NFL Rankings, Locks and Upsets: Pittsburgh Tops SRS while Giants Fall To No. 9

The big news is that Pittsburgh is back on top. I changed part of this to show quality wins and all losses, similar to my college football article.  I've also included a lock, close game and upset pick at the bottom.

How are these rankings formed?

The whole point of me starting a ranking system 15 years ago was to remove any and all bias for college football (that’s what they all say).  So I decided to try my list with the pros as well. 

Full disclosure: My favorite team is the St. Louis Rams. 

I've tried to come up with the rationale that every sports announcer I've ever heard brings up.  Conference rankings (check), road vs. away (check) and who did you play (double-check).  As I said before, I've been doing this privately for over 15 years, and every year there have been slight changes to it. 

Usually by the end of the season I see more improvements that I can make and I apply them to the following season.  By no stretch is it perfect, but I think it’s getting there.

So what are the specifics?  It starts by generating a ranking for each division.  This is done by generating a win-loss record for each division against the other divisions.  This is modified by determining who those wins are against.

This is mostly because of college football's big-time teams tending to play cream puffs to build up their record, so I'm going to use a college football example:  The Big Ten loses some of its power by scheduling a lot of MAC Teams.  I then take a ranking of that value. 

As of 10/12/10, the divisional rankings are as follows:

1.  AFC North (LW: four)

2.  NFC East (two)

3.  AFC West (six)

4.  AFC South (one)

4.  NFC South (seven)

5.  AFC East (six)

7.  NFC North (three)

8.  NFC West (eight)

After determining the division rankings, I generate values that a team would receive for playing another team.  Values are generated for a home win, a home loss, a road win and a road loss.  Each of the values are derived from the home win, which is formed by taking the team's place in the division (first, second, third, etc.), inverting it so more points are awarded for beating the better team and multiplying it by the inverse conference ranking. 

For example, if the first place team in the first place division is Baltimore.  If a team beats Baltimore on the road, they will earn 64 points.  This is because Baltimore is in first place ( inverse=four multiplied by inverse conference ranking = eight, and multiplied by two because it would be on the road, eight times four times two equals 64.)

Losses are similar, though there is no inverting.  So if a team loses, it will only cause them to lose one point (place in conference = one, conference rank = one, one times one equals one).  A home win is the same as a road win, except the value is not multiplied by two, and a home loss takes the road loss and multiplies it by two.  

Did you follow all of that?  If not, don’t worry about it; just know that it is under constant improvement, I’ll go in reverse order, like a top-10 list:

R	Team	Record	Pts	LW	Result (pts gained)	Quality Wins	Losses
10.	Tampa Bay	(4-2)	26	--	W vs. St. Louis (two)	@Cincinnati	New Orleans Pittsburgh
9.	New York Giants	(5-2)	43	1	W @ Dallas (14)	@Houston	Tennessee @Indianapolis
8.	Atlanta	(5-2)	51	--	W vs. Cincinnati (16)	@New Orleans	@Philadelphia @Pittsburgh
7.	New York Jets	(5-1)	54	8	BYE	@Denver	Baltimore
6.	New England	(5-1)	73	--	W @ San Diego (24)	@San Diego Baltimore	@Jets
5.	Indianapolis	(4-2)	94	2	BYE	@Washington Giants @Denver Kansas City	@Jacksonville @Houston
4.	Houston	(4-2)	97	3	BYE	@Washington @Oakland Kansas City	Dallas Giants
3.	Tennessee	(5-2)	99	6	W vs. Philadelphia (21)	@Giants Philadelphia	Denver Pittsburgh
2.	Baltimore	(5-2)	102	5	W vs. Buffalo (three)	@Pittsburgh @Jets	@Cincinnati @New England
1.	Pittsburgh	(5-1)	106	4	W @ Miami (12)	@Tennessee @Tampa Bay	Baltimore

Lock

New England over Minnesota

Great Game

Seattle @ Oakland

Upset

Jacksonville over Dallas