Miami Dolfan Diaries Week 1 Preview: Dolphins Vs Bills and Other NFL Action

Football is finally here, and I couldn't be any happier.

Yesterday night I posted my NFL preview. (More shameless self-promotion, let's see if I can go on a streak of how many articles I'll write where I plug a previous article of mines.)

Today I'll pick the games and give a preview of what I have in store for this upcoming NFL season and give a preview of this weeks Dolphins vs. Bills game.  I'll start with the picks.

Now when I do these picks, I not only pick the game straight up, but also pick it against the spread. If you're offended by gambling, wait I'm writing this on Bleacher Report, no one on here is offended by gambling.  If anything everyone on this site is either in a suicide pool (I'll give that lock out later) or has money on at least one game. That should mean no need to apologize. 

New Orleans (-6) over Minnesota

This just has one of those makings of an over-hyped nationally televised contest that is over by the third quarter. I don't believe in the Vikings much this year, I don't even have them as a playoff team, plus their receiving core is decimated which I'm sure has Brett Favre possibly regretting his decision. The defense for the Vikings is still there, but New Orleans' offense is so good it won't make a difference. Saints 38 Vikings 19.

Carolina (+6) over New York Giants

The Giants get to open their brand spanking new stadium against the team they closed it against. That didn't exactly play out too well. Neither of these teams look like playoff teams to me, and having the Giants as a six point favorite doesn't make much sense to me either. I could understand three or three and a half, but not six, which will be proven correct when the Giants defeat the Panthers by three. Giants 17 Panthers 14.

Atlanta (-1.5) over Pittsburgh

I know based off of reading other NFL articles that Steelers fans tend to be the most sensitive in the NFL, and thus will find a clever rebuke to this. Yes they're the underdog, and yes it has to do with the uncertainty at quarterback. But Atlanta is legitimately good, and had the Steelers had Big Ben for this game it would be one of those week 1 WOW classics with Pittsburgh pulling it out. But instead what it looks like is a team going into Pittsburgh that can play Steelers football better than the actual Steelers can, and that will be the difference. Falcons 20 Steelers 13.

Detroit (+7) over Chicago

This is definitely a reputation line. Two years ago not only do you get away with this being the line for this game, but you start thinking it might be too low. Today I'm shocked that this line is so high. I understand the Bears being favored in this game, they are at home, but that should mean a line of no more than three and half. Seven? Excessive. Especially since the Bears won't even pull out the victory, and Ndamukong Suh will have some fun with Jay Cutler and Mike Martz' offense plus a weak Bears O-line. Lions 17 Bears 7.

New England (-6) over Cincinnati

This seems to be a "sexy" pick to go with the Bengals. Even though the game is in Foxborough, and Carson Palmer isn't as great as advertised and has to deal with two prima donnas. I somehow see this is a 07 style New England Patriots blowout. Patriots 38 Bengals 16.

Cleveland (+2.5) over Tampa Bay

This game is such a stinker that I just had to look at one factor: What's Jake Delhomme's stats against the Buccaneers? It made sense, he has been in their division for most of their career meaning two games a season against them. As you can tell by my pick, I was impressed by his stats, especially considering that his 10-2 record against them came when Gruden was their head coach and they were a much better team. I'm not saying Delhomme is going to have a renaissance in Cleveland, but it does help for him to start the season on a new team against a team that he's done well against, especially when that team is terrible. Browns 20 Bucaneers 10.

Denver (-1.5) over Jacksonville

Time out. What's with the idea of putting the good teams against each other and the bad teams against each other on week 1? Doesn't the NFL know that we have suicide pools to pick? This game has one, exactly ONE subplot to it: will the Broncos insert Tebow for at least a snap in his hometown, and what reaction will it get. Ok make that two: will the Jaguars sell this game out and if they do will it be their only sell out? This game is really only vital for fantasy owners who own Maurice Jones-Drew. (Or is it Drew-Jones? I always get the two confused.) Broncos 10 Jaguars 3.

Houston (+3) over Indianapolis

Yes I said it. I predicted that the Texans would steal the AFC South from the Colts, and to do that, they have to take at least one game from them. What better game than opening day at home? Texans 32 Colts 29.

Oakland (+7) over Tennessee

I have the Raiders covering, not winning this game, big difference. Much likes Lions-Bears, this line is based off of reputation. But unlike Lions-Bears, I can see where Vegas is coming from. I still expect my pick to be the 2010 AFC West Champions, the Oakland Raiders, to keep it close. But Chris Johnson will in the end be too much. Titans 20 Raiders 17.

Green Bay (-2.5) over Philadelphia

The venue makes the spread closer than it should be. While I expect good things from Kolb this year, I expect bigger things from the Packers. Plus wouldn't Kolb be better off starting his first game on the road? I mean Philadelphia isn't exactly known for their patient fans, and he's replacing probably the best quarterback in Eagles history. Packers 35 Eagles 24.

San Francisco (-2) over Seattle

The 49ers begin their quest to win their first division title in eight years.  If you would've told me back in fifth grade that I'd ever type those words, I would've thought you were crazy. Usually I go with the highly hyped new coach first home game corollary since highly hyped new coaches somehow always seem to win their first home game especially if they were big time college coaches (unless you're Jimmy Johnson, although he did recover quite nicely from that setback) but the 49ers just seem too hungry this year, and as far as coaching in the pros its so different that Singletary has the edge. 49ers 35 Seahawks 10

St. Louis (+3.5) over Arizona

Yes I know I predicted the Cardinals to go to the playoffs, and yes I know the Rams suck, but remember: a. I predicted the Cardinals would get in with an 8-8 record and b. they've been a mess this week. Meanwhile the Rams have been focused on this game and will come out showing it in front of the home crowd. Rams 21 Cardinals 13

Dallas (-4) over Washington

McNabb always does well against the Cowboys, but its week one! You know who owns week one? Tony Romo. Has he ever had a bad week one? This is the time to really bet on Romo, its when he's reliable for a 22/38 327 yards four touchdowns no interceptions and a QB rating of 146.5! Cowboys 36 Redskins 13.

Baltimore (+3) over New York Jets

This line is definitely a home field line. But let's please stop acting like the Jets of 2010 are the next incarnation of the 85 Bears or 89 49ers. They remind me of any other Jets team: over-hyped and 7-9. Where as the Ravens are actually going to win their division this year. Still a low scoring game though, they won't let Flacco take too many chances against this Jets D. Ravens 16 Jets 7.

And now, The Suicide Pool Lock Of The Week:

San Diego (+6) over Kansas City

It was between this and Dolphins/Bills for my suicide pool lock for this week, but I went with this game because I'm not too much of a homer. I'm not saying that the Chargers are great this year, far from it. But regardless of the fact that its at Arrowhead, one of my favorite NFL stadiums because of the great Chiefs crowds and the smell of Kansas City Bar-B-Que that surrounds it on gamedays, the Chiefs are still not that good, and the Chargers have lost a lot but still have Phillip Rivers, who for this game at least will remember that Antonio Gates is his Tight End. Chargers 27 Chiefs 20.

The Miami Dolphins This Week

Miami (-3) over Buffalo

This was probably the game that kept the Dolphins out of the playoffs last season. Had they beat the Bills in Buffalo, the Dolphins would've been one game out going into a showdown with the Patriots that they ended up winning. Instead turnovers plagued the Dolphins and they end up falling to 5-6 as opposed to moving up to 6-5. But this year is different for the Dolphins. Its different for the Bills too, however only in the way that lethal injection is different from the gas chamber, regardless of the method, the result is the same. The line just shows how well Vegas knows the Dolphins, which isn't very well at all. I expect the Dolphins to be a playoff team, and playoff teams do more than cover three point spreads against bad teams. Dolphins 24 Bills 10.

Miami aka The U (+8) over THE Ohio State University

Here's this game in a nutshell. If Miami wins, they exact revenge upon Ohio State for 2003, prove to the country that they're back by beating the #2 team on the road and thrust themselves into the National Championship conversation, propel Jacory Harris into the top-3 Heisman Candidates, and boost up their confidence going forward in a season in which they only play four other top-25 teams with two of them being at home.

If they lose then they lose but they aren't knocked off track from winning the ACC which is their main goal this year, and unless its a blowout they won't dip too far in the polls since they will have lost to the #2 team in the country on the road. Now with Ohio State, a win means they take care of business against a lower ranked team at home and nothing more. A loss means they're all but knocked out of the National Championship picture, and Pryor's Heisman candidacy goes under an even bigger microscope. More pressure seems to be on the Buckeyes, and the Canes have a big advantage when it comes to speed, which will decide the game in the end. Canes 31 Buckeyes 26.

Now as for why the title of this article has "Dolfan Diaries" in it, its because I am a Miami Dolphins fan, colloquially (for the Bleacher Report's NBA writers that means "informal") known as Dolfans. Each week, either on the Monday or Tuesday (and in the case of the Bears game November 18th, Friday.) I will post an article describing the games actions, part running diary, part narrative, with my own observations of not just the Dolphins and their opponents, but of the fans, the commercials, the announcers, and everything having to do with the game and around the game. So for all of you Dolphins fans or fans of teams the Dolphins are playing, or even fans of the teams the Dolphins play one week that you play the next, check it out and get some analysis. Plus, under the Dolfan Diaries banner, I'll be running my weekly NFL picks every Thursday and they'll be posted at noon Miami time. (That's Eastern Daylight or Eastern Standard time, again, I have to give explanations to the Bleacher Report's NBA writers.)

So have a great season everybody, and remember, don't lose too much betting on games, don't eat too many wings, don't drink and drive, happy football to all, and Go Dolphins!