Creature Vs. Creature: Picks and Predictions For The Main Card Of UFC 121
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to a very special edition of B/R's Creature Vs. Creature!
Normally, for these types of posts, two writers on Bleacher Report would put out their own opinion on what they think would happen in a particular bout at an upcoming event, but this time it's a little bit different.
Colton Whittemore and myself both agreed that the UFC 121 main card was just too stacked with exciting fights to pass up, so here's how this edition works:
Rather than analyze one fight on the card, we've decided that we'll analyze the entire main card from the first fight of the PPV broadcast to the epic Brock Lesnar/Cain Velasquez Heavyweight Title bout.
Below is what we individually had to say about the fights on the main card, and as always, we sure hope you enjoy this edition of Creature Vs. Creature!
Colton: First, let's start out with Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Brendan Schaub, a heavyweight fight taking place first on the Main Card.
Brendan Schaub has been an absolute juggernaut since losing to TUF 10 Champ Roy Nelson at the finale in December.
Since then, he has had two fights.
Both have ened within two minutes and both were by devastating KO.
Gabe Gonzaga, while he is inconsistent, has an impressive skill set, a skillset that includes world-class kickboxing, an outstanding top game and good submissions.
Other than a weak chin by Gonzaga, neither have shown many weaknesses. Dale, who do you have winning this fight, and why?
Dale: Well, first off, I have to say that this seems like a much more exciting way to start off the card than people might think.
I think as far as excitement, Heavyweights get really underscored just because of their size.
For this fight, I like Schaub in this fight.As good as Gonzaga is as a fighter, I just see him trying to stand with Schaub instead of using his forte, which is his BJJ. I'll pick Schaub winning by yet another first round TKO, but I don't see Gonzaga getting cut after this fight.
Colton: I disagree, most people actually pay to see heavyweights fight. I guarantee you if Brock Lesnar was a middleweight, UFC 116 wouldn't have garnered 1.16 million pay-per-view buys.
As far as Gonzaga trying to trade with Schaub, I think that he'll be smart enough to come up with a better gameplan than his fight against Junior dos Santos. I too have Schaub getting the KO, but it'll be a war, and if Gonzaga can mix it up on the feet, I actually think that he can confuse Schaub.
We need to remember, despite his success, Brendan Schaub has only half as many fights as Gonzaga. It will be interesting to see if Shane Carwin can lend some expertise; as we all remember, Carwin knocked Gonzaga out at UFC 96. I'm going to give Schaub the edge due to his boxing expertise and Gonzaga's weak chin, but if Gonzaga starts getting comfortable, watch out.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Brendan Schaub- Schaub by KO
Dale: That'll certainly be something everyone will be looking forward to, and from that exciting Heavyweight bout we move forward to a Light Heavyweight fight that has had people talking all over, which is "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Tito Ortiz taking on Matt "The Hammer" Hamill.
Now this one is an intriguing fight in that Hamill was once Ortiz's pupil on Season Three of The Ultimate Fighter, and he showed plenty of potential on the show. From the show onward, Hamill actually trained with Tito at Team Punishment and many people questioned how this fight came about.
I don't know if Hamill ever left Team Punishment, but I do know both men are some of the toughest wrestlers at 205, and while Hamill can finish on the feet as well as from the ground, Ortiz has some of the most vicious ground-and-pound in MMA, putting away the likes of Vitor Belfort and Forrest Griffin among others with it.
Ortiz just posted up a split-decision loss to Forrest Griffin at UFC 106 while Hamill earned a Majority Decision win over Keith Jardine. Colton, what do you think about this fight?
Colton: In my opinion this fight is the most likely to go to a decision on the entire fight card. As you stated, both fighters come from strong wrestling backgrounds.
The key to this fight, in my opinion, is which fighter can be more successful in using it. I actually am giving Ortiz a slight advantage in this fight due to his experience and quality bottom grappling skills.
Everyone saw the triangle that almost put Lyoto Machida away, and we also saw how Ortiz was able to negate Rashad Evans quality grappling when they met.
I think the key to this fight is if Matt Hamill is able to use his top control and negate Tito's submissions off of his back. If their wrestling manages to negate each other's, I think the advantage stays with Ortiz, if only due to his experience.
Either way you look at it, Tito has an advantage, and that's why I'm picking him to win by Unanimous Decision. What are your thoughts?
Dale: I could also see it going to a Unanimous Decision, but I honestly see a finish from Hamill. I don't know if Tito honestly thinks Hamill is the better wrestler or not, but I can say that I believe Hamill to be the better of the two standing up.
To me, Tito is the better wrestler of the two and as you said, he's also the more experienced, so anything Hamill goes for is probably something he's seen before. Therefore, I see Hamill actually losing the first two rounds -- a revised opinion than what I stated in a recent "10 questions" piece for UFC 121 -- and stunning Ortiz in the third round for a late TKO finish in what would otherwise be a tough fight for the pupil.
Colton: In that case, we'll be split down the middle.
Tito Ortiz (Colton) vs. Matt Hamill (Dale)
With that, we move onto the fight between Paulo Thiago and Diego Sanchez.
Diego Sanchez is coming off of back to back losses against BJ Penn and John Hathaway, at UFC 107 and UFC 114, respectively. Although he is a long time UFC veteran and one of the most charismatic fighters, Sanchez hasn't been given an easy bounce back fight.
Paulo Thiago, his opponent, only has 2 career losses and since his arrival in February of 2009, he has been a tough competitor in the UFC welterweight division, beating Josh Koscheck by KO, Jacob Volkmann by decision and Mike Swick by submission.
Although Sanchez is definitely the more powerful striker, Thiago has shown flashes of striking brilliance in the past, and against a reckless striker such as his opponent, he could land big.
Despite the striking prowess of both men, I see this fight ending on the canvas. Paulo Thiago is a phenomenal submission grappler, and I think he'll be able to get one on Diego. What are your thoughts, Dale?
Dale: I think this will be another one in which we'll be split down the middle for two reasons.
The first reason is the fact that a loss to Thiago puts Sanchez's UFC career in jeopardy, so the man needs to win and I think that could be something that brings out the Diego Sanchez we remember from his first Welterweight run.
The second reason is just the experience of Sanchez. I don't think anything Thiago brings to Sanchez is going to surprise him, especially on the ground -- and we all know that before Sanchez originally left the Greg Jackson camp, he had a BJJ Black belt under the man.
I say after this one, Sanchez goes back to his winning ways and although I do like Paulo Thiago, I think he'll be sent back to the drawing board one more time.
I'll take Sanchez handing Thiago another Unanimous Decision loss because I think Sanchez will control Thiago for all three rounds but he won't finish him.
Diego Sanchez (Dale) vs. Paulo Thiago (Colton)
Now we come to the co-main event of the night, which sees Jake Shields finally debut against Martin "The Hitman" Kampmann. Anyone who was able to catch Strikeforce: Nashville this past April has probably seen Shields in action.
Although the fight wasn't his most dominating performance, it did make for a solid comeback as Shields survived the deadly right hand of Dan Henderson in the first round and blended in his Wrestling with his Jiu-Jitsu to decimate Henderson for the remaining four rounds.
Striking has never exactly been the strong spot for Jake, and he'll need to have something in that department to contend with Kampmann, in my opinion.
The man is something of a master strategist -- when he sees his opponent, he knows their strengths and he looks for a way to neutralize them. He did so against Paulo Thiago at UFC 115 and I see him finding a way to neutralize Shields' wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu before spoiling Shields debut by getting a TKO win.
How do you feel about this one, Colton?
Colton: Before last Saturday, I was actually leaning towards Jake Shields. The man hasn't lost in 5 years, he's beat a lot of very big names- Paul Daley, Yushin Okami, and Dan Henderson come to mind, and he has the fighting style to grind wins, much like fellow welterweights Jon Fitch, Georges St. Pierre and Josh Koscheck.
Normally he would be favored astronomically, especially in my eyes. Now, what happened last Saturday to make me change my mind? Mike Pyle put a whupping on John Hathaway.
What's the significance in that, you say?
Mike Pyle was an underdog, and for good reason. John Hathaway, at the time, was undefeated, with notable UFC wins over Rick Story and Diego Sanchez.
Mike Pyle avoided the hype and owned him.
One thing Mike Pyle and Martin Kampmann have in common?
Randy Couture is in the corner when they fight, and hit me if I'm wrong, but Randy can coach a hell of a gameplan, and I fully expect Martin Kampmann to grind it out and hand Jake Shields his first loss in 5 years.
Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann (Colton, Dale)
This brings us to the main event. Brock Lesnar, UFC Heavyweight champion and world renowned badass is set to defend his title against undefeated contender Cain Velasquez.
Cain Velasquez is set to become the first Mexican heavyweight champion in combat sports history, if only he can win.
Sadly, I don't see him as the one to dethrone Brock Lesnar. Everything Cain does, Brock does better, save for maybe submissions and technical striking.
I think Brock's size advantage and athleticism will be too much for Velasquez to handle.
Velasquez will put up a fight, but I see him succumbing to strikes somewhere in the third round. Dale, I know we disagree on this fight. Share us your full opinion.
Dale:We absolutely do, my friend. It's not the whole first Mexican Heavyweight Champion" thing that has me picking Velasquez, and everybody knows about the cardio of the challenger.
I think what Cain gives up in his size he makes up for in his speed, and I don't see any detrimental change in strength. I don't see Cain taking Lesnar down right off the bat, but I do see him throwing some short punches and a few leg kicks just to slow Lesnar down.
Once he's slowed Lesnar down on the feet, then that's when he gets it to the ground and tests out Lesnar's abilities on the ground. Perhaps here is where we also see Cain's skills on the ground, seeing as how he's a purple belt in Dave Camarillo's Guerilla Jiu-Jitsu system.
In any event, I don't see a new champion coming until the third round when Lesnar is perspiring -- albeit still hanging on tight -- and tries to throw a right hook to Velasquez.
Velasquez will then hurt Brock, who will probably back up against the cage to avoid Cain's blows, but Cain will keep Lesnar trapped against the cage, probably connect with a body blow, and then rain down on Lesnar with some lefts and rights.
Brock Lesnar (Colton) vs. Cain Velasquez (Dale)
Whether you agree, disagree, or plain don't care about how we picked, you should tune into UFC 121 on pay-per-view. Not only is it one of the best fight cards of the year, it has the added drama of the main event, and the intrigue of the arrival of Jake Shields. Thank you for reading and be sure to read every time a major fight card is coming up.


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