College Football: A Ranking and Projections Of Florida's College Football Teams
I'm a massive fan of College Football, even though I question myself about it.
In what other sport are people who appear evil (not going to name any names because fans will get upset or offended or both, despite it being the truth) always able to succeed?
And in what other sport are questions like "who's the best" decided by opinions and people?
I'd like for there to be a playoff system, but I'm not going to write about that today.
Instead I'm going to take a trip all across the great state of Florida, home to seven Division I FBS programs, with four of those programs a part of BCS conferences (in case you forgot, the ACC, home to Florida State and Miami, and the Big East, home to South Florida, are also BCS conferences.)
This will be a fun, yet controversial ride as we go through the Sunshine State, which in the past has seen three teams in the top 5. Of course, in 2010 this seems like the distant past. Nevertheless, with the College Football regular season halfway finished, now is a good time to look at each of the seven schools.
7. FAU Owls
1 of 7
Overall Record: 1-4
Conference Record: 0-2
Currently the Owls are sitting at 1-4, including an 0-2 mark in conference play.
FAU does have a few good non-conference teams on their schedule, including Michigan State (a 30-17 loss in Detroit), University of South Florida (a 31-3 loss in Tampa), Texas (November 20th in Austin, they won't win but then again FIU did put a scare into Texas A&M earlier this season) and UAB (their lone win of the season, in Birmingham.)
For the rest of the season, the Owls face the rest of the teams in the Sun Belt Conference, where they're already 0-2. Already they're looking up at everyone except Western Kentucky, whom they visit on November 6th. The good news is that they still have games against FIU, Louisiana-Lafayette, Middle Tennessee State, and Troy. If they can run the table they'll be in a decent position. But I don't see them doing that.
Projected record: 3-9, no bowl appearances.
6. FIU Golden Panthers
2 of 7
Overall Record: 2-4
Conference Record: 2-0
Don't let the overall record fool you, this Golden Panthers team is pretty darn good.
They lead for three quarters against Texas A&M in College Station, still an accomplishment for any up and coming school like FIU. They remained competitive with Rutgers, and Pitt, losing by only five to Rutgers and keeping it within one score to Pitt before depth started to show. (Despite that, FIU Head Coach Mario Cristobal completely outcoached Dave Wannstedt. Imagine what this guy could do with a team talented on both sides of the ball with a solid recruiting base. You reading this Kirby Hocutt?)
After completing their non-conference schedule, they quickly rolled off two victories against Western Kentucky and at North Texas. Coming up they have Florida Atlantic, Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, Louisiana-Lafayette, Arkansas State, and Middle Tennessee.
I predict they don't lose another game until they get to their first bowl game, and who knows what will happen there.
Projected Record: 8-4, Sun Belt Conference Champions, and a trip to the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl.
5. South Florida Bulls
3 of 7
Overall Record: 3-3
Conference Record: 0-2
You had a feeling that this would be a rebuilding year for the Bulls.
First year under head coach Skip Holtz, along with heavy turnover.
But the Big East is terrible, so you would think they would still have a shot at at least claiming their first Big East title and BCS berth, right?
Not really.
While their defense has been stellar, allowing only 16.7 points per game, their offense has been very pedestrian.
Their schedule isn't doing them any favors either, with games coming up against Big East rivals Pitt, Rutgers, Louisville, Cincinnati and UConn, plus a trip down south to face the Hurricanes.
Right now they're a .500 team, which suits them pretty well.
Projected record: 6-6, 5th in the Big East with a berth in the Beef O Brady's Bowl.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
4. Florida Gators
4 of 7
Overall Record: 4-3
Conference Record: 2-3
I know I'm going to get a lot of flack for this. I don't care. I'm going by my research and from what I've seen while watching the games.
The 2010 Florida Gators just aren't very good.
While the defense has been pretty solid, ranking 25th in the nation allowing only 18.7 points per game, the offense has been atrocious.
How atrocious? They're currently 84th in passing, throwing for only 186.9 yards per game, and 75th in rushing, getting 142.1 per game.
Plus, look at their record.
Now here's where the Gator Nation will inform me that they play in the SEC, the toughest and greatest conference in all of football, and that they lost to Alabama, who's probably the best team in the country despite their loss to South Carolina.
Here's where I reply with look at the stats, and the fact that they lost to Mississippi State at home. Isn't Mississippi State at home a gimme for top tier SEC teams?
Now they still have a chance to redeem themselves. If they run the table then they win the SEC East and will be back in Atlanta for a shot at another BCS berth.
Its certainly possible, however, how do they keep up with South Carolina's offense that shredded an Alabama team that shredded the Gators?
Plus, sorry to say it but, the Gators aren't beating the 'Noles in Tallahassee this season.
Projected Record: 7-5, and a berth in the Outback Bowl
3. UCF Knights
5 of 7
Overall Record: 4-2
Conference Record: 2-0
Now why would I name a Conference-USA team who just lost their second string (but still important to their offense) quarterback No. 3 and better than the Gators?
That's not the question to ask though, the correct question should be, why am I ranking them at No. 3 behind the Hurricanes?
Orlando Sentinel columnist Mike Bianchi could probably answer the question better than I can, so I'll cede the question to him:
UCF hasn't played the schedule Florida has, but it's not like the Gators have actually beaten anybody good on their schedule. Teams UCF have lost to have a combined 10-3 record. Teams Florida have beaten are a combined 13-13.
So in a way, Florida's cupcake early schedule (by their own design, let me reinterate, Florida should play Miami every year without exception) has hurt them this year (also hurt by a cupcake schedule: Ohio State. If say instead of hosting Eastern Michigan, a team they beat 73-20, or Marshall, a team they beat 45-7, they instead travel to play against West Virginia and Virginia Tech, they're probably not caught as off-guard as they were against Wisconsin, which was their second road game of the season.)
But we already discussed Florida, this is about UCF (don't call it "Central Florida" its UCF.)
The Knights currently boast the eight best defense in all of college football. They've allowed an average of 13.8 points per game. No matter who you play, that's pretty impressive.
Then there's their rushing attack, currently 28th in the nation, averaging 202 yards per game.
Now Conference USA is usually very competitive, but UCF will come out with it. Thank scheduling for that, as they have their toughest remaining games (East Carolina, Southern Mississippi) at home. They also have a tough trip to Houston, however they should be considered a favorite in that game.
Then there's their bowl game, which would be the Liberty Bowl if the win Conference USA (which they will.) In the Liberty Bowl they would most likely face a team that Florida has already beat, either Kentucky or Tennessee.
They'll beat them too.
Projected Record: 10-2, Conference USA Champions, a berth in the Liberty Bowl.
2. Miami Hurricanes
6 of 7
Current Record: 4-2
Conference Record: 2-1
Ranked 25th in this weeks AP and USA Today Poll.
They're No. 2 because of the fact that they're ranked—agree with it or not.
But consider, despite the fact that many Canes fans will tell you that this is a bad season, that the only two teams they lost to are leading their respective conferences, and that the Hurricanes still control their own destiny.
But there's still reasons to worry, for instance, why would they look so lackluster against the Seminoles at home? (I say its because Sun Life Stadium is freaking haunted, and the Dolphins home record this season backs up my claim, but I digress.)
Why is it that they forced seven turnovers against Duke but only scored 28 points, followed by Randy Shannon calling it a "tough environment?" (And have the words "Duke" and "Tough Environment to play in" ever been used while talking about football prior to Shannon?)
How come Jacory Harris hasn't just stagnated in his development at QB, but possibly regressed? (Maybe because in reality, he's just not that good?)
Will they beat Virginia Tech at home? If Florida State is any indication, no. On top of that, don't expect them to beat Georgia Tech in Atlanta either.
Projected Record: 8-4, berth in the Sun Bowl.
1. Florida State Seminoles
7 of 7
Overall Record: 6-1
Conference Record: 4-0
Ranked 17th in the BCS and USA Today poll, 16th in the AP Poll.
This was a pretty easy ranking to make.
The only team Florida State lost to? Some small school in Norman that's currently ranked No. 1 in the BCS poll and No. 3 in every other poll.
Yes it was a blowout, but this FSU squad has improved every game this season and right now ranks 22nd in offense and 15th in defense in the country.
Their schedule going forward makes it likely that they will win out the rest of the way heading into an ACC Championship battle with Virginia Tech.
Yes Gator fans, that means you're losing to the Noles too.
Will they beat Virginia Tech? With the way this Noles team is progressing, I would say its a good possibility.
Expect FSU to win out and get a BCS berth via winning the ACC, followed by being considered a dark horse National Title contender next season.
Not bad for a program that I predicted would see its demise after Bowden retired (was forced out) last season.
Projected Record: 12-1 (including ACC Championship game) with a BCS berth in the Orange Bowl.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
