College Football Week 10 Picks: Predictions for All the Big Games
Week 10 in this year's college football season offers plenty of games that will shake up both the rankings and the conference races, and it's time to take our picks.
Will 'Bama overcome LSU on the road? Who will win the Mountain West showdown between TCU and Utah? Who will keep its slim Rose Bowl hopes alive between Arizona and Stanford?
Answers to all these questions and more lie ahead.
Air Force at Army
1 of 13
Line: Air Force -7
Why Air Force Can Win: The Falcons still have one of the top rushing attacks in the country, and they even managed to give No. 5 Utah a scare last week. Army's rush defense has good numbers, but it hasn't faced an opponent like Air Force yet this season. Navy has won the last eight games in the series.
Why Army Can Win: Army needs a win in order to become become bowl eligible and to have a shot at the Commander Trophy--it has accomplished neither since 1996. Army is tied for fifth in the country in turnover margin, which gives it an advantage over an Air Force team with a negative turnover margin.
Prediction: Air Force for the ninth year in a row. It'll win by 10.
Texas at Kansas State
2 of 13
Line: Texas -3.5
Why Texas Can Win: If it feels like it's been a while since Texas was this irrelevant, you are not mistaken. Ever since Mack Brown arrived in 1998, the Longhorns have won at least nine games every season. This year looks like it's going to buck the trend.
Texas has a tough one on its hands at Kansas State. On the plus side, its rush defense, which is second best in the conference, matches up pretty well against Kansas State's rushing attack.
Why Kansas State Can Win: It almost seems like every lesser known football program is making a name for itself this year by beating Texas. You can bet that Kansas State would love to be the latest to do so. The Wildcats need to get the ball into Daniel Thomas's hands as much as possible, as he is seventh in the FBS in rushing. Texas does have a tough rush defense, but Kansas State simply cannot move the ball through the air all that well.
Prediction: Take Kansas State to upset the Longhorns at home. K-State by five.
No. 12 Missouri at Texas Tech
3 of 13
Line: Missouri -4.5
Why Missouri Can Win: Blaine Gabbert and company were totally shut down by one of the nation's top defenses in Nebraska last week. Heck of a way to see one's perfect season come to an end.
Lucky for the Tigers this week, they're up against quite possibly the worst defense in the Big 12. In addition, the Red Raiders don't have Roy Helu, Jr. on their team.
Why Texas Tech Can Win: The Red Raiders are probably still reeling from last week's game, in which Texas A&M burned them for 623 yards of offense. They need to do their best Nebraska imitation on Saturday, and hope they can get to Gabbert. Missouri's offensive line has allowed only 13 sacks all season, but six of them came against Nebraska last week.
Prediction: Missouri should be able to pillage the Red Raiders. Missouri by 10.
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North Carolina at No. 24 Florida State
4 of 13
Line: Florida State -10.5
Why North Carolina Can Win: The Tar Heels barely escaped their game against William & Mary with a win last week, needing 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to get the job done. They can't expect that on the road against the Seminoles. Johnny White rushed for a career-high 164 yards in that game, but his success is no sure thing against the ACC's second-best rush defense. North Carolina's best hope lies in a strong defensive effort, as it has held five of its last six opponents to fewer than 20 points.
Why Florida State Can Win: The Seminoles will come into this game angry, after dropping a conference tilt to NC State that they probably should have won. Quarterback Christian Ponder will need to erase his bad fumble from his mind and play mistake-free football against another very tough defense. The Seminoles won't abandon their three-headed rushing attack any time soon, and North Carolina's run defense is definitely vulnerable.
Prediction: Florida State will win, but last week's loss makes that spread look too big. They'll only win by seven.
No. 8 Oklahoma at Texas A&M
5 of 13
Line: Oklahoma -3.5
Why Oklahoma Can Win: DeMarco Murray may be forced to give up some of the burden in this one. Texas A&M's rush defense is surprisingly stingy. It gives up an average of just 94.9 rushing yards per game.
Landry Jones should be up to the challenge, however, as he is coming off a career game against Colorado. He threw for a career-high 453 yards and four touchdowns. He should be able to come out on top against an Aggies defense that allows more than 250 yards passing per game.
Why Texas A&M Can Win: The Aggies have won two straight games after losing three in a row. And even though they've lost starting running back Christine Michael to a broken leg, new starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill racked up a school-record 449 yards passing in last week's 45-27 win over Texas Tech. They'll need a similar performance if they expect to match points with Jones and Oklahoma.
Prediction: This game isn't as close as 3.5 points. Oklahoma by 12.
No. 7 Nebraska at Iowa State
6 of 13
Line: Nebraska -18
Why Nebraska Can Win: It seems like Nebraska's high-powered offense evolves every week. First, Taylor Martinez throws five touchdowns against Oklahoma State, and then Roy Helu, Jr. rushes for more than 300 yards against Missouri. How exactly they will torch Iowa State and its soft defense is the only remaining question. The Huskers' best bet is to keep it on the ground, as the Cyclones give up more than 190 yards rushing per game.
Why Iowa State Can Win: The Cyclones beat the only team that beat Nebraska this year, Texas. That has to serve as some motivation. Regardless, what they can muster on offense won't matter if they can't find a way to contain Nebraska's explosive offense. Helu, Jr. isn't likely to come anywhere close to repeating his performance from last week, and that's essential to Iowa State's success.
Prediction: 18 points is pretty thick, to be sure, but Nebraska will win by 21.
No. 21 Baylor at No. 17 Oklahoma State
7 of 13
Line: Oklahoma State -8
Why Baylor Can Win: The Bears have won three straight, and are in the Top 25 for the first time since 1993. They could be in for a feast against an Oklahoma State defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in the Big 12 in both yardage and points allowed.
Quarterback Robert Griffin III is the man on offense for the Bears, ranking eighth in the FBS with 288.0 passing yards per game. Passing defense is definitely not the Cowboys' strength, as they are second to last in the Big 12 with 272.6 passing yards allowed per game.
Why Oklahoma State Can Win: The Cowboys will have leading receiver Justin Blackmon back for this game. He's first in the nation in receiving yards per game and touchdown catches. His team needed him last week, as they managed just about half of their usual point total against Kansas State. Kendall Hunter should be able to put up great numbers against a Baylor defense that gives up over 150 yards on the ground every game.
Prediction: Oklahoma State has more weapons on offense than Baylor, and will win by 14.
No. 18 Arkansas at No. 19 South Carolina
8 of 13
Line: South Carolina -4.5
Why Arkansas Can Win: Conference passing leader Ryan Mallett will have his best opportunity to excel this season, as the Gamecocks allow more yards through the air than any team in the SEC. And Mallett has a hot hand. He threw for a school-record 409 yards and three touchdowns in the Razorbacks' 49-14 win over Vanderbilt last Saturday. He'll be without top target Greg Childs, however.
Why South Carolina Can Win: South Carolina can all but wrap up the SEC East with a win in this game. But it's going to have to get after Mallett to avoid getting into a barn burner. The Gamecocks had seven sacks against Alabama, which was crucial to their victory. If they can get that kind of pressure on Mallett, they should be okay. Freshman Marcus Lattimore can also help keep Arkansas' offense off the field, as he's coming off the best game of his young career last week against Tennessee.
Prediction: Take Arkansas to upset the Gamecocks. The Razorbacks will win by 10.
No. 15 Arizona at No. 13 Stanford
9 of 13
Line: Stanford -9.5
Why Arizona Can Win: While Matt Scott did fine filling in for Nick Foles the last two weeks, it will be a plus to have Foles back as the starter in what will be Arizona's toughest game of the year. Foles was the Pac-10's leading passer when he went down three weeks ago, and the Wildcats are going to need him if they expect to match Andrew Luck and the Cardinal at home. However, they can ill afford their pass coverage miscues against UCLA to carry over into this week, facing arguably the nation's best quarterback.
Why Stanford Can Win: The Cardinal is off to its best start in 40 years, and its been particularly hot lately. It racked up 470 yards and 41 points against Washington, and yielded just 107 total yards. Stanford boasts the nation's fifth best scoring offense. Arizona is seventh in the nation in scoring defense, but showed plenty of vulnerability last week against UCLA.
Prediction: Stanford should be able to dominate at home. Cardinal by 14.
Hawaii at No. 4 Boise State
10 of 13
Line: Boise State -21
Why Hawaii Can Win: Many will be quick to assert that Boise State's conference opponents are nothing more than a bad joke, but Hawaii is an exception. Behind the nation's top passing attack, led by Bryant Moniz, the Warriors have gotten off to a perfect start in WAC play. Hawaii was actually the last team to beat Boise State in a regular season game, besting the Broncos 39-27 in 2007.
Why Boise State Can Win: The Broncos are coming off one of their sloppiest games of their 2010 season against Louisiana Tech, in which they generated just 394 yards of offense and committed two turnovers. But they remain a serious contender thanks to solid play on both sides of the ball.
They're third in the nation in both scoring (13.4 points per game) and total defense (236.4 yards per game). Quarterback Kellen Moore has torched Hawaii in the past, with eight touchdowns and no picks in two games.
Prediction: Boise State will win, but 21 points is a heck of spread against a high-scoring offense like Hawaii's. The Broncos will only win by 14.
No. 3 TCU at No. 5 Utah
11 of 13
Line: TCU -5
Why TCU Can Win: The Frogs' Andy Dalton and Ed Wesley earn much of the team's acclaim, but their defense is the reason the Frogs have been able to leap all the way to No. 3. They boast the nation's top defense, giving up just 8.7 points and 217.3 yards per game.
It's not going to be easy for them to maintain numbers like that on the road at Utah, where they have never won. If they can neutralize Utah's high-power offense, you have to like their chances to win a low-scoring game behind Dalton and Wesley.
Why Utah Can Win: As mentioned above, the Utes definitely have history on their side. But they're coming off a pretty mediocre effort against Air Force, in which they needed five turnovers to secure a win. They can't rely on that kind of sloppiness from the Frogs, and they need to be just as focused on not creating turnovers of their own on offense.
Prediction: TCU is going to take this one by seven.
Washington at No. 1 Oregon
12 of 13
Line: Oregon -36
Why Washington Can Win: All things considered, they can't. In the words of Steve Sarkisian, Washington hit "rock bottom" last week, and are going into Oregon without Jake Locker. Leading rusher Chris Polk has been held to 82 yards on 27 carries over the last two weeks, and there's just little hope of the Huskies being able to keep the Ducks offense off the field.
Why Oregon Can Win: It's the Ducks. They're at home. They're playing a down-and-out opponent. With Auburn playing an FCS opponent on Saturday, the Ducks really don't even need to win big in order to hold onto their No. 1 spot.
Prediction: Oregon by 42.
No. 6 Alabama at No. 10 LSU
13 of 13
Line: Alabama -6.5
Why Alabama Can Win: Alabama, the highest-ranked one-loss team, is coming off an idle weekend, but is also coming off quite possibly its best half of football all season. The Tide took a close game against Tennessee and turned it into a laugher, scoring 28 unanswered points in the second half.
Julio Jones, Mark Ingram and all of their other offensive weapons will be neutralized by an LSU defense that gives up fewer yards than any team in the SEC (277.7 per game). However, the Tide have the second most interceptions in the SEC, and the Tigers' issues at quarterback have been very well documented.
Why LSU Can Win: Alabama can kill you on offense with any number of weapons, but its rushing game is definitely its bread and butter. While the Tigers were certainly torched by Cam Newton, they have the capability to contain 'Bama's much more conventional rush attack.
Aside from that, LSU's home-field advantage should be huge. If they can hang in there on the road against the nation's current No. 2 team, then they can certainly do so against the nation's No. 5 team. They need to find a way to move the ball on offense, however, as Alabama's defense is not nearly as porous as that of Auburn.
Prediction: Alabama will win, but it won't cover. Tide by three.
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