NFL Week 4 Picks: Tom Brady Enters His House Of Horrors and Rejuvenated Bears.

Last week I forgot that sometimes when a desperate team plays a non-desperate team, always count on the desperate team to pull it off.

Last week's desperate vs. non-desperate was Cowboys-Texans, yet never once considered that. I forgot that the NFL isn't like college football, state-pride isn't all too important, yet I overestimated it thinking in the College Football mentality, like I was talking about Texas vs. Texas A&M when you could throw out the records, even stating as such:

A win for the Cowboys and they pretty much save their season by winning on the road against an excellent team and proof that they still rule the state of Texas.

Yet I forgot about the fact that while the Cowboys reaked of desperation and didn't want to start 0-3, with the Texans they were content to not show as much and seemed ok with going 2-1, something that makes me think a little. From a competitive stand-point they should want to win the game (and not be as sloppy) so that they won't give Indianapolis an opening to get closer (which they did by beating a Broncos team that didn't play as well as they have at home in the past early of the season.)

Of course we're headed into the closest thing the NFL has to its "dog days" like what baseball has in July and August and the NBA and NHL have from mid-February until late-March. Teams will have bye weeks and some games between teams that are contending and teams that are falling out of the race or aren't considered in it will be closer than you think.

Becuase of this Houston probably looked at their upcoming schedule, which features The Raiders in Oakland this week, followed by the Giants and Kansas City at home then a bye. I even stated this:

with their upcoming schedule it would not come as a surprise to me if they're 6-0 and the last undefeated team left in the National Football League going into their Week Eight Monday Night showdown with Indianapolis. (I mean look at their upcoming schedule: at Oakland, followed by home games against the Giants and the Chiefs, then a bye week. To be 6-0 shouldn't just be expected, but anything less would be a disappointment at this point.

Why I forgot this? I don't know. The Cowboys needed the game more, that should have swayed me into picking them.

Then there are the teams that have surprised everyone, my big surprise being the Chicago Bears, 3-0 after I predicted them to finish 3-13.

Now I look at them as a potential 10-6 team that will make it into the playoffs, and possibly be 7-2 going into a game against a Miami Dolphins team with a much tougher schedule that could find themselves anywhere between 7-2 and 5-4.

This week they play the underachieving New York Giants. Last week I said this about them:

The Giants are coming off a humongous disaster against the Colts. Antrel Rolle, who only signed with the Giants about 15 minutes ago, is already criticizing Coach Coughlin, same old crap in New York, Coughlin takes his shots, the question comes up over if he's on the hot seat, a question that will continue to come up all season and might be magnified even more with Bill Parcells stepping down with the Dolphins earlier this year (over/under on Parcells back to the Giants speculation: week 10.) Except this is every Giants season it seems, I honestly don't want to hear another word about Coughlin, a guy who only won a Super Bowl three years ago with almost the same team and was probably a Plaxico Burress self-inflicted gunshot wound away from repeating two years ago, being on the hot seat. I say this is his last year, but only of his own volition, only because HE will say "forget this."

Then my own dumb self stated this:

As for this week? I'm going with the venue pick. Giants 17 Titans 10.

Then at home the Giants lay a massive egg at New Meadowlands Stadium, which to me is a bigger disaster than the Colts game the week before.

Are the Bears that good? Are the Giants that bad? The issue is somewhere in between as I'll cover later.

Now onto the picks (HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Detroit (+14.5) over GREEN BAY

Last week The Lions failed to cover. The Lions giving 11.5 points on the road was still absurd, as was this one. I see Green Bay playing not to lose and more to tune up after their undisciplined loss against the Bears.

Packers 34 Lions 28.

TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Denver

The Titans defense helped make the Giants offense look atrocious last week. Denver's isn't any better.

Titans 27 Broncos 10.

Cincinatti (-3) over CLEVELAND

I'm not sold on the Bengals, and neither is Vegas. After last week's game against Baltimore, the Browns look like they can steal this one. This will be the carrot on the stick they won't get though.

Bengals 27 Browns 20.

PITTSBURGH (-1.5) over Baltimore

Expect this game, Pittsburgh at home with their D, to be a defensive struggle, but more dominating than would would think.

Steelers 22 Ravens 6

BUFFALO (+5.5) over New York Jets

After a big prime time win, aren't the Jets always prone to that Buffalo let down? It just feels like it with the game being in Buffalo.

Bills 17 Jets 16.

San Francisco (+7) over Atlanta

See? Desperate team vs. non-desperate team. Atlanta coming off an upset, San Francisco needing a win to save their season (yes even in the putrid NFC West, 0-4 isn't a good way to get into the playoffs.

But it won't be enough for the outright victory for the 49ers.

Falcons 24 49ers 21.

ST. LOUIS (+1) over Seattle

Seattle on the road scares me, St. Louis will make it 2-2.

Rams 28 Seahawks 17.

JACKSONVILLE (+8) over Indianapolis.

Three straight sell outs in Jacksonville? Well lets break this down:

Game 1: vs. the Broncos and Tim Tebow

Game 2: vs. the Eagles, who had a decent sized crowd go to the Super Bowl held in the same town and has had a few Eagles fans in the area.

Game 3: vs. Peyton and the Colts, who any football fan has to put on their "must see in person list."

They'll keep it close, they always do against Indy.

Colts 26 Jags 22

Houston (-3) over OAKLAND

No reason they should lose to the Raiders. None.

Houston 35 Oakland 10.

SAN DIEGO (-8) over Arizona

The Chargers are always a good bet at home against a bad team that should have lost to Oakland.

Chargers 27 Cardinals 10

Washington (+6) over PHILADELPHIA

Six points? Philly's favored by six? Do they really think that McNabb isn't going to go in guns blazing in Philly? Maybe that's why the Skins didn't play as well as they could have in St. Louis.

Redskins 22 Eagles 16

NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS (-3.5) over Chicago

Desperate vs. Non-Desperate. Desperate team at home. Is there anything else to say?

Giants 16 Bears 13

LOCK OF THE WEEK:

NEW ORLEANS (-14.5) over Carolina

For the first time we get to see how this Saints team bounces back from a shocking loss. I say they right the ship against the Panthers.

Saints 35 Panthers 10.

MIAMI DOLPHINS GAME OF THE WEEK

MIAMI (+1) over New England

Tom Brady enters his house of horrors, a place he's only won at twice in seven visits (going 3-4).

I didn't know what team the 2010 Patriots would remind me of but I did pick them to finish with identical records with the Dolphins and a meeting in the AFC East.

Looks like it will be worse, for this Patriots team reminds me of the Shula-Marino teams from 1988-1995.

The team has their future hall of fame coach, future hall of fame QB, and two great receivers. Because of that they'll always be a threat, and you're not surprised when they win the division or make a playoff run based on that alone.

However it is just them alone, meaning for the most part they're going to be average. (The Dolphins in Shula's final eight years: 73-55, but 3-3 in the playoffs and only 3 post-season appearances.)

The Patriots are just like that right now, and one thing I know: those Dolphins were a sure bet to lose on the road against the Bills and Jets. (And a sure bet to lose against the Bills period, oh how the mighty have fallen.)

So here the Patriots have a Monday Night road game against the Dolphins, a team that has a better defense and better running game than the Pats.

This means shootout, which could go either way, but the advantage is on the Dolphins because A. their hunger and how close they kept it against the Jets (they should have beaten them) and the fact that they're very unlikely to make the same mistakes a second time (they tend not to) and B. Once again, the Phins have a pass rush that can rattle Tom Brady.

If he thought Taylor and Thomas were bad, imagine him against Wake and Dansby. Then there's the Pats road woes: last year they went 1-6 on the road (not counting their road game moved to London against the Bucs.)

The Pats road struggles will continue, as will Marshall's play from Sunday Night. The one thing that shouldn't? The Wildcat. But you already knew that.

Dolphins 32 Patriots 21.

BYE WEEK: Minnesota, Dallas, Kansas City, Tampa Bay

Last Week (vs. Spread): 9-7 (8-8)

Overall (vs. Spread) 26-22 (23-24-1)

Thanks for reading, be sure to look out for "Dolfan Diaries: Pats vs. Dolphins" Tuesday Morning. Next article Monday.

Follow Thomas on twitter, @thomasgalicia.