NASCAR and NHRA: Chase Playoff Analysis

You may not be a fan of the playoff systems used by NASCAR and NHRA, but it can't be argued with much validity that insurmountable point leads create drama.

Look no further than the NASCAR Nationwide Series and Camping World Truck Series, where drama is devoid because of a non-chase or playoff-absent points system.

Todd Bodine has a commanding 216-point lead in NCWTS, and Brad Keselowksi has a crushing 485-point advantage in NNS. With only three races left, it's almost crowning time.

NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup is a 10-race playoff system that was devised to create an exciting finish. A 10-race playoff for 12 finalists who are closely matched in points creates an elimination scheme that sorts out potential winners quickly.

This year the list of potential winners close in points midway through the Chase was more numerous than in the past, and that has made for entertaining competition.

With three races left in NASCAR’s Chase, it's really down to a three-man race. Jimmie Johnson holds a slim 14-point lead over second-place Denny Hamlin. Kevin Harvick is an obvious threat in third place with a scant 38 points in his way.

Jeff Gordon is back 207 points in fourth place, while Kyle Busch is in fifth place with a 230-point deficit. For Gordon or Busch to win the championship, the leader or leaders would almost have to DNQ or crash out early in any of the three remaining races.

It's unlikely that any of the top three are going to finish mid-pack or back for three consecutive races. That could ruin their run for the crown. One may slip out of the top three with a substantial crash in any of the three races, but it's unlikely that all three would have the same fate.

Luck could play a huge role still, but the big question mark—Talladega crashing—is over. The "Big One" there is notorious for spoiling point advantages.

In NHRA playoffs, the Countdown to One is down to one race. Their six-race playoff system has nearly run its course. Like NASCAR’s playoffs, a good portion of playoff excitement has transpired.

NHRA has four pro classes: Top Fuel Dragster, Funny Car, Pro Stock Car and Pro Stock Motorcycle. Half of the classes have a nail-biting point spread, and half are almost out of reach. Even that scenario beats a ho-hum point-padded season lead that has no final excitement.

All four classes are realistically down to two-man competitions.

Larry Dixon will be a hard target for Tony Schumacher because of his 85-point lead in Top Fuel. Dixon would have to go out in the first round and Schumacher would have to go on to win the last race.

Schumacher has won one championship by garnering an extra 20 points by setting a new record in Pomona, but doing that twice is not expected.

Cory McClenthan is back 106 points in third place, but only perfect runs, extreme math and a huge dose of back luck could move him to the championship prize.

Greg Anderson has a comfortable 115-point lead over Mike Edwards in Pro Stock Car and would have to not qualify to lose his grip on the big trophy. Anderson is a habitual qualifier.

So the most thrilling NHRA classes to follow during the last race will be Funny Car and Pro Stock Motorcycle.

In Funny Car, 14-time champion John Force is in a fierce point battle with young Matt Hagan, who has the first place spot. Only 37 points separate them, and they face a 138-point possibility available in the last four rounds. That point math includes setting a record.

In Pro Stock Motorcycle a very similar situation exists between leader Andrew Hines and surprising youngster Louis Tonglet, as they will go the last race with only 34 points separating them.

As stated, not all fans wanted the playoff system change, but taking a look at the math and final races, the Chase formula has created championship drama.

Playoffs have worked fine for the NFL and MLB for many decades, and it appears playoff systems work for motorsports as well.

Still, some fans cling to the belief it was better math under the old system.

Listen for the cheers at Homestead and Pomona. When the championship is on the line, there’s a reason to sit on the edge of a seat. When the championship has been determined a race or two before the finale, the running of the last race takes on a lame-duck façade.

Photo credit: Gary Larsen @ Racetake.com