2010 Pac10 Predictions

With the first games being played tonight, I thought it was high time to write out a Pac10 prediction.  All the craziness of the off-season appears to be over now, and with Utah reportedly to join next year, this will be the last year of the Pac10.  Crazy, right?  With USC not able to play in a bowl game, loss of scholarships coming up, and the loss of many players to other schools as a result, its anyone’s guess who the top team to beat is now.  Well, here’s mine.  Granted, I am an OSU homer, so take it with a grain of salt.

Note: Non-Conference Predictions will not be done in depth.

Oregon State

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EUGENE,OR - DECEMBER 03: Wide receiver James Rodgers #8 of Oregon State Beavers acelebrates scoring a touchdown with teammate Jordan Bishop #23 during the second quarter of the game against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium on December 3, 2009 in Eugene

Non-Conference Prediction:  2-1

Conference Prediction: 7-2

Total Record Prediction: 9-3

There are a lot of things to love about this team and two to hate.  Ryan Katz is the new quarterback, and his lack of experience may make me look like a fool.  The losses of linebacker David Pa’aluhi and defensive end Matt LaGrone make the defense a bit shakier than they already looked, and S Cameron Collins’ move to LB is nothing to be happy about.  That said, natural growth from within a young front seven from last year and the depth of playing time across these players along with DC Mark Banker’s ability to groom defenses makes me think this won’t be as bad as it looks right now.  My prediction puts the Beavers in the Rose Bowl for the first time since the 60s.

Likely Losses: @Arizona, @Stanford

Big Win: Civil War @home

Bowl Prediction: Rose

Oregon

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EUGENE,OR - NOVEMBER 14: Running back LaMichael James #21of the Oregon Ducks looks for some running room in the first quarter of the game against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Autzen Stadium on November 14, 2009 in Eugene, Oregon. James has 118 yards an

Non-Conference Prediction:  3-0

Conference Prediction: 7-2

Total Record Prediction: 10-2

Oregon would be a national title contender were it not for Masoli and the much-publicized mistakes he and several teammates have made during the off-season.  Replacing a QB is not easy, although the Ducks seem to do this better than most, finding players when they need them most.  Darron Thomas will try to fill the shoes this season, but if he falters, Nate Costa, perennial backup, will make his presence known.  LaMichael James and company will be just fine until the new QB gets on his feet, and the previously-maligned Oregon defense is looking very good with young talent at every position, most notably on the defensive line with DT Brandon Bair and DE Kenny Rowe.

Likely Losses: @Cal, @Oregon State

Big Win: @USC

Bowl Prediction: At-Large BCS? More likely Alamo Bowl

Stanford

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PALO ALTO, CA - NOVEMBER 21: Toby Gerhart #7 of the Stanford Cardinal runs with the ball during their game against the California Bears at Stanford Stadium on November 21, 2009 in Palo Alto, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Non-Conference Prediction:  2-1

Conference Prediction: 6-3

Total Record Prediction: 8-4

Jim Harbaugh is a great coach, and his QB Andrew Luck was ridiculously good last year, but losing a Heisman runner-up (RB Toby Gerhart) will keep this team from truly contending.  WR Chris Owusu may end the season with the title of best returner and be a Pac-10 1^st teamer as a WR as well, but it won’t quite be enough to shore up a defense that is still a bit, well, Stanford-like.  My prediction is also that no one outside of the Farm will see the biggest cause for a downturn in rushing production is actually FB/LB Owen Marecic playing more on the defensive side of the ball this season.  The kid is quite simply one of the best football players in the country, and will be a very good addition for the defense, but that said, replacing him at FB is impossible.

Likely Losses: @Oregon, Oregon State, @Washington

Big Win: USC @home

Bowl Prediction: Holiday Bowl

USC

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LOS ANGELES, CA - MAY 01: Head coach Lane Kiffin looks on during the USC Trojans spring game on May 1, 2010 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

Non-Conference Prediction:  4-0

Conference Prediction: 6-3

Total Record Prediction: 10-3

With all that’s been made about USC’s punishments, this is still a very talented team, but with all the craziness, I just don’t see them able to stay concentrated enough to keep with the determined teams with something to actually achieve.  Matt Barkley may be a very good QB, and the RB-by-committee is still in place, but their offense will be third in the conference, maybe fourth.  The defense will be very good under Monte Kiffin, but will not be that much better than last year’s overrated unit.

Likely Losses: Oregon, @Stanford, @Oregon State

Big Win: Cal

Bowl Prediction: Staying home

Cal

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PALO ALTO, CA - NOVEMBER 21: Shane Vereen #34 of the California Bears runs with the ball during their game against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium on November 21, 2009 in Palo Alto, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Non-Conference Prediction:  3-0

Conference Prediction: 5-4

Total Record Prediction: 8-4

Losing a player like Jahvid Best doesn’t hurt too much when his backup is a player like Shane Vereen.  It’s that simple.  Tedford is a decent coach, and has loudly built a program just outside of the top-25 that seems to be missing one thing, but as to what that may be is anyone’s guess.  Kevin Riley will finally be the QB he was supposed to be and have around a 60% completion rate, but other than Oregon’s typical issues dealing with Strawberry Canyon, this team doesn’t have what it takes to defeat the top dogs in the conference. 

Likely Losses: @USC, @Oregon State, Stanford, @Arizona

Big Win: Oregon @home

Bowl Prediction: Sun Bowl

Washington

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SEATTLE - DECEMBER 05: Jake Locker #10 of the Washington Huskies runs the ball during game against the California Bears on December 5, 2009 at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. The Huskies defeated the Bears 42-10. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Imag

Non-Conference Prediction:  2-1

Conference Prediction: 5-4

Total Record Prediction: 7-5

Jake Locker will bring the Huskies to a bowl game in his senior season.  He will be impressive and Coach Sarkisian will look very good as Locker raises his completion percentage to around 60.  That said, the defense wasn’t ready last year, and after some tough losses on that side of the ball, they still won’t be very good, but RB Chris Polk will eat enough clock to keep the Huskies in several games they will lose by only a few points.  Welcome, Huskies, back to relevance.  Now quiet down.

Likely Losses: @Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Cal

Big Win: Stanford @home

Bowl Prediction: Emerald Bowl

Arizona

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TEMPE, AZ - NOVEMBER 28: Wide reciver Keola Antolin #2 of the Arizona Wildcats rushes for a 68 yard touchdown past Terell Carr #5 of the Arizona State Sun Devils during the college football game at Sun Devil Stadium on November 28, 2009 in Tempe, Arizona

Non-Conference Prediction:  2-1

Conference Prediction: 4-5

Total Record Prediction: 6-6

Nick Foles is a very good QB and Arizona’s RB committee scares me more than USC’s, but with all the defensive questions, your guess is as good as mine.  The non-conference game against Iowa should tell us quite a bit more about this team, but right now, I’m hesitant to put them near the top of the conference.  This team is the most likely to make me look like a fool.  That said, changing defensive strategies when you were at the doorsteps of the BCS just screams disappointing season.  Mike Stoops will keep Arizona in the discussion, but for a lesser bowl.

Likely Losses: @Oregon, Oregon State, @Stanford, USC, Washington

Big Win: Cal

Bowl Prediction: Las Vegas Bowl

UCLA

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KNOXVILLE, TN - SEPTEMBER 12: Rahim Moore #3 and Alterraun Verner #1 of the UCLA Bruins celebrate at the end of the game against the Tennessee Volunteers on September 12, 2009 at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee. The Bruins beat the Volunteers 19-1

Non-Conference Prediction:  2-1

Conference Prediction: 2-7

Total Record Prediction: 4-8

Rick Neuheisel can really recruit.  That said, I predict he loses his job this off-season.  The defense will not be as good as it was last season, and the offense will be just plain lost.  QB Kevin Prince has not shown much promise, and the experiments at running a pistol offense are just that, experiments.  That is not the kind of thing you want to be just trying out, just ask Auburn.  Ask Michigan how long it takes to retool an offense, although they are a bit further from having the weapons they need.  This team has promise, but too many questions will doom them, especially with all the good quarterbacks this conference has.

Likely Losses: @Oregon, Oregon State, @Washington, @Cal, USC, Arizona, Stanford

Big Win: @Arizona State

Bowl Prediction: Staying Home

Arizona State

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TEMPE, AZ - NOVEMBER 28: Kicker Thomas Weber #28 of the Arizona State Sun Devils attempts a field goal against the Arizona Wildcats during the first quarter of the college football game at Sun Devil Stadium on November 28, 2009 in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo

Non-Conference Prediction:  2-1

Conference Prediction: 1-8

Total Record Prediction: 3-9

Dennis Erickson will be up against the ropes. Unless Steven Threet starts playing like that other Michigan transfer QB, Ryan Mallett, this team will lose a lot of games 21-7 or along those lines.  The defense will likely look very good, but the offense will really struggle.  The high point of this season will be Thomas Weber returning and looking like a million bucks, but it will all be a tease.  Sorry Sun Devil fans, but your only saving grace is that you are not WSU.

Likely Losses: all but WSU

Big Win: I can’t even mention WSU and “Big Win” in the same sentence without shaking my head.

Bowl Prediction: Staying Home

Washington State

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WESTWOOD, CA - JANUARY 12: Robbie Cowgill #34 of the Washington State University Cougars looks on during pregame introductions prior to their NCAA Pac-10 game against the UCLA Bruins on January 12, 2008 at Pauley Pavilion in Westwood, California. The Bru

Non-Conference Prediction:  2-1

Conference Prediction: 0-9

Total Record Prediction: 2-10

They will probably win one this year.  Correction: they will win two.  They just won’t win one in conference yet, although they will threaten somebody, mark my words.  “In the right direction” is the phrase WSU fans need to get used to, as they will make a bowl, eventually.  The games will not be as embarrassing.  Just think of Washington’s 0-12 year, its like that.

I will spare you the Likely Losses category, its just cruel to spell it out.

Big Win: SMU (I know I said I would not mention OOC games, but with WSU, it’ll be very nice)

Bowl Prediction: Staying Home