UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs. Palhares Breakdowns and Predictions

UFC Fight Night comes to the Frank Erwin Center in Austin, Texas. An important Middleweight scrap that could shape the future of a dominated division will serve as the headliner.

Meanwhile, a man some are already hailing as the next great prospect will do battle in the co-main event.

I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks listed. Thanks for reading. Don’t forget to catch the season premier of The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs. Team Koscheck immediately after. Enjoy the fights!

Nate "The Great" Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares

Key Victories :

Marquardt (Demian Maia, Martin Kampmann, Ivan Salaverry, Wilson Gouveia, Jeremy Horn, Dean Lister, Kazuo Misaki, Joe Doerksen, Yves Edwards)

Palhares (Jeremy Horn, Ivan Salaverry)

Forecast :

In the evening’s main event, the "King of Pancrase" meets the "Knee Collector." Rousimar Palhares returns after a 90 day suspension for cranking a prolonged heel hook on Tomasz Drwal at UFC 111. A victory over Nate Marquardt would finally promote him from mid level gatekeeper to Middleweight contender.

Meanwhile, Marquardt returns after his UFC 109 spanking by Chael Sonnen. We’ll see how he rebounds as he looks to thrust himself back into title contention.

Fighting out of Denver, Colorado, Marquardt trains at Jackson’s MMA and High Altitude Martial Arts. His training partners consist of guys like Georges St. Pierre, Rashad Evans, Shane Carwin, Jon Jones, and Keith Jardine.

In Pancrase, he was a three-time Middleweight Champion. His style includes Boxing, Kickboxing, BJJ, and Gaidojitsu. He is a 2nd degree black belt under Ricardo Murgel.

Rousimar Palhares was born in Dores do Indaia, Brazil. He has dedicated his life to BJJ and is considered to have the best leg locks in the world. Out of nine submission victories, six have come by heel hook.

Palhares has a history of injuring opponents. His history led to the disciplinary actions taken after the Drwal bout. He currently trains at Brazilian Top Team with Ricardo Arona, Murilo Bustamante, and David Bielkheden.

Keys to Victory :

If Marquardt wishes to leave this bout with his lower half intact, he has to be alert when Palhares changes levels. Palhares is persistent in his grappling game. He will shoot for takedowns, pull guard, and roll for leglocks.

Marquardt has to be prepared to defend from all angles. It won’t be easy. Palhares is a strong Middleweight with underrated wrestling skills. Good footwork and scrappy scrambling will be key for Marquardt keeping this bout upright.

Marquardt is a black belt in BJJ in his own right, but I wouldn’t recommend seeking a floor tussle with Palhares. He needs to keep the fight on the feet and outpoint Palhares with his superior boxing. Palhares doesn’t have much to offer in the standup department.

Despite being the better boxer, Marquardt has to be stingy with his offense. He needs to put together simple one-twos and be cautious when extending combinations.

Rousimar Palhares needs to stay true to his strengths in this bout, which are takedowns and submissions. At UFC 109, Marquardt struggled against Sonnen’s constant pressure and top control. Palhares should take a page from Sonnen’s book. When taken down, Marquardt tends to become frustrated and doesn’t present much offensive threat.

Palhares needs to frustrate Marquardt and force him into desperation mode. An overly aggressive Marquardt should open up takedowns and chances for Palhares to roll into a heel hook.

Cardio will be the main cause of concern for Palhares. As an elite level Middleweight, Marquardt won’t be easy to finish. Can Palhares’s gas tank hold up for a gritty three round battle? The answer to this question could decide the fight.

Prediction :

This won’t be the most exciting main event due to the cautious nature of its participants. Marquardt will get the better of the few exchanges and avoid Palhares’s takedown attempts en route to a unanimous decision.

Efrain Escudero Vs. Charles Oliveira

Key Victories :

Escudero (Cole Miller, Phillipe Nover, Dan Lauzon)

Oliveira (Darren Elkins)

Forecast :

In the co-main event, Charles Oliveira will step in for the injured Matt Wiman to take on TUF 8 winner, Efrain Escudero. This will be Oliveira’s second fight in the UFC. At UFC on Versus 2, he submitted Darren Elkins with an armbar in the first round.

After losing to Evan Dunham, Escudero rebounded at UFC 114 with a unanimous decision victory over Dan Lauzon. He looks to stay afloat in a deep Lightweight division.

Fighting out of Tempe, Arizona, Efrain Escudero trains at the MMA LAB. One of his teammates is current WEC Lightweight Champion, Ben Henderson. In college, Escudero was an All-American Wrestler in the 2006-2007 season for Pima Community College. His style relies heavily on Wrestling and Kickboxing. In 13 wins, he has racked up nine submission victories.

Charles Oliveira fights out of Houston, Texas. From Brazil, he carries with him an undefeated record of 13-0. He currently trains at Bronx’s Gold Team USA. As a BJJ brown belt, Oliveira has shown a tendency to finish. He has an even six knockouts and submissions.

Keys to Victory :

Considering the depth of Oliveira’s BJJ, Escudero needs to keep this bout on the feet. He should have the boxing advantage over an untested Oliveira. In the standup, Escudero needs to be aggressive but avoid getting clumsy in the exchanges. He doesn’t want to overreach and give Oliveira easy takedowns.

There will be opportunities for Escudero to take the fight to the ground, but he should resist the instinctive urges. Why roll the dice when you have a better chance of winning the bout elsewhere?

Escudero needs to utilize good footwork and come at Oliveira from multiple angles. This would keep Oliveira guessing and push him into telegraphing his offense.

Oliveira should use his tall, lanky frame to his advantage by battering Escudero on the outside with kicks. If Escudero catches a kick for a takedown, it would put Oliveira in a good position. Escudero is a fantastic wrestler, but his offense from top tends to get wild and sloppy. Oliveira needs to be patient and try to catch Escudero when he opens up.

Escudero would love nothing more than this to turn into an all-out slugfest. Oliveira would prove wise to stay away from such brain-jarring shenanigans. The ultimate objective is to flirt with danger long enough to setup the takedown.

Prediction :

Oliveira is an interesting prospect at Lightweight. He possesses a stellar BJJ game that could soon rival the division’s best. At 20 years old, a UFC.com article questioned whether he was the "next Jon Jones."

The sky is the limit for Oliveira. Unfortunately, it just isn’t his time yet.

Escudero is a talented Lightweight who has competed against far better opposition. This is a huge step up in competition for Oliveira. Along with inexperience, Oliveira is forced to deal with a tough style match. Escudero is the better wrestler and striker.

Barring a mental lapse, Escudero will keep the fight standing and catch Oliveira during unnecessary exchanges. The ref will step in as Escudero unleashes a flurry on the Brazilian prospect.

Jim Miller Vs. Gleison Tibau

Key Victories :

Miller (Matt Wiman, Mac Danzig, Duane Ludwig, Mark Bocek)

Tibau (Thiago Alves, Josh Neer, Jeremy Stephens, Rich Clementi, Caol Uno, Terry Etim)

Forecast :

Fighting out of Whippany, New Jersey, Jim Miller is a black belt in BJJ and former NCAA All-American Wrestler at Virginia Tech. Most people know him as the younger brother of UFC Middleweight, Dan Miller. He has amassed an MMA record of 17-2. Ten of those victories came by submission.

Miller’s only career losses came to Gray Maynard and UFC Lightweight Champion, Frankie Edgar. At UFC 111, he defeated Mark Bocek by unanimous decision.

Gleison Tibau was born in Mossoro, Brazil. Like Miller, his style favors Wrestling and BJJ (black belt). He trains at American Top Team with Thiago Alves, Thiago Silva, Gesias Cavalcante, Jorge Santiago, and Denis Kang.

Easily one of the largest Lightweights in the world, Tibau made his UFC debut at UFC 65 against Nick Diaz at Welterweight. After losing by TKO stoppage, he decided to move down to Lightweight. His UFC record stands at 7-4. He is coming off two impressive victories over Josh Neer and Caol Uno.

Keys to Victory :

Miller has to dictate the pace of this fight. He can’t let Tibau bully him with his wrestling. On the feet, both fighters are mediocre at best, but Miller should have a slight advantage. He needs to pressure Tibau with boxing and constant takedowns.

An aggressive approach would make Tibau uncomfortable during exchanges and keep him off-balance when seeking takedowns.

If taken down, Miller has to stay active from bottom. Tibau is a cardio failure waiting to happen. Miller needs to constantly look for submissions and chances to scramble. The objective is to make Tibau work for everything he gets. Don’t allow him to just post up in guard and coast to another decision.

If Tibau watched Miller’s bout with Mark Bocek, he should be smiling right about now. Despite dropping the unanimous decision, Bocek was able to consistently drag Miller to the ground.

Tibau should mix things up on the feet and seek out the single. This will force Miller into a grappling situation. Tibau has a powerful takedown finish. He needs to take Miller down and work from top position.

Vigilance will be key for Tibau’s top control. Bocek was able to get takedowns but struggled at maintaining top position. Tibau needs to control Miller’s hips and beware of incoming sweep and submission attempts.

Prediction :

This bout won’t be as boring as watching paint dry, but fans should expect a snoozer. If Tibau’s gas tank holds up, bank on him securing just enough takedowns and top time to scrape by with the split decision.

Ross Pearson Vs. Cole Miller

Key Victories :

Pearson (Aaron Riley, Dennis Siver, Andre Winner)

Miller (Jorge Gurgel, Dan Lauzon, Leonard Garcia, Junie Browning)

Forecast :

Ross Pearson fights out of Sunderland, England. He is a member of Team Rough House. The Nottingham and Leicester based camp includes Paul Daley, Dan Hardy, Andre Winner, and Nick Osipczak.

Pearson’s style consists of Boxing, Taekwondo (black belt), and Judo (brown belt). He was the Lightweight winner of TUF 9. At UFC Fight Night 21, he took a unanimous decision victory over Dennis Siver.

Fighting out of Boca Raton, Florida, Cole Miller trains at American Top Team with Thiago Alves, Gleison Tibau, Mike Brown, Micah Miller (brother), and Mark Bocek. He is a brown belt in BJJ whose career submission total stands at 11. After losing to Efrain Escudero, Miller rebounded by taking out Dan Lauzon with a modified kimura at UFC 108.

Keys to Victory :

This will be your classic grappler versus striker match. Pearson may be the superior boxer, but he shouldn’t underestimate Miller’s standup. Miller is good at using his height advantage to land on the outside.

Pearson has to utilize range really well in this fight. He should close the distance and pick Miller apart on the inside with combinations. Miller tends to get gun-shy during aggressive exchanges.

Pearson should be prepared to work from the clinch. Miller doesn’t have a great outside shot. He’ll likely seek the clinch to work knees and setup takedowns.

Miller doesn’t brandish the sturdiest beard in the world. He has to stay sharp with his boxing defense. Like Pearson, distance will also be key for Miller. He needs to work Pearson on the outside with kicks and simple one-twos.

Realistically, the best place for Miller to win this fight is on the ground. Pearson’s Judo base makes him incredibly tough to takedown for a grappler like Miller.

The outside shot could be Miller’s best chance at forcing a clinch situation. He may not get the takedown, but he could press Pearson against the cage off a failed attempt. From the clinch, Miller could continue to work for the takedown or rack up points with short strikes.

Prediction :

Expect a violent ending in this one. Pearson will blast Miller on the feet and follow-up on the ground. A stunned Miller will ball up helplessly as the ref saves him from the ensuing onslaught.

Official Picks

Nate Marquardt By Unanimous Decision

Efrain Escudero By Round 1 TKO Stoppage

Gleison Tibau By Split Decision

Ross Pearson By Round 1 TKO Stoppage