Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints: Seven Questions and Predictions
Atlanta heads into their first NFC South matchup against the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints in the Superdome on Sunday. As everyone knows this is a rivalry that has gone on for almost 30 years, and the past few contests have been close, with the score of the past four games being 110-109 in favor of the Saints. This is a contest between the two teams that everyone has predicted will represent the division in the postseason, although the order of finish has been disputed.
The Saints will be returning from a Monday night battle out west, while the Falcons cruised to an easy victory at home. That said, there are a lot of questions to be answered in their first encounter in 2010. Let's dive into those questions and what we predict what will happen.
Also, don't forget that if you want to call and discuss anything about the Falcons/Saints matchup or anything else related to Week 3 in the NFL, you can do so on our radio program "The Dungeon" at (347) 857-4627 from 7-8pm on Sunday Night, only at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/dungeonsociety.
1) How Will the Injury To Reggie Bush Affect the Saints Offense?
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Saints RB Reggie Bush will be out up to six weeks following a broken leg suffered last Monday night at San Francisco. I know that a lot of people think Bush is nothing more than a glorified third down option, but he's much more than that.
Bush is dangerous in the open field, and one of the reasons the Saints' offense was so dominant was due to the fact that QB Drew Brees' could throw the ball to him in the flat and watch him go. He is also able to take any punt return for a score with his amazing speed. Not having to game-plan around Bush will make life easier for Falcons Defensive Coordinator Brian VanGorder.
Although the Saints did sign Ladell Betts earlier this week, it remains to be seen how much playing time he will receive. Pierre Thomas has gotten the ball more on short passes as well as being able to get the tough yards on third down. Atlanta can't relax much with Thomas in the backfield, as he has caught 11 passes so far this season.
I predict that not having Bush in the backfield will hurt the Saints, especially on third down.
2) Can Atlanta's Two-Back Attack Remain Successful?
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Even after RB Michael Turner went down after nine carries for 75 yards, backup Jason Snelling did such a tremendous job that he was named NFC Offensive Player of the week, amassing over 180 yards of total offense with three TDs. For a team built to run, that had to be music to the ears of Offensive Coordinator Mike Mularkey, who wants to use the ground game as much as possible.
However, the Saints are not the only team dealing with injured running backs, as Atlanta had to place Jerious Norwood on the IR after Sunday's game. This means that we should see a steady diet of Turner and Snelling getting the lion's share of the carries. Keep in mind that the Saints' defense has improved, and if Atlanta wants to pull off an upset, these two backs will have to hit the open holes and push into the Saints secondary.
I predict that Turner will have a huge day of over 100 yards rushing, and that Snelling will be brought in on jumbo packages and shotgun formations.
3) Will Michael Jenkins Play?
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WR Michael Jenkins has missed the first two games of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, and has been limited in practice this week. As of this time he is not expected to play, and that could hurt Atlanta's chances against the Saints.
For all of the criticism that Jenkins gets for not producing like fellow first-round pick Roddy White, he does provide QB Matt Ryan an outlet on third downs and near the end zone due to his tremendous height. Against a Saints team that likes to play aggressive defense, having Jenkins there to take the pressure of White could be an advantage for Atlanta.
As stated, he isn't expected to play, but if he does, look for Atlanta to use him in a possession-type receiver role on third downs.
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4) Who Will Win the Primary Matchup: Dunta Robinson vs. Marques Colston?
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Dunta Robinson was brought in for matches such as this. He will most likely get the assignment against Saints WR Marques Colston. Although the Saints have a bevy of receivers (Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson) at their disposal, Colston is Brees' favorite target, averaging 12 yards a catch.
One of the reasons the Saints were able to defeat the Falcons the past two years was due to the fact that Atlanta didn't have that shutdown corner that could remove one side of the field. Robinson can more than hold his own, and will make it easier for Coach Mike Smith to deploy coverage on the other receivers when they have to play in the nickel formation.
So far the Falcons have been able to keep receivers such as Hines Ward and Larry Fitzgerald from reaching the end zone, but they've never had to face an offense such as the Saints so far this season. I think that Dunta will be able to do the same to Colston on Sunday.
5) How Will Matt Ryan Perform?
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Ryan looked very comfortable in the pocket last Sunday, throwing for three touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals. It was a stark contrast from when the Falcons were in Pittsburgh and Ryan had to deal with heavy pressure all day from the Steelers defense.
Saints Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams will look to pressure Ryan by throwing blitz packages at him and forcing him to get rid of the ball as soon as he can. This could play into Ryan's hands, as he was able to connect with Jason Snelling five times for 57 yards when defenses left him open, which usually happens on a blitz.
Also, Ryan got into a zone against a 3-4 and won't be fazed by the Superdome crowd. Look for Mularkey to call Ryan into some short passing plays to keep the Saints defense honest. Ryan will not be able to throw deep but look for him to hit some deep passes to Tony Gonzalez since safety Darren Sharper is not in the game.
6) How Will Drew Brees' Perform Against Atlanta's Defense?
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Atlanta (as the rest of the NFL) knows that the road to the Super Bowl not only goes through New Orleans, but more importantly through the arm of QB Drew Brees. It is through his leadership and talent that the Saints went from being a laughingstock of a franchise to Super Bowl Champion. He engineers one of the league's top rated offenses, and Atlanta knows they will have to contend with Brees if they want to win on Sunday.
The defense has been a bend-but-don't-break unit so far, allowing just two TDs so far. However, those two TDs have been courtesy of big runs by Rashard Mendendall and Tim Hightower. If they begin to allow Pierre Thomas to get big gains on the ground, Drew Brees will light them up.
Atlanta will have to rely on playing more of a zone defense in order to keep the passes of Brees from sailing over their safeties. Although the Saints offense hasn't kicked into its usual high gear, you know that Brees is looking forward to getting to the end zone more often.
7) Who Will Win?
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This is a much more important game for the Falcons than it is for the Saints. New Orleans is coming home from a short week after a West Coast trip, and Atlanta cruised to an easy victory on Sunday. Also, the Saints lost one of their biggest weapons in Reggie Bush which could hurt the passing game.
That said, I think the Saints still have the one X-factor in Drew Brees, and that alone still makes the difference. Atlanta will keep it close for three quarters due to the running attack, but the improved defense and Drew Brees will make those two to three plays that will make the difference.
New Orleans 23, Atlanta 17
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