College Football: Notre Dame's Easiest Schedule in Years Is Not So Easy

We heard the accusations long before the 2010 season started.

“This is the weakest schedule I’ve ever seen in my lifetime,” said one program follower.

“I am ashamed that this team is playing Western Michigan and Tulsa,” said another fan.

And of course the non-fan saw the inclusion of both Navy and Army on the schedule and screamed uncontrollably, “Notre Dame plays such a weak schedule full of cupcakes!!”

Meanwhile, the experts took a different (dare I say educated?) approach.

Phil Steele had the 2010 Irish schedule pegged as the 17^th toughest in the country during the preseason, which is certainly no cakewalk.

Here at One Foot Down we discussed how this was not a very glamorous schedule by Notre Dame standards, but that it had the potential to be a very tough slate of games.

Turns out, this “weak” 2010 schedule that nearly everyone had been lamenting for the past two years is turning into quite the row of opponents.

According to NCAA strength of schedule measurements, Notre Dame currently has the 12th most difficult schedule in the nation, while the more precise Sagarin measurement has Notre Dame currently with the 20^th most difficult schedule.

The latter measurement is an interesting number because back in April I wrote a piece about how Notre Dame’s perceived weak scheduling is one of the biggest myths in all of sports and I demonstrated that from 1997 until 2009 the Irish averaged the 20^th most difficult schedule in the country.

How remarkable is it that a perceived weak schedule is hovering around the program’s average difficulty since the days of Bob Davie?

And just in case you were wondering, in that piece I was comparing Notre Dame’s schedule with Big Ten teams and the average yearly strength of schedule since 1997 looked like this for each program:

Notre Dame 20.6
Michigan 28.1
Ohio State 30.8
Iowa 32.8
Michigan State 35.4
Penn State 35.6
Purdue 38.66
Illinois 40.1
Northwestern 40.1
Minnesota 42.8
Indiana 44.8
Wisconsin 46.2

Notre Dame had one season in 2008 with the No. 50 ranked strength of schedule, yet that easy of a schedule has been nearly Wisconsin’s average for the past decade!

Although Notre Dame’s schedule could drop in the rankings, not a single schedule over the past 13 years has dropped out of the top 50 and it is likely that 2010 will stay somewhere near No. 20 in the country.

But how has this schedule become so difficult when it was always assumed to be so easy by the general public and certain sections of Notre Dame fans?

The first reason is because of Notre Dame’s independent status.

Since Notre Dame is not tied to a conference schedule, the program has become much more likely to play fewer bottom dwellers and more likely to play one or two better teams a season than the average BCS team.

To put it another way, Notre Dame’s schedules usually don’t have the large peaks and valleys that you see from other BCS schools.

For example in the Big Ten a team might play a tough Penn State team one week, and then follow that up with a game against lowly Minnesota. Then they’ll play one against a ranked Ohio State club but play BCS punching bags Indiana and Illinois in back-to-back weeks.

It’s a very up and down schedule, and if these teams are not scheduling quality out of conference games (most are not), then those schedules are not going to end up ranked very high.

In contrast, Notre Dame’s schedule is much more even keel and spread around with a lot of different opponents, thereby increasing the chances that there are more good teams and less “automatic” basement dwellers that occupy every BCS conference.

However, Notre Dame’s independent status doesn’t shield the team from playing an occasional weak schedule, but rather these occurrences have only become very rare.

The 2008 schedule is a good example.

Looking at the collection of teams before that season, that schedule didn’t look that much different than what the Irish have played in recent years. The problem was, five teams had terrible (and in some cases unforeseen) 2008 seasons:

San Diego State (2-10): Worst record in a generation for the Aztecs.

Michigan (3-9): Probably the worst season in Wolverine history.

Purdue (4-8): Worst record since 1996.

Washington (0-12): First winless season ever

Syracuse (3-9): Okay, this one was probably foreseen.

This was a very peaks and valleys type of season for the Irish, especially considering that they played six other teams that won at least eight games that year.

But nevertheless, that situation does not happen very often because it is important to understand that Notre Dame has been going out its way to schedule tough opponents and that it is practically part of the school’s DNA at this point.

That not only means scheduling top-tier teams as the program has with upcoming series’ against Oklahoma, Miami and Texas, but also refusing to play the truly awful teams in FBS and absolutely no FCS teams, both of which are becoming more and more prevalent with other teams’ schedules.

That’s really the difference between Notre Dame’s poor 2008 schedule and other schedules that are ranked that low.

Sure San Diego State isn’t very good, but Purdue is usually decent, Washington is historically decent and sometimes really good, while Michigan is usually among the nation’s best. It wasn’t even that long ago that Syracuse was a competitive team that made some noise around the country.

The 2008 Irish schedule was really just a case of bad luck from a strength of schedule standpoint and not part of a concerted effort to weaken Notre Dame’s slate of opponents.

In juxtaposition, take a look at Nebraska’s (currently ranked No. 53) and Ohio State’s (ranked No. 81) schedules so far in 2010 to see the difference.

Nebraska: Western Kentucky, Idaho, Washington, South Dakota State, Kansas State and Texas.

Ohio State: Marshall, Miami [FL], Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin.

These two programs knew damn well what kind of competition was headed their way with Western Kentucky, Idaho, South Dakota State, Marshall, Ohio and Eastern Michigan.

When you combine Notre Dame’s independent status and it’s penchant to play quality opponents and refusal to play FCS teams, it usually yields a very tough schedule, which is exactly what is happening again in 2010.

Here’s why:

Sparty Surprises

I was high on Michigan State this year, but not this high.

The consensus before the season seemed to be that if the Spartans could put it all together and not avoid a late season collapse (all too common in recent years), then maybe they would win eight or nine games and make some noise in the Big Ten.

Now, they are a lock for a ten-win season, almost a lock for an 11 win season and possibly a dark horse candidate to go undefeated and sneak into the national title game.

Not too many expected Michigan State to be this good and it has been doing wonders for Notre Dame’s strength of schedule.

How Many 8+ Win Teams?

Right now it looks like Michigan State, Stanford and Utah are locks to win at least eight games. In fact, these three teams may win at least ten games this year.

Pittsburgh is sitting at 3-3 but has a very good chance of picking up a bunch of wins in a rather lackluster Big East conference.

Although Michigan has lost two straight, they sit at 5-2 with three winnable Big Ten games coming up.

My guess is that Navy will end the season precisely at 8-4.

And with USC playing 13 games this season, I think they will at least end up with eight wins in 2010.

That is a possible total of seven teams that could win eight games this year on the Notre Dame schedule.

Are There Any Terrible Teams?

Notre Dame has or is about to play some bad teams, but the Irish schedule is void of any really terrible programs.

Some would say Purdue isn’t very good, but they are 4-2 and likely to at least win half of their games this year.

Western Michigan may very well split their remaining conference games and pick up at least five wins.

Tulsa already has four wins and is a good bet to get to .500 this year.

Even Army, usually the laughingstock of the service academies, is 4-3 with three close losses and could win six games for the first time since 1996.

Add it all up and Notre Dame may not play one team all season that finishes 2010 with eight or more losses.

In conclusion, Notre Dame is once again playing a tough schedule, even though most people didn’t think it would be all that difficult.

Just ask the other 100 teams with easier schedules if they would prefer stepping into Notre Dame’s shoes this year.

From the FanTake blog: One Foot Down

Follow on Twitter: @OneFootDown