Tennessee Football: Five Keys To a Vols Upset Over Oregon

For the first time in a while, maybe ever, the Vols are double-digit underdogs at home. And who can blame the oddsmakers for the opening 13.5 point line that has settled around the 12 point range now? I mean, this is a top-10 Oregon team who expects nothing less than a Rose Bowl appearance against a small, athletically depleted Tennessee football team who would welcome a six win season and an appearance in the Music City Bowl with open arms.

There's not much reason, on paper, that this game should even be close.

That, my friends, is why football games aren't played on paper. Football games are played in 100,000-seat sanctuarys with the vast majority of those seats being occupied by fanatics wearing odd-colored clothing and screaming at the top of their lungs. Football is played on a field with green grass (or field turf) with guys who have heart, talent, and a keen knowledge of the playbook.

So, to dismiss this as a Duck-domination-in-waiting would be premature.

Here are a few reasons why you can't count the Vols out just yet.

Neyland Stadium

Joe Murphy/Getty Images

KNOXVILLE, TN - SEPTEMBER 12: A general view of the stadium during a game between the UCLA Bruins and the Tennessee Volunteers on September 12, 2009 at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee. UCLA beat Tennessee 19-15. (Photo by Joe Murphy/Getty Images)

Remember all of that stuff about playing in a 100,000-seat sanctuary in front of a bunch of college football-crazies from the opening slide? Well, there are not many places in the college football world where that effect has more potential bearing on a game than at Neyland Stadium.

The Ducks have a great record at home as well. For the Ducks, however, the thing is Autzen Stadium holds roughly half of the crazies that Neyland does. Besides, the Ducks are used to their 50,000-plus cheering for them. Saturday night in Knoxville there will be a couple of pockets of just one thousand cheering the Ducks on.

Oregon has been preparing and practicing all week by pumping Rocky Top as loud as it will go at their practice facility. I have news for you, guys. Nothing will prepare you for the craziness of Rocky Top every three minutes and 100,000 strong all hating you at one time.

Travel Factor: Ducks Tired Wings

Steve Dykes/Getty Images

EUGENE, OR - SEPTEMBER 04: Linebacker Casey Matthews #55 of the Oregon Ducks (L) and free safety John Boyett #20 of the Oregon Ducks (R) gang up to tackle running back Demond Dennis #1 of the New Mexico Lobos in the first quarter of the game at Autzen Sta

Remember when the Cal Bears traveled from San Francisco, CA to Neyland Stadium in '06? That team was in the top 10 during the preseason and had really high expectations. That team quickly found out how difficult it is to shake the cobwebs to compete in a hostile environment.

The Vols went up 35-0 after three quick touchdowns to start the third quarter. The game was never close.

Tennessee flew out to California the next season, and the Bears returned the favor. A terrible UCLA team would do the same to the visiting Vols in '08, as well.

If the Ducks can quickly shake off the awe of Neyland Stadium, its fans, and the culture shock/jet lag that they will surely experience, it will be a long night for the Vols. If not, Derek Dooley's team could just gain enough confidence early to stay in the game all the way through.

Pound The Rock

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

GAINESVILLE, FL - SEPTEMBER 19: David Oku #27 of the Tennessee Volunteers runs during the game against the Florida Gators at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on September 19, 2009 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

It's past time to get back to old-fashioned Tennessee football. Pound it out on the ground and ask questions later. The Vols have been a part of the nation's best at grinding out games in the trenches. From the days of Charlie Garner and James "Little Man" Stewart to more recent times when Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty toted the rock, the Vols were always running.

This offensive line is younger, less-experienced, and a tad smaller than those prolific runners ran behind. But there's no denying that Tauren Poole is just the latest in a long line of talented runners at Tennessee. Poole can run over, around, and through the competition.

David Oku has the speed to separate from pursuit, even the super-speedy pursuit that Oregon is sure to bring.

The Ducks are quick and fast, but not huge up front. If Tennessee can dictate the line of scrimmage with a bunch of inexperienced underclassmen, the Vols have a chance to pull the upset.

Use The Ducks Speed Against Them

Steve Dykes/Getty Images

EUGENE, OR - SEPTEMBER 04: Running back Kenjon Barner #24 of the Oregon Ducks heads for the endzone past safety Bubba Forrest of the New Mexico Lobos and a touchdown in the second quarter of the game at Autzen Stadium on September 4, 2010 in Eugene, Orego

All we've heard since January is how fast these Oregon players are. Whether it was their breakaway speed from Eugene's finest or how fast they are on the field, speed is all we have heard about regarding these Ducks.

It's true, too. Oregon is loaded with upper-classmen on defense, most of whom run like gazelles. How can the Vols turn the tables and use Oregon's speed against them?

Screens, draws, and playaction. Of course, the Tennessee running game, which we just covered, will have to be on top of its game for playaction and the dink-and-dunk offense to work, but it is a viable option on offense for the Vols to keep the ball away from Oregon's offense. Make the Ducks overpursue. Keep them on their toes on all night with play fakes. Make the defense beat itself.

The question then becomes, is this Vols offense talented enough to bang it out on the ground in order to set up the play-fake? We'll find out Saturday night.

Pray For Rain

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

DENVER - AUGUST 30: Rain sheets down before a game between the University of Colorado Buffaloes and the Colorado State University Rams at Invesco Field at Mile High on August 30, 2003 in Denver, Colorado. Colorado defeated Colorado State 42-35. (Photo by

Guess what slows down really fast teams. Yep, that's right. Rain and wet conditions can sometimes be the great equalizer in football.

Of course, the Vols who are not slow by any stretch of the imagination, will be tested by those same conditions. But a game at the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium, especially in the rain, could provide an advantage for the Vols.

Since the Ducks like to move as quickly as possible on offense, averaging under two minutes on every scoring drive in their 72-0 win over New Mexico last week, rain would get them out of their element rather quickly. Whereas the Vols would likely benefit, especially if the game plan is to pound the rock and play stall-ball on offense.

Rain might not be preferable for the thousands of fans in attendance, but leaving Neyland Stadium soaked from head-to-toe, with the sniffles is a small price to pay for a 2-0 start and a win over the No. 7 team in the country.

Prediction

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

KNOXVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 2: Corey Campbell #26 of the Tennessee Volunteers looks at the scoreboard after losing the game 34-10 against the Auburn Tigers at Neyland Stadium on October 2, 2004 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

The Vols will keep this game close through the first half. There will be jitters from both teams and there's likely to be somewhat of a sluggish start on both sides of the ball.

Oregon will score just before the half to take a 14-10 lead.

Tennessee will go ahead early in the third quarter and appear to be giving the home crowd plenty to cheer about in early September. But the Ducks are just too deep compared to the Vols lack of depth and Oregon will rise to the top late in the third and early fourth quarter.

Oregon wins 34-20.