FIBA World Championship: Kevin Durant and Team USA Thunder Past Russia

As Team USA rumbled past Russia 89-79 and rolled into the semi-finals of the FIBA World Championships, there were four key points NBA fans should takeaway from the game: 1) Kevin Durant has established himself as the best player at the World Championships; 2) Chauncey Billups has established himself as the best guard in the USA back-court; 3) New Knickerbocker Timofey Mozgov was disappointing; and 4) This team may not be as good as the Redeem Team but Durant has performed better than LeBron James did in the 2008 Olympics.

This analysis will use the metrics for estimating Wins Produced developed by Prof. David Berri of the Wages of Wins Journal to measure how much a player contributes to wins using boxscore statistics. There are two key stats output by these metrics - Estimated Wins Produced per 40 minutes (EWP40) and Estimated Wins Produced (EWP).  Forty minutes is used because that's the length of a game in international competition. For reference, an average player would be expected to produce 0.100 EWP40.

Kevin Durant Is The Best Player In The World

As you can see in the highlights, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were like rain and thunder against Russia. Durant rained jumpers from all over the court while Westbrook thundered past Russian guards for breakaway slams. Westbrook was more flash than substance, however, because his productivity was below average with just 0.059 EWP40. Durant, on the other hand, was the most productive player in the game with an estimated 0.280 wins produced in 37 minutes for an EWP40 of 0.303.  Durant scored 33 points, shot 11-19 from the floor and 8-9 from the free throw line, grabbed five rebounds, blocked two shots and snatched two steals. After a monster performance against Brazil, Durant said he thought Argentina's Luis Scola was the MVP of the World Championships. While Scola was the leading scorer in the tournament, Durant has been more productive, as the table below illustrates.

Comparing Kevin Durant & Luis Scola

All stats are per 40 minutes (category leader in bold)
Points Per Shot = (points-free throws)/shot attempts
Adjusted Shooting Percentage = Points-per-shot divided by two
Net Possessions = Rebounds+Steals-Turnovers
Win Score = PTS+REB+STL+½*BLK+½*AST–FGA–½*FTA–TO–½*PF

Statistics	Average Forward in Team USA Games	Kevin Durant	Luis Scola
Points Per Shot	1.11	1.25	1.16
Adjusted Shooting Percentage	55.7%	62.6%	58.0%
Free Throw Percentage	76.3%	92.6%	84.7%
Shot Attempts	14.4	20.6	20.3
Free Throw Attempts	4.1	6.1	9.6
Points Scored	19.2	31.4	31.7
Rebounds	8.1	9.3	8.8
Steals	2.0	2.7	1.1
Turnovers	2.4	3.2	3.6
Net Possessions	7.7	8.8	6.3
Blocked Shots	0.7	0.9	0.3
Assists	2.4	3.2	1.5
Personal Fouls	3.6	2.0	2.4
Win Score	10.1	17.6	12.6
Est. WP40	0.100	0.394	0.199
Minutes Played		177	246
Est. Wins Produced		1.7	1.2

Durant has outperformed Scola in every category except for free throw attempts, points scored and minutes played. His humility aside, Durant is a better MVP choice than Scola. In fact, among the leading scorers from the four remaining teams, Durant has been the most productive. He may not be the most interesting man in the world, but he has been the best player in the world during the FIBA championships.

Comparing the Top Scorers in the FIBA Semi-Finals

Player (Team)	Minutes	Points Per Game	Est. Wins Produced Per 40 Minutes	Est. Wins Produced
Kevin Durant (USA)	177	19.9	0.394	1.7
Linas Kleiza (LTU)	217	19.1	0.152	0.8
Ersan Ilyasova (TUR)	174	15.7	0.345	1.5
Nenad Krstic (SRB)	100	15.3	0.229	0.6

Chauncey Billups Has Emerged As The Leader In The Back court

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

LAS VEGAS - JULY 24: Chauncey Billups #4 of the 2010 USA Basketball Men's National Team goes in for a layup during a USA Basketball showcase at the Thomas & Mack Center on July 24, 2010 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

My last Team USA article noted that Derrick Rose emerged as the leader in the back court after the preliminary round but Rose had a sub-par game against Russia with -0.042 EWP40. Despite being limited by two quick fouls in the first half, Chauncey Billups was the most productive player per minute with an estimated 0.400 wins produced per 40 minutes. In 27 minutes he produced an estimated 0.270 wins against Russia. That strong performance, combined with his dominant game against Angola (0.926 EWP40), has pushed Billups' productivity past Rose's after seven games in the FIBA World Championships. The table below lists the productivity of Team USA guards in the tournament.

Comparing Team USA Guards

Player	Minutes Played	Est. Wins Produced Per 40 Minutes	Est. Wins Produced
Chauncey Billups	156.0	0.329	1.3
Derrick Rose	170.0	0.242	1.0
Eric Gordon	127.0	0.304	1.0
Russell Westbrook	127.0	0.219	0.7
Stephen Curry	76.0	0.200	0.4

Timofey Mozgov May Not Be The Next Patrick Ewing

Elsa/Getty Images

CLEVELAND - MAY 28: Dwight Howard #12 and assistant coach Patrick Ewing of the Orlando Magic talk on the sideline against the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals during the 2009 Playoffs at Quicken Loans Arena on May 28, 2009

Despite concerns about Russia's size, their big men couldn't match the productivity of Team USA's centers. Unfortunately for the Knicks, the Russian center they signed to a three-year, $9.7 million contract was the least productive. Timofey Mozgov produced an estimated -0.150 wins per 40 minutes against Team USA. If it's any comfort for Knicks fans, the least productive player in the game, on a per-minute basis, was Rudy Gay with a -0.374 EWP40. Kevin Love also had his worst game of the FIBA World Championships with -0.117 EWP40. Love is still the second-most productive player on Team USA with an estimated 1.33 wins produced, but Chauncey Billups is closing in with an estimated 1.28 wins produced after seven games.

Russian Roulette: Redeem Team Or Kevin Durant?

The Redeem Team was more dominant against the Russians than Kevin Durant's crew

The Redeem Team's win over Russia was more dominant than this win in the FIBA World Championships. The sum of the Redeem Team's estimated wins produced against Russia was 1.073 while the sum of estimated wins produced for the 2010 team was only 0.861. Kevin Durant's performance, however, was superior to LeBron James' performance against Russia. While Durant produced an estimated 0.303 wins per 40 minutes, LeBron had a terrible game and fouled out with -0.171 EWP40. Durant produced an estimated 0.280 wins against Russia while LeBron produced an estimated -0.102 wins. If Durant can keep raining jumpers in Turkey, fans will not only witness him bring an end to the United States' drought at the World Championships, but they could also be witnessing the making of an NBA MVP in 2011. As I said in my previous article, "Fear the Durantula."