Iowa vs. Michigan: What the Hawkeyes Must Do When Michigan Has the Ball
We know Iowa has a great defense. We also know Michigan has a great offense. Furthermore, contrary to what a number of people have said, Denard Robinson is not the only quality player on the Michigan offense.
However, let's be honest. If you stop Robinson, you stop Michigan. No matter who else is on the Wolverine offense, at this point in time, it is that simple.
That said, Robinson is one of those players that can not truly be "stopped." He is going to get his yards one way or the other. Nevertheless, he can be contained. His effect can be minimized. He is, after all, human.
The way to do that, quite simply, is for the defense to finish their tackles; not to let a five-yard draw go for a 60-yard touchdown, because broken tackles and yards-after-contact are where Robinson truly makes his hay.
If the Iowa defense can take down Robinson on the first touch, and if the Hawks can limit the Wolverines to field goal attempts when UM gets inside the 30—and rest assured, Michigan will get inside Iowa's 30—then odds are very good that Iowa will leave Ann Arbor with a victory.
Denard Robinson vs Adrian Clayborn, Broderick Binns and Christian Ballard
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Unlike OSU's Terrelle Pryor, who gets a lot of his rushing yards on busted plays, Michigan designs its plays around Denard Robinson's rushing ability. More often than not, he is meant to carry the ball.
Furthermore, as Michigan usually moves the pocket, and rarely if ever lets Robinson sit back there when he throws, a typical straight-ahead rush will not be applicable.
However, when Michigan runs the read option, Robinson will usually be looking at the ends, and base his read on what they do.
It will be imperative that Clayborn, Ballard, and Binns funnel everything inside where hopefully Iowa's interior line should have sealed off any gaps.
This, in turn, will force the runner in question to pop outside where Iowa's linebackers should be waiting.
The Killer Instinct vs. Iowa
2 of 6When defensive players get a quarterback in their crosshairs, their immediate instinct is to deliver a kill shot.
Iowa's defensive players absolutely have to put that attitude aside when playing against Denard Robinson.
Robinson is not like a typical quarterback. In fact, he is more like a running back than a quarterback. He knows how to take hits, and more importantly, he knows how to avoid them.
In effect, one of the keys to stopping Robinson and winning the game will be fundamentally sound tackling; not highlight reel shots that make the home crowd grimace.
If Robinson gets five yards a carry, it won't kill the Hawks. If he breaks a tackle or two, and goes for big gains, then the Hawks will be in trouble.
In short, he's not Shonn Greene. He's not Earl Campbell. He's not going to bounce off tackles. MSU proved that a sound tackling team can bring him down. However, he cannot be allowed to get out of tackles and get to the second level.
That is the top priority for the Hawkeye defense, and it starts with not trying to take his head off.
Michigan's Red Zone Offense vs. Iowa's Bend-Don't-Break Defense
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If Iowa fans thought they had place kicking problems, they haven't watched Michigan play.
The Wolverines are currently at the bottom of the Big Ten in field goal percentage, having made exactly two-of-seven attempts.
Due to this, when in the red zone the Wolverines place top priority on putting the ball in the end zone. They don't want to get into a situation involving a field goal kicking duel.
Michigan State had a superb defensive gameplan last week. They basically played a bend-don't-break defense until UM got into scoring position. At that point, they stiffened up and forced Robinson to throw. The end result of that included two interceptions and a 60 percent red zone conversion percentage.
Needless to say, MSU's gameplan sounds a lot like what Iowa does every single week.
Ultimately, I do expect Michigan to have success moving the ball between the 20's. However, it will be inside the 20 where Iowa will have to do exactly what the Spartans did: Force Robinson to throw, and force him to make mistakes.
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Denard Robinson vs. Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood
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One of the questions will be who will spy Robinson? For that matter, the question is will Iowa choose to spy Robinson?
After all, as Kirk Ferentz said in his weekly press conference, "No one guy is going to defend him. It’s like any good offensive team, whether you’re playing a really proficient passing team or an option team or whatever, but if you’re playing a team that’s good offensively, you’d better rely on the whole team."
Again, Robinson is not a scrambler. Michigan's offense is designed to have him run the ball. In effect, he's usually not going to make anything out of a busted passing play.
Therefore, Iowa might choose to play their usual cover two football and depend on the defensive line to take out blockers while the linebackers make tackles.
However, if Iowa chooses to spy Robinson, I suspect it would be Tyler Sash's job, and with all due respect to Sash, Robinson is much faster than Iowa's strong safety.
Furthermore, I've mentioned it multiple times already, but it is worth repeating: If Iowa is to win this game, they cannot let Michigan get long gains. Rodriguez is not looking to drive the field; he is looking for the big gainers.
UM currently leads the Big Ten in plays over 20 yards.
Needless to say, the safeties are the last line of defense. Sash and Greenwood will be depended upon to stay in position and make tackles should Robinson get to the second level.
The Bye Week vs. Iowa
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Yes, Iowa has had an extra week to prepare for the Wolverines, so that all but guarantees the win, right?
Not quite. Kirk Ferentz's record after a bye week is a rather ugly 2-4. Furthermore, those were not just losses in bad years. Iowa lost following a bye week in 2003 and 2008, which have to be considered good Hawkeye squads in anybody's book.
Moreover, Michigan just played Michigan State. By itself, that may not mean anything, but consider that MSU runs a similar offense to Iowa's. In effect, the Michigan defense, for all its shortcomings, will have been preparing for the same style of offense two weeks in a row.
That will mean quite a lot in terms of game preperation and X's and O's. Look at it comparatively to the way the Iowa D prepares for, and tends to do well against, Wisconsin's O. Part of the reason for that is because Wisconsin runs a similar offense to Iowa. Therefore, the Iowa defense practiced against that type of offense throughout fall camp.
Schilling. Molk and Omameh vs. Ballard, Klug and Daniels
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By now, most people have realized that Rich Rodriguez's Michigan does not run a typical Big Ten offense. The quarterback is fast, they put a lot of receivers on the field, etc.
What is not as well-known is that Michigan's offensive line is also not your typical Big Ten offensive line. They are not a physical bunch. They are not going to blow anybody off the line.
Michigan's line, like their quarterback, is fast and athletic; considerably more so than most O-lines. Their goal is to be faster than their opposition, not tougher or stronger.
For example, watch this video of every Michigan offensive snap against Indiana. Do you notice any plays where the line really blows Indiana's rather second-rate defensive line away? Probably not, because that is not their goal.
Michigan's goal is to create speed mismatches, and to open up tiny seems that their extremely fast playmakers can fit through. They burst through those seems, shed a tackle, and then it's off to the races.
In the end, the key for Iowa's interior line, like the key for Iowa's entire defense, will be to play fundamentally sound assignment football. They have to maintain their gaps, and not give Robinson or Shaw or whoever has the ball, any room to run.
I realize I will take flack for the following comment, but I honestly believe if Iowa plays their game, this Michigan team has a very small chance of beating them (unless, of course, during the last week, Denard Robinson has become a much better passer).
Nonetheless, to paraphrase Lou Reed, between strategy and execution lies a lifetime.
Also, while I am normally an adherent of Ferentz's conservatism, I don't like it against Michigan. Iowa will need to put up points in this game.
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