2011 Mock Draft: Last-Minute Projections for the Entire First Round
The NFL draft is finally here. After months of speculations, rumors, and workouts, today is the day that all the questions are answered.
The sad truth about the NFL draft is that every single mock draft, by default, is wrong. This is because each mock draft assumes that there will be no trades, which there always are.
Taking that into consideration, this mock draft will be a final complete prediction of how I think the first round will play out, including trades.
1) Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
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The Panthers have a lot of options with this pick, but with no trade partners and no franchise quarterback, they grab Newton here.
Newton is raw and will take a lot of coaching to develop, but his talent is undeniable. He is a natural leader with a cannon for an arm and great running skills.
I personally think Blaine Gabbert is the best option here, but general opinion is against me, and I would be very surprised if Newton wasn't the first pick.
2) Denver Broncos: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
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Throughout the draft process, this is one of the few picks that has not changed. Champ Bailey is near the end of his career, and after a year or two, Peterson will be ready to be the No. 1 corner on the Broncos defense.
Peterson is big, fast, athletic, and can even return kicks. I think he's the best overall player in the draft, and the Broncos will grab him at two.
3) Washington Redskins (From Bills): Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
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The Redskins have never been afraid to make a bold move, and they make a big splash by trading up with the Bills.
The Redskins are very interested in Gabbert, but with quarterback needy teams like the Bengals, Cardinals, and Titans all picking before their spot at ten, and it is extremely unlikely that Gabbert will slip all the way down to them.
Gabbert is probably more NFL-ready than Cam Newton, and has the intangibles to be a great quarterback. He may not make as much of an immediate impact as Sam Bradford, but has the potential to be very good.
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4) Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
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A.J. Green might be the best overall player in the draft behind Patrick Peterson. He is freakishly athletic and can make all the catches.
With the uncertainty surrounding the Bengals receiving corps and the top two quarterbacks off the board already, I think Green is the best option for the Bengals.
Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
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The Cardinals are pleasantly surprised to have talented OLB Von Miller drop to them at five.
Miller fits perfectly into the Cardinals 3-4 scheme, which currently employs over-the-hill linebackers Joey Porter and Clark Haggans.
Miller is a relentless edge rusher who can make an immediate impact and is an early candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
6) Cleveland Browns: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
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The Browns could well aid their struggling defensive line with this pick, but the lack of depth at the wide receiver position in this class makes finding a target for Colt McCoy more urgent.
Julio Jones is a strong, talented playmaker who can do it all and will be a welcome addition to the Browns offense.
7) San Francisco 49ers: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
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With the incredible depth and talent available in this year's defensive line class, teams will scramble to fill their other holes early and count on the fact that there will be good defensive lineman left in the later rounds.
As a result, I think that Dareus, the top defensive line prospect in this year's class, falls all the way to seven.
The 49ers have several needs they could fill with this pick, but Dareus is definitely the best player available with this pick. Dareus is too talented to pass on, and the 'Niners shore up their defensive line with this pick.
8) Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
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Nick Fairley was once projected as the top D-lineman in the draft and a sure-fire top three pick, but character concerns and the rise of Marcell Dareus have dropped his stock.
Still, I think he has the ability to be a very disruptive force in the NFL.
The Titans haven't had a strong presence on their defensive line since the departure of Albert Haynesworth. Robert Quinn is a strong possibility here, but I think they go with Fairley.
9) Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
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It's no secret that the Cowboys need offensive line help. It was their Achilles heel last season, as the pressure opposing defenses created eventually knocked Tony Romo out for most of the season.
I don't think Smith is the best tackle in the draft. I would rather have both Anthony Castonzo and Gabe Carimi. But Smith is a better athlete and has a higher ceiling, and the Cowboys have displayed obvious interest.
10) Buffalo Bills (From Redskins): Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
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After trading with the Redskins, the Bills have a wide range of talented defensive options, and with Amukamara still on the board, I think they grab him.
Amukamara isn't a ball-hawk, nor does he have elite athleticism, but he is a shutdown corner, much like Darrelle Revis.
He can latch onto a team's No. 1 receiver and completely take him out of the game, and the Bills could definitely use that.
11) Houston Texans: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina
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With the arrival of Wade Phillips, the Texans defense switched to a 3-4. Mario Williams, their edge-rushing threat, is probably better suited as a 3-4 end than outside linebacker, so the Texans are without edge rushers.
While their secondary definitely needs upgrading, it's too early to reach for one of the second-tier corners.
Robert Quinn was dominant in 2009, but was suspended for the 2010 season. However, he showed up to the combine fit and ready to play. He projects to be a great outside linebacker in the 3-4, so he should fit well with the Texans.
12) Philadelphia Eagles (From Vikings): Cameron Jordan, DE, California
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With the lockout lifted, trades are allowed, and I think that the Eagles will send Kevin Kolb and a late-round pick to the Vikings for their first-round pick.
Cameron Jordan has barely any issues with his game. Some prefer him as a 3-4 end, but he is a dominant run stuffer, and will smoothly fit into the Eagles DE rotation.
13) Detroit Lions: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
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Bowers' stock has plummeted following a less-than-stellar workout and multiple reports questioning the long-term health of his knee. The Lions, though, have expressed interest, and I expect them to grab Bowers if he falls to them.
Bowers was the most dominant pass rusher in college football last season, but teams will shy away from him due to his injury potential. If he is as good as he can be, he and Ndamukong Suh will dominate on the Lions D-line for years to come.
14) St. Louis Rams: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
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The Rams need to bolster their run defense, and Liuget is an ideal pick for them. He plays hard and uses his hands well, and will be a nice addition to Steve Spagnuolo's defense.
15) Pittsburgh Steelers (From Miami): Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida
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The Miami Dolphins start off a long string of possible landing spots for Mike Pouncey, so if the Steelers want him, this is where they should trade up.
Pouncey is as close as you can get to a sure pick for the Steelers. His twin is a Pro Bowl center for the Steelers already, and Mike Pouncey is probably a better guard than center anyway.
They can both motivate and feed off one another, and with Chris Kemoeatu at left guard, the interior of Pittsburgh's line can be a strength, not a weakness.
16) Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
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Kerrigan is the ultimate try-hard player. He may not have the size of a prototypical end, but he works hard and hustles on every play.
Kerrigan is a pass rusher who specializes at stripping the quarterback. The Jaguars will love him.
17) New England Patriots: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
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This pick annoys me. I'm certain that the Patriots will trade down from this pick to acquire more selections in the later rounds, but surveying the remaining teams in the first round, I just can't find a suitable trade partner.
But on the slim off-chance that they don't trade, it will be J.J. Watt. An ideal 3-4 end, Watt is a hard worker and natural leader for a young Patriots defense.
18) San Diego Chargers: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
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San Diego needs a linebacker to fill the void opposite Shawne Phillips. Ayers is a strong, physical linebacker who can come in and contribute right away.
19) New York Giants: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
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The Giants are in desperate need of a every-down back. Brandon Jacobs' powerful running style has taken its toll, and Ahmad Bradshaw is much better suited as a third-down back.
Ingram may not be the fastest guy in the world, but he runs angry and should be able to start right away for the Giants.
20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
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Aldon Smith is an outstanding athlete at the defensive end position. He really knows how to get into a team's backfield and be disruptive, and would be a good fit with Gerald McCoy along the Buccaneers front.
21) Kansas City Chiefs: Anthony Castonzo, T/G, Boston College
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Anthony Castonzo is the best player available at this point, so the Chiefs grab him here.
He can play most of the positions along the offensive line, and has the potential to develop into a starting left tackle.
22) Indianapolis Colts: Andy Dalton, QB, TCU
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There is a lot of buzz surrounding Dalton, who is quickly moving up draft boards. I think the Colts are more serious than some people think about grooming Peyton's replacement, and will grab Dalton here.
Despite Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett still being on the board, Dalton seems almost like a younger Peyton Manning. He is a bit smaller, but shows the same kind of intelligent decision-making that makes Peyton so dangerous.
After watching Peyton for a few more years, Dalton should be prepared to take the reins of the Colts offense when Manning retires.
23) Philadelphia Eagles: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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Gabe Carimi is a beast. I mean just look at the picture. The guy is massive. He fills out his 6'7" frame quite nicely, and is a powerful blocker.
The Eagles need help desperately on the offensive line, so they grab Carimi here.
24) New Orleans Saints: Muhammad Wilkerson, DL, Temple
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The Saints can always use more talented linemen to add to their mix.
Wilkerson is a versatile player who can play most of the positions on the defensive line.
25) Seattle Seahawks: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
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Surprisingly, Locker falls all the way to the Seahawks at 25. Matt Hasselbeck is nearing the end, and Charlie Whitehurst hasn't shown much promise.
Locker is a winner who plays hard. He can play through pain, and will sacrifice himself for the team. He has great arm strength.
The only problem with Locker is his accuracy and mechanics, but sitting for a year behind Hasselbeck should help prepare those aspects of his game, so he can be ready to start when the time comes.
26) Baltimore Ravens: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
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The Ravens secondary is the one weak spot of their otherwise stellar defense. Jimmy Smith is a tall, physical corner who can also help out in run support.
He will make a valuable addition to the Ravens secondary.
27) Atlanta Falcons: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
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The Falcons expressed interest in trading up for one of the top-tier receivers, but with that chance gone, they take the third best option: Baldwin.
Baldwin is a tall, rangy receiver who can really stretch a defense, and he will compliment Roddy White nicely.
28) Cleveland Browns (From Patriots): Cam Heyward, DE, Ohio State
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I can definitely see the Browns trading back into the first round here. They need help on the defensive line in a bad way, and Heyward is ready to start from Day One.
29) Chicago Bears: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
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The Chicago Bears need someone to fill the hole Tommie Harris left in the middle of the defensive line, and Paea fits perfectly.
He is ridiculously strong, bench pressing 49 reps at the combine, and can really eat up blockers in the middle.
30) New York Jets: Justin Houston, LB, Georgia
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The Jets are desperate for some kind of presence off the edge in their 3-4 defense. Houston can definitely provide that and be a force for years to come.
31) Miami Dolphins: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
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After trading with the Steelers, the Dolphins are able to grab Mallett at 31. Mallett has had character issues as well as concerns about his accuracy, but overall, he's a good quarterback.
Chad Henne is still barely a starter, and the addition of Ryan Mallett will either motivate him to succeed, or dethrone him from the starting role.
32) Green Bay Pacers: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
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While there are questions about his foot, Taylor's talent is undeniable. He will provide another big body up front for the defending champions.
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