2010-2011 Men's College Basketball Preview, Part 1: The Top 10

2010-2011 Men’s College Basketball Preview (PART ONE – The Top 10)

It is that time of year again when the leaves have begun to fall; the weather is getting cold and baseball season is wrapping up. 

Just a few weeks after dressing up and panhandling for candy we will gather with family to enjoy fellowship, food, football and Holiday Tournaments!  That’s right…it is College Basketball season and the Madness has already begun.   

A quick recap of last year: Kansas, the odds-on favorite to win last year, gets beaten in the second round, while the odds-on favorite to be runner-up (Michigan State) finds a way to overcome the loss of their starting point guard to make it to Tom Izzo’s second consecutive Final Four. 

West Virginia muscles past an outside first/inside second Kentucky team to make Coach Bob Huggins a local folk hero (yes I did call it before the season and if you need proof just look at my “I Hate Duke!” article).

And who can forget Butler falling three points shy of becoming the real-life Hoosiers.

The 2009-2010 College Basketball season can be summed up like this: the Georgetown Hoyas defeat Butler and Duke by a total of 19 points only to watch those very two teams play for the National Title game. 

They also fall short to West Virginia in the Big East Tournament Championship game after losing earlier in conference play without their leading scorer. 

How did the mighty Georgetown Hoyas fare you ask; an unforgivable first-round exit to an undersized Ohio team in what may have been the biggest upset of the tournament. 

Ultimately Duke won the schools fourth National Title using a formula that many would be wise to copy (see my “The Aftershock” article).

This season may be defined by who came back more than who left.  While the defending National Champion Duke Blue Devils lost three starters, they return two of their top three scorers and bring in arguably the best guard recruit in the nation. 

For many Blue Devil fans, the Hot Tub Time Machine has taken them back to the beginning of the 1991-1992 season, as back-to-back has become a theme.  Can anybody beat Duke or will the Blue Devil equation for success equal a repeat?

It is now time for me to reveal the 2010-2011 Pre-Season Top 25 using insider information the FOUR-letter network would be jealous of (I actually started bracketology back in 1996 and that is the truth.  The only problem is that I don't have the paper I wrote my ongoing NCAA Tournament Field Predictions on).

1. Michigan State

Any college basketball fan may feel like this pick is a bit concerning given all of the offseason turmoil surrounding East Lansing, Mich.  First reserve guard Chris Allen was kicked off the team again, only this time it was permanent. 

Then All Conference guard Kalin Lucas had to sit for five months following his Achilles tendon rupture that kept him out of last year's NCAA tournament.  Add the DUI arrest of back-up PG Korie Lucious and that makes for an offseason to forget. 

Despite all the turmoil, the Spartans return enough talent and depth to cut the nets down in April.  If healthy, Kalin Lucas is an All-American guard who is a future NBA player. 

He, the aforementioned Lucious (maybe the national sixth man of the year) and athletic senior Durrell Summers will be joined by McDonald’s All-American recruit Keith Appling to create a formidable backcourt rivaled only in Durham, N.C., Philadelphia and Washington, D.C.

Michigan State's front court will also be a force, especially if junior forward Delvin Roe can return to form. 

It doesn’t hurt that Tom Izzo’s squad has the versatile sophomore Draymond Green (finished fourth in scoring, first in rebounding, third in assists) accompanying Roe up front as well as a plethora of big bodies (six other players on the roster are 6’8 or taller) led by McDonald’s All-American recruit Adreian Payne. 

Plenty of bodies to allow the Spartans to play the physical kind of basketball fans are accustomed to.  In the end Michigan State should be in Houston and is my favorite to cut down the nets.   

2.   Duke

Ah the 2009-2010 season was a wonderful year to be a Duke fan.  Written off by everyone prior to the NCAA tournament, the Blue Devils used a “team” concept to get out of a relatively weak region before out-muscling West Virginia and squeezing by Butler in Indianapolis. 

The Blue Devils return five players from that rotation while also bringing in three freshman (led by McDonald’s All American guard Kyrie Irving) who will have a immediate impact.

The recruiting class will get an extra kick now that Seth Curry is eligible after sitting out last year (per NCAA rules following his transfer from Liberty). 

However the Blue Devils will be defined more by the players who returned than by those who left. 

Both the versatile Kyle Singler and leadership of Nolan Smith return for one more year with the hopes of becoming the second Duke team to repeat. 

Smith leads a back court that will provide Coach K with the combination of athleticism, depth, experience, and talent. 

However, much of the Blue Devils success will hinge on the progress and adaptability of the front court.  How fast can the Plumlee (Mason and Miles) brothers adjust to the roles formally played by Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas? 

Can sophomore forward Ryan Kelly return to his former McDonald’s All American form?  What role with freshman big Josh Hairston play?  In the end only two teams can stop Duke from repeating history…themselves (and Michigan State)!

3.   Pittsburgh

Let me first say that Jamie Dixon is a fantastic regular season coach. However, if his NCAA Tournament record is any indication, the guy really does not like to be out the Steel City longer than one weekend each March. 

In his seven seasons on campus, the oft-criticized coach has managed to make it out of the opening weekend on three occasions. 

This year may be the one when the coach finally breaks through big time!  Only one player is gone from a solid nine-man rotation.

Add a strong recruiting class (led by redshirt freshman big man Zanna Talib) and the Panthers should have the depth necessary to overcome their coach’s superficial tournament history. 

Beginning with junior All Conference guard Ashton Gibbs, the back court will be solid.  Gibbs will be joined by senior guards Brad Wanamaker (35.7% 3-pt shooter) and Nasir Robinson (12.3ppg). 

The wing will also get invaluable contributions from super sub Gilbert Brown (10.7ppg in only 23.7mpg) and sophomore backup point guard Travon Woodall (3.2 apg). 

The front court will be led by the experience of senior center Gary McGhee who should be an All Conference player by season's end.  Joining him will be sophomore postmen Dante Taylor and J.J. Richardson along with the aforementioned Talib. 

All in all, the guards are big and physical.  The bigs are big and physical.  Can the coach get a big Final Four trip out of his team’s physical nature?  My guess is yes.   

4. Florida

Does anyone remember when Florida was on top of the College Basketball world?  Back-to-back titles, NBA lottery picks, SEC dominance.  My how long ago 2007 seems in Gainesville, Fla. 

Repeat NCAA titles were followed by repeat NIT appearances.  Last year the Gators returned to the Big Dance only to have BYU knock them out in the first round. 

I don’t think Billy the Kid will be planning any early trips back to campus this year thanks to a loaded squad and a solid recruiting class. 

Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton return as arguably the top backcourt in the Southeastern Conference (26.6ppg, 5.9rpg, 7.6apg combined). 

The backcourt will get added depth from 6’2 freshman combo guard Scottie Wilbekin, a hometown product, and 6’6 freshman wing Casey Prather.  The Gators strength will be their front-court depth. 

Former McDonald's All American and Georgetown Hoya Vernon Macklin returns after shooting 60.7% from the field to go along with his 10.6ppg and 5.5 rpg.  Expect the latter two statistical categories to go up this year. 

Joining him will be seniors Chandler Parsons, Alex Tyus, Eric Murphy and freshman Patric Young.  Parsons and Tyus briefly flirted with the NBA before wisely deciding to return to Florida. 

Both are big and skilled and both have tons of experience.  The combination should have Billy Donovan making his fourth Final Four in April 2011. 

5. Ohio State

Evan Turner was amazing last year.  A walking triple-double who bolted Columbus for the fame of NBA lottery pick land.  Don’t feel too sorry of Coach Thad Matta, because the pantry was not left bare. 

Fielding arguably the biggest team in the nation, The Buckeyes will start five players 6’5 or taller.  William Buford (6’5 205), Jon Diebler (6’6 205) and David Lighty (6’5 220) combined for 40.0ppg, 12.9rpg and 7.6apg all while shooting better than 38% from behind the arc (Diebler shot 42.0 from downtown). 

Freshman guards Aaron Craft and Jordan Sibert are more than capable of filling the minutes they will share despite being green behind the ear to college basketball. 

Up front is where it gets really interesting.  While Dallas Lauderdale is no real trouble alone, the 6’8 255 pound senior will get much needed help from McDonald’s All-American recruit Jared Sullinger. 

His 6’9 280 pound frame stayed home in Columbus to man the post as the most celebrated low-post recruit to hit campus since Greg Oden’s came four years ago.

Junior Zisis Sarikopoulos and freshman Deshaun Thomas should provide the additional substitutes necessary to keep Ohio State on track for a possible trip to Texas in April.

6.   Kansas State

ESPN’s Midnight Madness made two trips to Manhattan during their annual season kick-off show a week ago.  Despite the glitz of New York city, the state of Kansas’ version should be a hotbed of college basketball this season. 

While Denis Clemente was a strong leader last season, Jacob Pullen was the one who put points on the scoreboard. 

The rising senior is a Chauncey Billups-type player who uses his muscle and a sweet jump shot (39.6% from 3pt range) to the tune of 19.3ppg last season. 

Sophomore reserve Rodney McGrude should slide into the starting two-guard spot after appearing in 33 games last season. 

The frontcourt will be the most formidable one any Big 12 school will face this year.  Returning are sophomore Walley Judge and All American caliber senior Curtis Kelly. 

Judge should shine this year after failing to live up to his own press clippings as a freshman while Kelly is one of the best in America at his position. 

The duo gets a huge boost from 6’10, 280 pound Junior College transfer Freddy Aspirilla.  The Colombian native, by way of Miami-Dade (Fla.) Junior College, will provide rebounding help and create space for Kelly’s muscle and Judge’s athleticism.

The bench will be bolstered by 6’7, 220 pound junior Jamar Samuels (who may even push Judge at the starting forward spot) and 7’0, 245 pound sophomore Jordan Henriquez-Roberts who saw limited action in 27 games last year despite starting five of them. 

In the end, Kansas State should be the class of not only the state but also the conference and may see the special relationship between Coach Martin and Jacob Pullen solidified by the school's first final four in 47 years!    

7. Kentucky

How do you replace four first-round NBA draft picks?  I don’t know but apparently John Calipari has a secret answer. 

Despite losing four first-round picks in April 2010 to the NBA, the guy who has two other schools on probation found a way to convince another top class to come to the Blue Grass state. 

His biggest prizes were 6’3, 183 pound Brandon Knight (originally considered a future Florida Gator) and 6’9, 230 pound Terrence Jones (originally an Oregon Duck verbal who switched his commitment following a phone call from Coach Calipari on National Signing Day). 

The “addition” of 6’10, 240 pound former professional…I mean freshman Enes Kanter gives Coach Calipari another year to mold one-and-done players into future NBA lottery picks. 

Not lost in all the freshman spotlight is the return of 6’7, 223 pound junior Darius Miller who started 32 of 38 games he played in last season as well as 6’6, 202 pound Chicago native DeAndre Liggins, who averaged 15.3 minutes in his 29 games played. 

The two should provide a solid wing combo to go along with the Terrific Three freshman.  Senior leadership will come in the form of 6’10 265 pound bruiser Josh Harrellson who saw limited action in the 22 games he played in last season. 

Substitutions will come in the form of freshmen guards Doron Lamb (6’4 183 pound shooter who played his high school ball at Oak Hill) and Stacey Poole Jr. (6’5 190 pound shooter out of Jacksonville, Fla.). 

In the end, despite the hype, the youth and inexperience playing at the college level should ultimately result in another NCAA Regional Final finish.

8. North Carolina

Many, including myself, don’t really know who that was wearing the baby blue in the finals of the Post-Season NIT tournament last year. 

It is alleged that they were from the University of North Carolina; however, NIT runner-ups is not a title widely accepted in Chapel Hill, N.C. 

Thank God freshmen become sophomores and a new season is under way because this year’s version of Roy Williams brand should be much better. 

A solid five-man rotation is joined by three McDonald's All-Americans to create a unique blend that should bode well for the secondary fast break basketball we have grown accustomed too. 

Junior Larry Drew II and freshman Kendall Marshall will battle for the keys but neither will have to burden too much responsibility.  That will be thanks in large part to the plethora of wing shooters at Coach Williams’ disposal.

Sophomores Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland along with junior Justin Watts will be joined by freshman Reggie Bullock to give either Drew II or Marshall several viable options both on the wing and at the rim. 

Up front, John Henson’s versatility will be combined with Tyler Zeller’s upside to create a lanky set of interior obstacles.  While losing Will Graves will hurt, the blow will be cushioned a bit by Alabama transfer Jusin Knox. 

The Tuscaloosa, Ala., native will bring much needed physical play to an athletic bunch that will get out and run early and often.  Where they will end up will depend on how fast Coach Roy Williams can return to his three-year Final Four plan.

9.   Villanova

Gone is the inner turmoil brought on by the alleged bickering between undrafted former All American Scottie Reynolds and current Wildcat Corey Fisher. 

This year’s team, like Reynolds' former girlfriend, belongs to Corey Fisher now.

The 6’1 200p senior guard will take over as the leader of a very deep and talented Wildcat team.  6’5 220 pound senior Corey Fisher, 6’6 185 pound sophomore Dominic Cheek and 6’1 185 pound sophomore Maalik Wayns will give Coach Jay Wright all the guards he needs to run his perimeter-oriented system. 

Who will do the dirty work down low, you ask?  Bruiser Antonio Pena, who started 31 of 33 games last season while averaging 10.5 ppg and 7.0 rpg, will be joined up front by McDonald’s All American JayVaughn Pinkston (6’7 235 pounds) and 6’10 250 pound Benin, Africa native Mouphtaou Yarou. 

Yarou showed flashes down the stretch late last year despite his modest numbers.  Reserve sophomore wing Isaiah Armwood and sophomore post Maurice Sutton will bolster a bench that should provide Coach Wright with four legitimate bodies. 

While Pittsburgh appears to be the class of the Big East, don’t be surprised if Villanova sneaks in as the top cat and maybe even crashes the party in Houston in April.

10. Texas

While Roy Barnes will have to coach a team depleted of three starters, the Longhorns are in great shape to compete for a Regional Final berth thanks in large part to the coach’s ability to recruit. 

This season is no different because several McDonalds All American reinforcements are on there way to save the day.  The 2010-2011 roster was also helped out by the return of 6’6 238 pound senior forward Gary Johnson. 

He, along with senior bigs Clint Chapman and Matt Hill give this year's Longhorn team some solid experience in the post.

The 6’7 226 pound sophomore Jordan Hamilton will join McDonald’s All American Tristan Thompson (6’9 230 pound) and former big-time recruit Shawn Williams (6’6 225 pound) in the lane to give the backcourt some athletic options up front. 

Manning the point will be senior Dogus Balbay.  The Istanbul, Turkey native will spend his last year mentoring McDonald’s All American Cory Joseph who chose to attend Texas instead of playing with his brother at Minnesota. 

Backcourt help will come in the form of sophomores J’Covan Brown and Varez Ward as well as 5’10 160 pound senior Jai Lucas. 

If Coach Barnes can get his team to play more consistently he may find himself playing well into March with the opportunity to do some damage.