South Carolina vs. Auburn: The Important Game In the SEC This Week

Everyone is talking about the Alabama vs. Arkansas game, but the South Carolina at Auburn game is more important. The Gamecocks are looking to keep pace with Florida in the SEC East race, and Auburn can move a game ahead of the Ark/Bama loser in the SEC West race.  Both teams need this win.  Here’s a breakdown. 

Offense:

Auburn’s offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn likes to run an up-tempo, strike quick system led by running the ball.   It is working again this year.   First-year QB Cameron Newton is off to an amazing start.  In three games, Newton has passed for 525 yards with seven TD’s and three INT’s.  He also leads the Tigers in rushing with 309 yards and two TD’s. His height, speed, and strength create major mismatches for opposing defenses.    

The Tigers also have a power/speed combo package in the backfield with Newton.  Freshman RB Michael Dyer is a powerful downhill runner averaging 70 yards a game, and Onterio McCalebb is a small, quick back who likes to get to the corner.  He is averaging 75 yards per game.   

When he is not running the ball, Newton is an efficient passer.  His favorite target is Darvin Adams who is coming off a 118 yard, one TD performance against Clemson.  Adams is a big target, and is known for making crucial plays.   

Even though South Carolina averages 198 yards rushing and 194 yards passing per game, the Gamecocks are hardly a balanced offense.  Led by freshman sensation Marcus Lattimore, SC runs the ball 65 percent of the time.  With 333 yards and five TD’s in his first three games, Lattimore wasted little time in making his impact.  Spurrier finally has a bruising back that is necessary to compete in the defensively tough SEC.

Third-year starting QB Stephen Garcia is off to another slow start, but this may be more to circumstance (Lattimore) than actual performance.  He has passed for 508 yards with a 68 percent completion rate, but he has only two TD’s.  He has also thrown two INT’s.  Garcia’s leading receiver is Alshon Jeffrey who is averaging 102 yards per game. 

Advantage:  Auburn

Defense

Expectations were high that year two in Chizik’s system would be paying dividends on the defensive side of the ball.  Three games into the season, the verdict is still unknown.  The defense currently ranks 58th in FBS in both yardage and points allowed giving up 340 yards and 21pts per game.  By comparison, they gave up 374yds/27pts last year. 

The Tigers’ defense is really a tale of two teams.  They are either making big plays in the backfield, or they are allowing big plays keeping them on the field longer than they should be.  Not helping matters are the defense’s inability to create turnovers and red zone inefficiencies.  

Auburn is led by Nick Fairly (three sacks) and Josh Bynes (23 tackles).  Fairly is frequently creating havoc in the backfield, and Bynes swarms to the ball carrier.  Bynes was also named the SEC’s Defensive Player of the Week for his efforts against Clemson.  Chizik is hoping for a repeat performance against the Gamecocks.

South Carolina has one of the SEC’s top defenses, especially against the run.  The Gamecocks are sixth in the FBS in rushing defense allowing just 60 yards per game.  They are also ninth in scoring defense giving up a little under 13 points per game.  Their goal is to make the opposing team one dimensional, and it is working.  Teams cannot run against this defense.   

The Gamecocks’ are applying defensive pressure from everyone. DL Travian Roberton and DL Devin Taylor both have two sacks, SS DeVonte Holloman already has 20 tackles and two INT’s, CB Stephon Gilmore has an 80 yard interception return for a TD and FS Akeem Auguste has 15 tackles.   There are few, if any, weaknesses in South Carolina’s defense.

Advantage:  South Carolina 

Special Teams

Auburn’s Wes Bynum is once again showing why he is a leading candidate for the Lou Groza Award. On the season, he is 4/5 on field goals and 12/12 on PAT’s.  Punter Ryan Shoemaker is averaging just under 40 yards per kick.  Kick returner Demond Washington is having an impressive start averaging 26 yards per kickoff return.  Quindarius Carr has not been effective on punt returns averaging just seven yards. 

South Carolina’s Chris Culliver is a kickoff return specialist.  He is averaging 21 yards per return—though he has only had to return six kicks.  Kicker Spencer Lanning handles both the punting and kickoff duties.  Lanning is 4/5 on field goals, 12/12 on PAT’s and is averaging 46.5 yards on punts.  Gilmore is the punt returner, and he averages eight yard per return.   

Advantage:  Even

Keys to Victory

On offense, Auburn needs to be stay with the rushing attack, even if it is not successful early in the game.  South Carolina is No. 1 in rushing defense, but this stat might be a little misleading.  They have not faced a Cam Newton type of player yet.  He is a difference maker, and needs to stay patient when the offense is not effecient.   

On defense, the Tigers need to tackle well. Lattimore will get his yards, but they need to stop him from getting yards after the initial contact.  The line also needs to put pressure on Garcia.  Despite the Tigers’ inability to create turnovers, they can force Garcia into making some bad plays, especially on the road where he has traditionally not played very well. 

In his first SEC road game, it is unlikely that Lattimore can carry the team to victory. Spurrier needs to test his young workhorse, but Lattimore’s success will depend on Garcia’s ability to throw the ball.  Spurrier should get Garcia into the game quickly using short routes.  If he’s able to get into rhythm early, Lattimore will have a big game.

Despite their powerful running game, Auburn only averaged 22 points against Clemson and Mississippi State. The Gamecocks should be able to keep the Tigers in check.  The defense should pins their ears back, and come after Newton.  Additionally, the Tigers seem to go into lulls periodically.  South Carolina needs to take advantage of these moments.   

Prediction

Garcia has not been effective on the road in SEC games, and this will continue on Saturday.  The game will be close, but Newton makes enough plays to win the game.  Auburn 24-20.