College Football: Steele Ranking System Has Oregon No. 1 After Win Over Stanford

Just what we need—another blowhard who thinks he can give us accurate rankings using some sort of crude rationale and probably a lot of bias, just to make himself feel cool.

I know that’s what I’d say if I saw this. I’m not even sure I could convince you otherwise.

However, I’ll do my best. 

First, the easy one: The whole point of me starting a ranking system 15 years ago was to remove any and all bias (that’s what they all say). The only teams I might have any sort of bias towards are the small Boise States of the world (no, I don’t have them No. 1) or my favorite team, Fresno State (not ranked). 

I’ve tried to come up with the rationale that every sports announcer I’ve ever heard brings up: Conference rankings (check), Road vs. Away (check), and who did you play (double-check).

As I said before, I’ve been doing this privately for over 15 years, and every year there have been slight changes to it. Usually by the end of the season, I see more improvements I can make, and I do that for the following season. By no stretch is it perfect, but I think it’s getting there.

So what are the specifics? It starts by generating a ranking for each conference. This is done by generating a win-loss record for each conference against the other conferences. For the purpose of this system, I consider each division a conference (for example, the SEC West is a conference—so are the independents).

This is modified by determining who those wins are against. For example, the Big Ten loses some of its power by scheduling lots of MAC teams. I take the total and divide it by how many teams are in the conference to normalize the value, and then take a ranking of that value.

As of Oct. 5, 2010, the conference rankings are as follows:

17. Sun Belt

16. MAC East

15. C-USA East

14. Big East

13. MAC West

12. ACC Atlantic

11. WAC

10. C-USA West

9. SEC East

8. ACC Coastal

7. Independents

6. MWC

5. Big Ten

4. Pac-10

3. Big 12 North

2. Big 12 South

1. SEC West

After determining the conference rankings, I generate values that a team would receive for playing another team. Values are generated for a Home Win, a Home Loss, a Road Win, and a Road Loss.

Each of the values is derived from the Home Win, which is formed by taking the team's place in the conference (first, second, third, etc.), inverting it so more points are awarded for beating the team, and multiplying it by the inversed conference ranking. This is then normalized again for the number of teams in the conference.

For example, currently, the first place team in the first place conference is Alabama. If Arkansas would have beaten Alabama in Week 3, they would have earned 102 points. This is because Alabama was in first place (inversed = seven multiplied by inversed conference ranking = 17, 7 * 17 = 102). 

Losses are similar, though there is no inverting. Thus Arkansas’ loss only caused them to lose two points (Place in Conference = 1, Conference Rank = 1, 1 * 1 = 1). I added an additional modifier of two if you lost at home, so 1 * 2 = 2. A Road Win is the same as a home win, except the value is multiplied by two, and a Road Loss takes the Home Loss and divides it by two. 

Did you follow all of that? If not, don’t worry about it; just know that it is under constant improvement, and again, this where I think they will be if they continue to do what they did last year. I’ll go in reverse order, like a Top 10 list:

25. Northwestern (5-0): Won AT Minnesota; Best Win = @Vanderbilt; Worst Loss = N/A

24. Oklahoma State (4-0): Won vs. Texas A&M; Best Win = Texas A&M; Worst Loss = N/A

23. UCLA (3-2): Won vs. Washington State; Best Win = @Texas; Worst Loss = Stanford

22. Kansas State (4-0): BYE; Best Win = UCLA; Worst Loss = N/A

21. Florida State (4-1): Won AT Virginia; Best Win = @Virginia; Worst Loss = @Oklahoma

20. North Carolina State (4-1): Lost vs. Virginia Tech; Best Win = @Georgia Tech; Worst Loss = Virginia Tech

19. USC (4-1): Lost vs. Washington; Best Win = @Hawaii; Worst Loss = Washington

18. Hawaii (3-2): Won vs. Louisiana Tech; Best Win = @Army; Worst Loss = USC

17. Ohio State (5-0): Won AT Illinois; Best Win = Miami (FL); Worst Loss = N/A

16. Florida (4-1): Lost AT Alabama; Best Win = @Tennessee; Worst Loss = @Alabama

15. Wisconsin (4-1): Lost AT Michigan State; Best Win = @UNLV; Worst Loss = @Michigan State

14. Washington (2-2): Won AT USC; Best Win = @USC; Worst Loss = @BYU

13. Michigan (5-0): Won AT Indiana; Best Win = @Indiana; Worst Loss = N/A

12. Auburn (5-0): Won vs. Louisiana-Monroe; Best Win = @Mississippi State; Worst Loss = N/A

11. Arizona (4-0): BYE; Best Win = @Toledo; Worst Loss = N/A

10. Temple (4-1): Won AT Army; Best Win = @Army; Worst Loss = @Penn State

9. Stanford (4-1): Lost AT Oregon; Best Win = @UCLA; Worst Loss = @Oregon

8. Air Force (4-1): Won vs. Navy; Best Win = @Wyoming; Worst Loss = @Oklahoma

7. Oklahoma (5-0): Won Neutral Site vs. Texas; Best Win = Air Force; Worst Loss = N/A

6. LSU (5-0): Won vs. Tennessee; Best Win = @North Carolina; Worst Loss = N/A

5. TCU (5-0): Won AT Colorado State; Best Win = Baylor; Worst Loss = N/A

4. Nevada (5-0): Won AT UNLV; Best Win = @BYU; Worst Loss = N/A

3. Boise State (5-0): Won AT New Mexico State; Best Win = @Virginia Tech; Worst Loss = N/A

2. Alabama (5-0): Won vs. Florida; Best Win = @Arkansas; Worst Loss = N/A

1. Oregon (5-0): Won vs. Stanford; Best Win = @Arizona State; Worst Loss = N/A

After this week’s round of games, I’ll add some more details such as what they were ranked last week, how far they are behind the team ahead of them, and how many points they got for defeating (or losing) to the team they played against. I'll also show my version of what I'd like the college playoff system to resemble, and we can all bask in the glory of that (probably) never to be fulfilled dream.

UPDATE:  All of you who are saying this is ridiculous, I agree, it is, which is why I looked at it a little closer.  There was a MAJOR bug in the formula, which, in particular, rated certain lousy teams too highly (hello there Hawaii).  I have since fixed it, and certain teams (Hawaii and Temple most notably) have dropped considerably.  Again, I'll have all the details next week.