College Football Bowl Projections For Week 8: Is Auburn Too Strong To Stop?
Welcome to theย eighth installment of the weeklyย Bleacher Report Bowl Projection series.
Summary and analysis is presented for all 35ย postseason bowl games.
In the following pages you will find specific articlesย regarding theย 20 highest-payingย bowls, each detailing how the teams were chosen and who will be the most likely contenders for these contests.
The remainingย 15 bowls reward participants with payoutsย of less than one million dollars. These contests are listedย as a group on page two of this article.
The choicesย presented here are updatedย on a weekly basis. They include the outcome of past games and a team's upcoming schedule.
Reader participation is strongly encouraged each-and-every week. All followers should feel free to leave comments regarding their impressions of bowl matchups and how these games may develop over the course of the season.
Participants that leave comments will make a difference in what schools are selected for the bowl games. Final analysis and predictions will be a combination of the readers' suggestions and the writer's personal opinions.ย
Theย bowl presentation order reflectsย the amount ofย moneyย paid toย schools for playing in the game.
Information concerningย conference affiliations to specificย bowl gamesย is part of each analysis.
We kindly ask all readers to provide their ideas and predictions of whichย teamsย go to these contests. Only with your assistance may we gather aย consensus regardingย theย continuing developments and provide the most accurate predictions possible.
Now that we've covered the bases, let us take a look at how the events of last Saturday affected your team and its postseason destination.
The 15 Bowls Paying $1 Million Or Less To Participants
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In the traditional order of bowl projections, the games would be listed in order from the first played to theย last played.ย Unfortunately, this sort of methodย removes theย element of money paid to the schoolsย and ignores the success ofย teams during the season.
The 35ย bowl games listed here are inย order of the amount ofย money paid to the participants.
By using this system, we do not devalue theย Sugarย Bowlย or increase the prestige of theย Birmingham Bowlย simply based upon what date the bowl game takes place.
We begin with the followingย 15ย bowls whoย pay out $1 million or less toย the schools invited.
Bowlย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dateย ย ย ย ย Placeย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Payoutย ย ย ย ย Conf. Tie-Insย ย ย ย ย ย Projected Matchup
No.35: Newย Orleansย ย Dec. 18ย Newย Orleansย $325,000ย ย Sun Belt,ย CUSAย ย ย Troy vs.ย SMU
No.34: Texasย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dec. 29ย Houstonย ย ย ย ย ย ย $612,500 ย Big Ten,ย Big 12ย ย ย Indianaย vs.ย Kansas St.
No.33: New Mexicoย ย Dec. 18ย ย Albuquerqueย $750,000ย MWC,ย WACย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย BYUย vs.ย Fresno State
No.32: Armed Forcesย Dec. 30ย ย Dallasย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย $750,000ย ย CUSA, MWCย ย ย ย ย ย Tulsa vs.ย Army*
No.31: Hawaiiย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dec. 24ย ย Honoluluย ย ย ย ย ย $750,000ย ย CUSA, WACย ย ย ย ย ย Houstonย vs. Hawaii
No.30: Poinsettiaย ย ย ย ย ย Dec. 23ย ย San Diegoย ย ย ย $750,000ย ย MWC, Navyย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย San Diego St.ย vs. Navy
No.29: Kraftย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Jan. 9ย ย ย ย San Fran.ย ย ย ย ย $750,000ย ย ย WAC, Pac-10ย ย ย ย Nevada vs. Washington
No.28: GMACย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Jan. 6ย ย ย ย Mobileย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย $750,000ย ย MAC, Sun Beltย ย ย Temple vs. M. Tenn. St.
No.27: Humanitarianย ย Dec. 18 ย Boiseย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย $750,000ย ย ย WAC, MACย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Idaho vs.ย Ohio U.
No.26: Little Caesarsย Dec. 26ย Detroitย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย $750,000ย ย MAC, Big Tenย ย ย ย ย N. Illinoisย vs. N'western
No.25: Birminghamย ย ย Jan. 8ย ย ย Birminghamย ย ย $900,000ย SEC, Bigย Eastย ย ย ย Kentucky vs.ย South Fla.
No.24: Meinekeย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dec. 31ย Charlotteย ย ย ย ย $1,000,000 ย ACC, Big Eastย ย ย ย ย UNC vs.ย Louisvilleย
No.23: Eagleย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dec. 29ย Washingtonย $1,000,000ย ย ACC, CUSAย ย ย ย ย ย ย Marylandย vs. E. Carolina
No.22: St. Peteย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dec. 21ย St. Peteย ย ย ย ย ย ย $1,000,000ย ย ย Big East, CUSAย Syracuseย vs.ย Sou. Miss.
No.21: MAACOย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dec. 22ย Las ย Vegasย ย ย $1,000,000ย ย MWC, Pac-10ย ย ย ย TCUย vs.ย California
The choice for the MAACO is TCU based upon the analysis that Utah will defeat TCU in a battle of unbeatens for the Mountain West crown.
Void of theirย high BCS ranking, the Horned Frogs could tumble down the ladder in the manner outlined. Likewise, if Utah loses its homeย contest with TCU, the Utes will be placed in thisย spot for the MWC.ย ย
In either case,ย Californiaย will make a highly desirable opponent in the MAACO.
The St. Petersburg Bowl may attract the surprising Orange of Syracuse to tangle withย traditionally strong Southern Mississippi of Conference USA in one of the more intriguing clashes of "North versus South" in the Bowl picture.
The Kraft Hunger Bowl in San Francisco could find itself with one of the most interesting of the lesser-paying bowl games with Jake Locker and Washington going up against "The Pistol" offense of Nevada.
The Birmingham Bowl sets up another unique challenge for the SEC against a Big East opponent while the New Mexico Bowl continues to labor under the pressure that comes from being theย firstย of all postseason contests each year.
The Armed Forces Bowl may turn to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point if no viable Mountain West opponent is available forย nearby Tulsa of Conference USA.
Troy will win the Sun Belt Conference and opt for the bright lights and night life of New Orleans. The Trojansย may face a strong opponentย in Coach June Jones and his SMU Mustangs.ย
The GMAC features a nice location for the up-and-coming Temple Owls to demonstrate their balanced attack against Sun Belt-entry Middle Tennessee State.
The Eagle Bank, Hawaii, Poinsettia, New Orleans, Humanitarian,ย Little Caesars and Meineke Bowlsย are examples of choices purelyย ofย more localย interest to fill seats.
The Texas Bowl may sound more like a basketball game with the Hoosiers and Wildcats.
In the following pages you will find the 20 bowl games paying outย more than $1 million to those fortunate enough to receive invitations.
No.20: The Independence Bowl
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Date:ย December 27, 2010
Place:ย Shreveport, Louisiana
Payout: $1,100,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย Mountain West No.3 vs. ACC No.7
Projected Matchup:ย Air Forceย vs. Ga Tech
The Yellow Jackets provide the name recognitionย under the new ACC contract with the Independence Bowl.
Air Force isย recognized nationally as well, and providesย an outstanding representative under the new contract the Mountain West Conference securedย with the Independence Bowl.
If the Falcons stun highly-ranked Utahย and the Yellow Jackets take down highly-regarded Virginia Tech, both schools will move up to higher-paying bowls.
No.19: Dallas Football Classic
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Date:ย January 1, 2011
Place:ย Dallas, Texas
Payout: $1,200,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย Big Ten No.ย 7 vs. Bigย 12 No. 8
Projected Matchup:ย Penn Stateย vs. Baylor
The Bears from Waco are enjoying a fine turnaround season and should be rewarded as the host team in the new Dallas Football Classic, played at the site of the old Cotton Bowl stadium.
Penn State and coach Joe Paterno will bring national exposure to the inaugural event.
No.18: The Music City Bowl
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Date:ย December 30, 2010
Place:ย Nashville, Tennessee
Payout: $1,600,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย SEC No. 7 vs. ACC No.6
Projected Matchup:ย Mississippi vs. N.C. State
The two premier southern football conferences, SEC and ACC, ย meet in the interesting locations ofย Nashville and Atlanta during the postseason.
While the Chick-fil-A Bowl in Georgiaย produces a more "cosmopolitan" contest, it is the Music City in Tennesseeย whichย has providedย actionย demonstrating the true "Hatfield and McCoys"ย attitude ofย the SEC and ACC.
Two ancient names in Dixie football lore, "State" and "Ole Miss",ย should be plucked from the field to do battle in this year's postseason gala.
The Wolfpack and Rebels will get down and dirty with the best of them. As southerners like to say, "this one could get nasty in a hurry."
Expect this game to go down to the wire as the Music City Bowl gameย usually does not disappoint.
No.17: The Liberty Bowl
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Date:ย December 31, 2010
Place:ย Memphis, Tennessee
Payout: $1,700,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย SEC No.ย 8 vs.ย Conference USA No. 1
Projected Matchup:ย Arkansas vs. Central Florida
The storied Liberty Bowl usually provides a measurement for theย Conference USA champion to match strength with the SEC.
Central Florida has the most complete team in CUSA and a coach in George O'Leary (see picture)ย who knows how to win with defense.
Arkansas fansย would fill the stadium, and the Razorbacksย mayย requireย an offensiveย fireworks display in order to escape the clutches of the Conference USA champion.
No.16: The Sun Bowl
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Date:ย December 31, 2010
Place:ย El Paso, Texas
Payout: $1,900,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย ACC No. 4 vs.ย Pac-10 No. 4
Projected Matchup:ย Clemson vs. Oregon State
In the first year of the ACC contract with the venerable Sun Bowl, the Tigers of Clemson should be chosen due to their traveling fanbase and an entertaining brand of football.
Oregon Stateย will provide an exciting opponent. One who is battle hardened after facing Boise State, TCU, and Arizona all away from home.
The inside storyย in this clash would match two former Alabama Crimson Tide football players against each other. Beavers coach Mike Riley played for Bear Bryant and Tigers coach Dabo Swinney played for Gene Stallings.
Perhaps it should be nicknamed "The Alabama Alumni Bowl" for 2010.
Roll Tide.
No.15: The Pinstripe Bowl
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Date:ย December 30, 2010
Place: The Bronx in New York City (Yankee Stadium)
Payout: $2,000,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย Big East No. 4 vs. Bigย 12 No. 7
Projected Matchup:ย Notre Dame vs. Texas Techย ย
New Yorkย has all of the support systemsย in place for the newย Pinstripe Bowl, and the location is sure to become one of the most popular postseasonย destinations.
The Pinstripe willย pay $2 millionย to its participants, chosen from two BCS conferences as a tie-in.
Notre Dameย isย eligibleย for Big East bowl connections. The Irish are also listed asย a backup team from the Big 12 in case the conference cannot produce a qualifying team.
New Yorkersย expect two big names to be responsible for entertaining residents of the Big Apple.
The situation for Notre Dame is precarious as the Irish must finish with at least six wins to qualify for a postseason visit.
Texasย Tech brings a balanced team led by coach Tommy Tuberville, whoย knows how to handle big time situations. The Red Raiders have the kind of football reputation New Yorkers demand.
No.14: The Champs Sports Bowl
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Date:ย December 28, 2010
Place: Orlando, Florida
Payout: $2,130,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย ACC No. 3 vs. Bigย East No. 2
Projected Matchup:ย Florida Stateย vs. West Virginia
The new Champs Sports Bowl contract brings in the No. 2 team from the Big East to face a highly-regarded ACC opponent.
FSUย is capable of winning the ACC and going to the Orange Bowl. If they do notย qualify for the Orange Bowl, expect theย Seminolesย to head forย Orlando as a consolation prize.
Theย Mountaineers of West Virginia may just come up short in the Big East and arrive in townย for a rematch of last season's Gator Bowl contest.
No.13: The Holiday Bowl
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Date:ย Dec. 30, 2010
Place:ย San Diego, California
Payout: $2,200,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย Pac-10 No. 3 vs. Big 12 No. 5
Projected Matchup:ย Arizona vs.ย Texas
Theย Longhorns have an opportunity toย correct their problems and finish strong.ย
Arizona isย capable of going to a BCS postseason affair.
With these two schools, the Holiday would have anย interestingย match with teams that can attract a televised audience and fill the stands.
No.12: The Alamo Bowl
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Date:ย Dec. 29, 2010
Place:ย San Antonio, Texas
Payout: $2,225,000
Conference Tie-Ins: Pac-10 No. 2 vs. Big 12 No. 3
Projected Matchup:ย Stanford vs.ย Oklahomaย
The Alamo Bowl has a new contract that provides theย San Antonio classic with the second-place team from the Pac-10.
Stanford looks like the most likely candidateย from the West.
Oklahomaย is a powerfulย team, one who can and will put points on the board.ย
Both teams are dangerous and could wreck the best laid plans of future opponents.
These twoย potentialย BCS squads shouldย make for aย very attractiveย Alamo Bowl.
No.11: The Gator Bowl
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Date: January 1, 2011
Place: Jacksonville, Florida
Payout: $2,750,000
Conference Tie-Ins: SEC No. 6 vs. Big Ten No. 4
Projected Matchup:ย Florida vs.ย Illinois
This is the first year of theย Big Tenย and SEC tie-in contract with the Gator Bowl. A top-quality matchup will be a necessity for officials, sponsors and local businesses.
Floridaย canย sell out the Jacksonville stadium.ย
Illinoisย can bring huge Chicago-area media exposure.
The clash between these two teams also would provide former Florida headman, andย current Illinois coach, Ron Zook an opportunity to revisit old friends.
That remark is made with tongue planted firmly in cheek.
Such aย meeting in Jacksonvilleย wouldย make forย a mostย interestingย contestย onย New Year's Day.
No.10: The Outback Bowl
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Date: January 1, 2011
Place: Tampa, Florida
Payout: $3,100,000
Conference Tie-Ins: SEC No. 4 vs. Big Ten No. 3
Projected Matchup:ย South Carolina vs. Michigan State
Coach Steve Spurrier has done a fine job of bringing along the Gamecock program to compete for an SEC championship.
Were it not for squandering an 18-point halftime lead at Kentucky, the Gamecocks would be in the thick of the BCS top 10 rankings.
Michigan State has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, winningย games withย execution under stressful situations.
Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio played football for theย South Carolina Gamecocksย in theย 1970s.
The Spartans' leader should welcomeย the opportunityย ofย coachingย against his alma mater.
Consider this a bowl game which needs to be played.
No.9: The Chick-Fil-A Bowl
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Date: December 31, 2010
Place: Atlanta, Georgia
Payout: $3,250,000 for the ACC and $2,400,000 for the SEC
Conference Tie-Ins: ACC No. 2 vs. SEC No. 5
Projected Matchup:ย Miamiย vs.ย Georgia
If the Hurricanes fail to win the ACC, theyย should end up in Atlanta to face theย nearby Bulldogsย of Athens.
Bulldogs head coachย Mark Richt played quarterback for the Miami Hurricanes in college.
Georgia has turned the corner on its seasonย and looksย to be a strong finisher.
In the tradition ofย previous contestsย in theย Atlanta bowl, this one has a chance to be special.
No.8: The Insight Bowl
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Date: December 28, 2010
Place: Tempe, Arizona
Payout: $3,325,000
Conference Tie-Ins: Big Ten No. 5 vs. Big 12 No. 4
Projected Matchup:ย ย Michiganย vs. Oklahoma State
Since the Insight has become a big-money player in the bowl selection process, it will not be surprising to findย teams with a national following going into the desert to reap the rewards.
Theย Wolverines areย an attractive choice for any postseason event because they have an enormous following.
Theย Cowboys feature a high-wire act of an offense and are not likely to slow down this year.
With the big-money contract in their back pocket, this battle in the desertย could be one of the most exciting eventsย of the postseason.
No.7: The Cotton Bowl
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Date: January 7, 2011
Place: Arlington, Texas
Payout: $3,575,000
Conference Tie-Ins: SEC No. 3 vs. Big 12 No. 2
Projected Matchup:ย Missouri vs. Mississippi State
Theย Cotton Bowl, with its storied legacy and incomparable new surroundings, is on the verge of becoming a BCS bowl.
On the first Friday night in January, the Cotton Bowlย will beย the only game on the television and sponsors should expect some of the highest ratings in the postseason.
Ifย Missouri loses to Nebraska, the Cotton Bowl seems the apparent destination for the Tigers. Naturally, if they win that contest,ย the Fiesta isย the logicalย possibility for Mizzou.ย
The maroon Bulldogs from Starkville are demonstrating what can be accomplished when the right coach is in place.
Mississippi State is surprising team after team this season and should be rewarded withย a great bowl game invitation.ย
No.6: The Capital One Bowl
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Date: January 1, 2011
Place: Orlando, Florida
Payout: $4,250,000
Conference Tie-Ins: SEC No. 2 vs. Big Ten No. 2
Projected Matchup:ย LSU vs. Iowa
Two schools who could have easily met for the BCS title.
In the upper-stratosphere of non-BCS games, this one is as good as it gets.
The Tigers can still get here even if they lose to Alabama. If the Bayou Bengals defeat the Crimson Tide expect Alabama in this position and LSU in the BCS bowlย mix.
Iowa should upset Michigan State this week and secure the coveted No.2 Big Ten bowl position in the old "Citrus Bowl."
Expect nothing less than a thriller if these two tangle.
No.5: The Fiesta Bowl
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Date: January 1, 2011
Place: Glendale, Arizona
Payout: $17,000,000
Conference Tie-In: Big 12 No. 1ย vs. BCS At-Large Selection
Projected Matchup:ย Nebraska vs. Utah
The reasoning here is for the Cornhuskers to take out Missouri and win the Big 12 championship.
Provided Utah defeats Air Force,ย TCU,ย and Notre Dame, anย unbeatenย Utes squadย would be a mostย attractive selection forย the Fiesta.
If TCU defeats Utah,ย several possibilities exist forย the Horned Frogs, including playing in the BCS title game.
Playing only a hunch, let's go with Nebraska vs. Utah in the Fiesta Bowl.
No.4: The Orange Bowl
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Date: January 3, 2011
Place: Miami, Florida
Payout: $17,000,000
Conference Tie-In:ย ACC No. 1 vs. At-Large BCS Selection
Projected Matchup:ย Virginia Tech vs. Ohio State
In a close battle for the ACC crown, the rejuvenated VPI Gobblers appear to have the momentum toย win the title.
No disrespect to James Madison, but the Hokies were on a major disconsolate downer the week after losing a tight contest to mighty Boise State.
The VT of the past six weeks is the best team in the ACC.
The Orange Bowl will pick ahead of the Fiesta Bowl and choose a one-lossย Ohio State teamย as the at-large BCS opponent for the ACC Champs.
Should be a good one.ย
No.3: The Sugar Bowl
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Date:ย January 4, 2011
Place:ย New Orleans, Louisiana
Payout: $17,000,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย SEC No. 1 vs.ย BCS At-Large
Projected Matchup:ย Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
This is where the plot thickens.
Ifย the Sugarย Bowl loses itsย "tie-in" conference champion to the BCS title game, theyย can choose a qualifying at-large team as a replacement.
If that is theย case in 2010, a two loss Crimson Tide team would be scooped up as the first selection of the Sugar Bowl, given that Alabama beats LSU.
If theย Bayou Bengalsย defeat the Tide, theย projected SEC teams in Sugar and Capital Oneย would switch.
Pittsburgh looks to be the strongest Big East team. The conference champion of the Big Eastย qualifies for a BCS invitation.
Given the set of circumstances at present, Alabama vs. Pittsburgh appears to be a good possibility for the Sugar Bowl.ย
No.2: The Rose Bowl
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Date:ย January 1, 2011
Place: Pasadena, California
Payout: $17,000,000
Conference Tie-Ins: Pac-10 No. 1 vs. Big Ten No. 1ย
Projected Matchup:ย Wisconsin vs. Oregonย ย
The Badgers from Madisonย perform their dutiesย with textbook execution. For that reason, Wisconsin gets the nod to finish as theย regular season champion of the Big Ten.
Oregonย could rideย into November as an undefeated squad worthy of consideration for the BCS title game. But the Ducks have aย difficult schedule the rest of the season.
It appears there is enough competitionย to keepย the Ducksย in the Rose Bowl instead of Glendale.
No.1: The BCS Title Game
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The Date: January 10, 2011
The Place: Glendale, Arizona
Payout: $17,000,000
Conference Tie-Ins: None. No. 1 against No. 2 in the final regular season BCS Poll.
Projected Matchup:ย Boise State vs. Auburn
These two teams could end the season undefeated and ranked No. 1 and 2 in the final poll.
If that is the case,ย they will play for the BCS title regardless of whatย anyone else accomplishes during the 2010 season.
Boise State continues to defeat everyone it plays.
It is only a matter of time before other unbeatenย teams around them in the BCS pollย begin losing, which should put the Broncos in one of the top two positions in the final regularย season poll.
Auburn has a most difficult path ahead of it. If they survive unscathed, the Tigers are a lock for No.1 in the countryโfor this week at least.
The Cool Down Lap: The Readers Take Over
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Many thanks to Oregon supporter David Hedlind and Wisconsin guruย Carl Stine for taking the time to provide winners in specific bowl games.
Thanks also toย Brandon Hamblen and Dan Boone for giving us a complete breakdown of the bowl scenarios.
And, a heartfelt "thank you" to Bronco Dad, Tim Croley, andย the many othersย who provided informationย concerning the Bleacher Report Bowl Projection series.
A tally of the "Big Six" bowl games is in order. From the past week we find the consensus of readers who left commentsย as follows:
BCS National Championship: Oregon vs.ย Michigan Stateย
Rose Bowl:ย Ohio State vs.ย Boise Stateย
Sugar Bowl:ย Alabama vs. TCU
Orange Bowl:ย Miami vs. Auburn
Fiesta Bowl:ย Oklahoma vs.ย West Virginia
Capital Bowl:ย Arkansas vs. Iowa
Cotton Bowl:ย Missouri vs. LSUย
Sports fans,ย the bowl situation changes weekly. Just look at the results from last week when Missouri toppled Oklahoma, LSU lost to Auburn, West Virginia fell to Syracuse andย Iowa lost to Wisconsin.
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