New Orleans Saints Vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Game Preview

The 3-2 New Orleans Saints, coming off a 30-20 loss in Arizona against the Cardinals, will take on the 3-1 Buccaneers, who are coming off of a 24-21 win over the Cincinnati Bengals, this Sunday at Tampa Bay.  The Saints have lost the lead in the NFC South. The Saints have already lost to the Falcons once and cannot afford to lose the Bucs this Sunday.

Tampa Bay has seemingly risen from the ashes from a bad season in 2009 and is playing some of the best football of any team in the NFL.  Granted, their schedule hasn’t been that difficult, but this team is winning and poses some problems for the Saints.

So who will win this game?  Can the Saints overcome the Bucs improved offense and defense and get back into the hunt for the division lead?

Let’s find out in this in-depth preview of the Saints and Buccaneers matchup this Sunday.

When the Saints Have the Ball

Let’s face it: The Saints offense hasn’t been playing as well as it did in 2009.  As we saw in their game against the Cardinals, the Saints had problems passing the ball and running the ball as well as being able to hold onto it.

So far this season, the Saints have an average of 271 yards of passing per game.  They have a total of nine passing touchdowns so far this season averaging almost two per game.  That’s not as good as they were doing last year at this time.

So what is wrong with the Saints passing offense?  For one, they don’t have the rushing offense to help take some of the pressure off of their passing game.  Their rushing game has struggled thus far, even before the loss of running back Pierre Thomas.

The Buccaneers are allowing opponents an average of 197 yards per game which is pretty good by NFL standards.  This will make it hard for the Saints to try to pass the ball in this game, but they have to try especially now that Thomas is out for another game and their substitutes aren’t working out.

Speaking of the running game, the Saints are averaging a lowly 75 yards per game and this is definitely one of the reasons why the Saints are struggling like they have been.  You have to have balance on offense, and the Saints don’t have that.  And not having this balance allows the defense to key in on one phase of your game and shut it down.  The Saints need to find their running game here.

On the flip side, Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing teams to rush for an average of 143 yards per game so if the Saints want to establish the run (and they have to), they may not have too difficult a time of doing it.  They have to get something going on the ground.

If Brees can get some protection and get the ball down the field to his receivers consistently in the face of what isn’t too tough of a pass rush (Tampa Bay only has four sacks on the season so they aren’t doing so well in getting to the passer), he should have time to throw.  If he can get some long pass completions down the field then this team shouldn’t be able to win this game.

One final thing on offense that the Saints can do to assure that they will win is hold onto the ball.  In their last game (against Arizona), the Saints turned the ball over at critical times, and two of these turnovers led directly to touchdowns.  The Saints need to hold onto the football in this one or they could be facing another loss.

When the Buccaneers Have the Ball

Tampa Bay has been winning games in the air for the most part and their quarterback, second-year man Josh Freeman, has been having a pretty decent season so far.  He is averaging 206 yards per game and has thrown for five touchdowns with three interceptions.  Modest numbers, yes, but effective.

Teams have been able to get pass pressure on Freeman so far this season (opponents have registered a total of 10 sacks on Freeman) so there is some opportunity here.  The Saints will bring their 10 sacks into this game and try to put some pressure on Freeman in hopes that they can keep the offense from making many big plays down the field and give their own offense a chance to get the ball and score.

The defensive line of the Saints hasn’t been doing that bad this year, and hopefully they can take advantage of the Bucs problems on the offensive line and get plenty of pressure on the quarterback.  They should be able to stop the Buccaneers rushing attack as well (they are averaging around 103 yards per game while the Saints are allowing an average of 118 yards per game). 

Things should be just about even then but the Saints cannot afford to let the Bucs hold onto the ball for too long.  They have to hold Tampa Bay to three-and-out and get the ball back as quickly as possible.

The Saints defense boasts some of the better cornerbacks in the NFL, and they will have their work cut out for them in this game.  The Bucs top two pass catchers, wide receiver Mike Williams and tight end Kellen Winslow, have been playing pretty well lately so the Saints will have to work to shut them down.

Look for linebacker Jonathan Vilma to make some plays and be a force on the field.  Hopefully, he and the rest of the linebackers will be able to get some added pressure on the quarterback and stop the run.

Special Teams

The Saints special teams have struggled this season, especially at kicking field goals so hopefully New Orleans will be over this and have those problems settled.  Coverage units also need a little bit of work and need to be much better.

The Bucs have a decent kicker in Connor Barth, but he hasn’t had that many opportunities so far this season.  Their kick return units aren’t the best, but their coverage units are pretty decent.  It doesn’t look like special teams are going to be too much of a factor in this game, but you never know what might happen.

Analysis

The Saints really want to win this game to keep pace with both the Buccaneers and the Falcons for the lead in the NFC South, and winning this game will be very important for trying to do that.  

The Saints have started this season off sluggish and not as well put together on offense as many thought that they would after their Super Bowl victory last season.  Not much changed in New Orleans in the offseason so it appeared as if it would be another season with a high flying offense and a lot of points.

But that hasn’t happened yet.  They have been stagnant on offense for the most part and struggled at times to score.  Why is this happening?

The Saints did have a good running game last year and with Thomas out for the better part of the last three games (and he won’t be playing in this one), it’s hard for the Saints to have that balance on offense.  Without the running game, they will struggle.

The Bucs have been doing a good job of causing turnovers this season as the Saints are good at giving the ball away so this game may come down to whoever wins the turnover battle.  The Saints have to avoid those mistakes that have killed them in their two losses this season.

Prediction

It is difficult to go against the Saints in this game because it’s going to come down to the team that wants it more, and the Saints will definitely want this game more than the Buccaneers will.  New Orleans has to control the turnovers and try to establish the running game with the players that they have on the roster (with Thomas out).  If they can do that and limit the mistakes, they should win this game.

New Orleans 24 Tampa Bay 17