NFL Picks Week 11: Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints

Betting Overview

The New Orleans Saints (6-3) have won two in a row and have pulled to within a game of the first-place Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South.

In a strange twist, the Saints have been doing most of their damage on defense and special teams as opposed to employing the powerful offense that won them the Super Bowl last year. The Saints are 3-2 at home and trying desperately to hold on to their chances of winning the division, or just making the playoffs.

The Seattle Seahawks (5-4) are the leaders in the NFC West.

But the division is so weak that the Seahawks cannot seem to get any respect for their wins. Seattle is the only team in the division with a .500 or better record, and they are also the only team in the division with more that one road win.

The Seahawks are also the only division leader in all of football with a negative point differential at -33.

Offense

The NFL betting crowd is used to the New Orleans Saints racking up NFL scores on the opposition and pounding them into submission.

The Saints do have the seventh-ranked offense in all of football, but it lacks that prolific punch that made the Saints so dangerous last season. When the offense does click, it lives up to all of the NFL predictions heaped on it in the preseason.

Quarterback Drew Brees is well on his way to a 4,500 passing-yard season and well over 30 touchdowns.

With the persistent injuries to Reggie Bush, the Saints have no running game. Their rushing attack is ranked No. 25 in the league, and the leading rusher is Chris Ivory with 382 yards and no touchdowns.

The Seahawks are winning games on defense and special teams. That can be said because, even when quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is playing, the team has the No. 30-ranked defense in the league.

Hasselbeck only has 1,744 passing yards and seven touchdowns this season. The Seahawks' most prolific runner is Justin Forsett, with only 397 rushing yards.

The Seahawks are not going to be able to stand toe-to-toe with any team in a shootout, much less the Saints.

Defense

The Seahawks on defense operate as much on luck as they do any talent.

They have the No. 14-ranked run defense, but their overall defensive ranking is No. 27. The Seahawks have been able to pin teams deep with their special-teams play and then be opportunistic with turnovers on defense.

The way to beat the Seahawks soundly, as the New York Giants showed two weeks ago, is to protect the ball and throw it deep. The Saints have no problem throwing the ball deep, but protecting the ball has been a bit of an issue this season.

The Saints have the third-ranked defense in the league, and they are first against the pass. That means that New Orleans will immediately be able to eliminate any real weapons that the Seahawks have.

The Saints defense gets to the quarterback, and can shut down the run.

The Bottom Line

The Saints are just too much for the Seahawks.

With Matt Hasselbeck kept in check by the Saints defense, the Seahawks will have to resort to trying to establish a running game that has not been on track all season long.

Pick: New Orleans Saints