BCS Rankings 2010: Breaking Down The Stanford Cardinal
The first BCS rankings of 2010 see the Stanford football team in prime position for its first marquee bowl game since 1999.
The Cardinal, ranked No. 12 in the opening poll, are very much still in contention for a BCS Bowl. With just one loss to the No. 2 Oregon Ducks, and several victories in impressive fashion, this team has very few doubters remaining on the national stage.
While Jim Harbaugh may barely have a .500 record at Stanford and only one postseason appearance, this is his year to prove what he's made of. With an all-world quarterback in Andrew Luck and as talented a team as Stanford has ever had, you better believe this squad will be a factor the rest of the way.
How They Got to This Point
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Stanford started the season on the bubble of the national rankings and has worked its way up in impressive fashion. Replacing Toby Gerhart was the big preseason unknown for the Cardinal, but it has proven to be a relative non-issue due to Andrew Luck's amazing development.
After beating Sacramento State handily, the Cardinal walloped UCLA, Wake Forest and Notre Dame to skyrocket into the national top 10. Then, against Oregon, Stanford briefly reached its high point. The Cardinal jumped out to a 21-3 lead and looked ready to run away with a huge win. The Ducks changed that plan, going on to win and put a damper on Stanford's fast start.
A week later USC came to the Farm, and Harbaugh's boys bounced back for a huge (albeit uncomfortably close) victory to head into their midseason bye week.
The one thing the Cardinal lack is a signature win, but 5-1 against decent competition is nothing to scoff at.
Best Win
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Beating Notre Dame brought the national attention, but the Irish are nothing to write home about.
Beating USC was exciting, but Stanford was favored by 10 and needed a last-second field goal to avoid embarrassment.
Wake Forest and Sac State were fantastic performances and blowouts, but those foes were severely over-matched and can't be considered for best win.
That leaves UCLA, which may seem a surprising choice but is absolutely merited. Stanford romped 35-0 over an unknown quantity in the Bruins, earning its first conference shutout in decades (on the road no less!) and getting off to a hot start in the Pac-10. Then UCLA went and dominated Texas, and the win got a lot more impressive.
BCS Ranking
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Stanford earned a BCS average of .5374, good for a No. 12 ranking in the opening poll. The Card are in a virtual deadlock with No. 13 Wisconsin (.5335) and sit close behind undefeated No. 11 Missouri (.5491).
Only two one-loss teams rank higher (No. 8 Alabama and No. 10 Ohio State), and just one conference foe (No. 2 Oregon) bests Stanford.
The Cardinal ranked Nos. 13 and 14 in the Harris Poll and Coaches' Poll, respectively, and averaged 10th in the computers to earn its preliminary No. 12 BCS composite ranking.
Too High or Too Low?
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I tend to side with the computers, which aren't biased by style, hype or the East Coast, which would make Stanford slightly underrated (the computers have Stanford 3-4 spots higher than the pollsters). That said, this ranking is about right.
The Cardinal haven't had any wins over ranked teams, and have taken a decisive (if not dominating) loss to a great team. With games against 18th-ranked Arizona and Oregon State remaining, there's still time for Stanford to prove itself.
Remaining Schedule
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Here's what it looks like the rest of the way:
Oct. 23 vs. Washington State
Oct. 30 at Washington
Nov. 6 vs. No. 18 Arizona
Nov. 13 at Arizona State
Nov. 20 at Cal
Nov. 27 vs. Oregon State
Potential Pitfall
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Oregon State gives Stanford fits and Arizona is a very good team, but neither are the biggest pitfall to the Cardinal. That honor belongs to Cal.
For whatever reason, the Big Game always seems to turn the tables on the favored team. Last season's letdown lives on in Cardinal minds, as does the string of miserable results over the last decade. No matter what the teams' records are, this is a huge task for Stanford and could easily provide a devastating loss.
Then again, if Stanford is as good as it looks, the Axe should be coming back to Palo Alto. It's just a matter of taking care of business.
Intangibles
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It's easy to quantify what Andrew Luck brings to the table: arm strength, decision making, leadership and more. It's less easy to quantify what Harbaugh's done to the program.
Harbaugh's influence is Stanford's biggest strength — its "never quit" attitude, punishing style of play and outrageous confidence are all products of Harbaugh's coaching. Sure, he's a fine Xs and Os coach, but it's the intangibles of attitude that have really gotten the Cardinal to this point.
Analysis
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You can say what you want about Boise and TCU's ranking, or about how far 'Bama and OSU should have dropped, but there's relatively little controversy about the Cardinal's ranking.
The computers and pollsters are mostly in agreement, ranking Stanford among the best one-loss teams in the country, and that's how it should be. As the season wears on the Cardinal need only to keep winning and they'll see their ranking move on up. The Top 5 is well within reach.
Bowl Projection
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Where will the Cardinal end up? Well, things are looking good on the Farm for a BCS bid. Every game left is winnable, and the toughest opponents are at home. If Stanford takes care of business to finish 11-1, there's almost no question the Cardinal will be playing in January.
Will it be the Rose Bowl as the Pac-10's No. 2? Will it be the Orange Bowl as an at-large? Could the Cardinal actually jump Oregon for the Pac-10 title? Or will Luck and co. slip up and end up in a lesser bowl? It's obviously impossible to know for sure, but at this stage it's looking like a BCS at-large.
Prediction: The Orange Bowl, January 3rd.
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