2010 Pac10 Predictions
With the first games being played tonight, I thought it was high time to write out a Pac10 prediction. All the craziness of the off-season appears to be over now, and with Utah reportedly to join next year, this will be the last year of the Pac10. Crazy, right? With USC not able to play in a bowl game, loss of scholarships coming up, and the loss of many players to other schools as a result, its anyone’s guess who the top team to beat is now. Well, here’s mine. Granted, I am an OSU homer, so take it with a grain of salt.
Note: Non-Conference Predictions will not be done in depth.
Oregon State
1 of 10
Non-Conference Prediction: 2-1
Conference Prediction: 7-2
Total Record Prediction: 9-3
There are a lot of things to love about this team and two to hate. Ryan Katz is the new quarterback, and his lack of experience may make me look like a fool. The losses of linebacker David Pa’aluhi and defensive end Matt LaGrone make the defense a bit shakier than they already looked, and S Cameron Collins’ move to LB is nothing to be happy about. That said, natural growth from within a young front seven from last year and the depth of playing time across these players along with DC Mark Banker’s ability to groom defenses makes me think this won’t be as bad as it looks right now. My prediction puts the Beavers in the Rose Bowl for the first time since the 60s.
Likely Losses: @Arizona, @Stanford
Big Win: Civil War @home
Bowl Prediction: Rose
Oregon
2 of 10
Non-Conference Prediction: 3-0
Conference Prediction: 7-2
Total Record Prediction: 10-2
Oregon would be a national title contender were it not for Masoli and the much-publicized mistakes he and several teammates have made during the off-season. Replacing a QB is not easy, although the Ducks seem to do this better than most, finding players when they need them most. Darron Thomas will try to fill the shoes this season, but if he falters, Nate Costa, perennial backup, will make his presence known. LaMichael James and company will be just fine until the new QB gets on his feet, and the previously-maligned Oregon defense is looking very good with young talent at every position, most notably on the defensive line with DT Brandon Bair and DE Kenny Rowe.
Likely Losses: @Cal, @Oregon State
Big Win: @USC
Bowl Prediction: At-Large BCS? More likely Alamo Bowl
Stanford
3 of 10
Non-Conference Prediction: 2-1
Conference Prediction: 6-3
Total Record Prediction: 8-4
Jim Harbaugh is a great coach, and his QB Andrew Luck was ridiculously good last year, but losing a Heisman runner-up (RB Toby Gerhart) will keep this team from truly contending. WR Chris Owusu may end the season with the title of best returner and be a Pac-10 1st teamer as a WR as well, but it won’t quite be enough to shore up a defense that is still a bit, well, Stanford-like. My prediction is also that no one outside of the Farm will see the biggest cause for a downturn in rushing production is actually FB/LB Owen Marecic playing more on the defensive side of the ball this season. The kid is quite simply one of the best football players in the country, and will be a very good addition for the defense, but that said, replacing him at FB is impossible.
Likely Losses: @Oregon, Oregon State, @Washington
Big Win: USC @home
Bowl Prediction: Holiday Bowl
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USC
4 of 10
Non-Conference Prediction: 4-0
Conference Prediction: 6-3
Total Record Prediction: 10-3
With all that’s been made about USC’s punishments, this is still a very talented team, but with all the craziness, I just don’t see them able to stay concentrated enough to keep with the determined teams with something to actually achieve. Matt Barkley may be a very good QB, and the RB-by-committee is still in place, but their offense will be third in the conference, maybe fourth. The defense will be very good under Monte Kiffin, but will not be that much better than last year’s overrated unit.
Likely Losses: Oregon, @Stanford, @Oregon State
Big Win: Cal
Bowl Prediction: Staying home
Cal
5 of 10
Non-Conference Prediction: 3-0
Conference Prediction: 5-4
Total Record Prediction: 8-4
Losing a player like Jahvid Best doesn’t hurt too much when his backup is a player like Shane Vereen. It’s that simple. Tedford is a decent coach, and has loudly built a program just outside of the top-25 that seems to be missing one thing, but as to what that may be is anyone’s guess. Kevin Riley will finally be the QB he was supposed to be and have around a 60% completion rate, but other than Oregon’s typical issues dealing with Strawberry Canyon, this team doesn’t have what it takes to defeat the top dogs in the conference.
Likely Losses: @USC, @Oregon State, Stanford, @Arizona
Big Win: Oregon @home
Bowl Prediction: Sun Bowl
Washington
6 of 10
Non-Conference Prediction: 2-1
Conference Prediction: 5-4
Total Record Prediction: 7-5
Jake Locker will bring the Huskies to a bowl game in his senior season. He will be impressive and Coach Sarkisian will look very good as Locker raises his completion percentage to around 60. That said, the defense wasn’t ready last year, and after some tough losses on that side of the ball, they still won’t be very good, but RB Chris Polk will eat enough clock to keep the Huskies in several games they will lose by only a few points. Welcome, Huskies, back to relevance. Now quiet down.
Likely Losses: @Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Cal
Big Win: Stanford @home
Bowl Prediction: Emerald Bowl
Arizona
7 of 10
Non-Conference Prediction: 2-1
Conference Prediction: 4-5
Total Record Prediction: 6-6
Nick Foles is a very good QB and Arizona’s RB committee scares me more than USC’s, but with all the defensive questions, your guess is as good as mine. The non-conference game against Iowa should tell us quite a bit more about this team, but right now, I’m hesitant to put them near the top of the conference. This team is the most likely to make me look like a fool. That said, changing defensive strategies when you were at the doorsteps of the BCS just screams disappointing season. Mike Stoops will keep Arizona in the discussion, but for a lesser bowl.
Likely Losses: @Oregon, Oregon State, @Stanford, USC, Washington
Big Win: Cal
Bowl Prediction: Las Vegas Bowl
UCLA
8 of 10
Non-Conference Prediction: 2-1
Conference Prediction: 2-7
Total Record Prediction: 4-8
Rick Neuheisel can really recruit. That said, I predict he loses his job this off-season. The defense will not be as good as it was last season, and the offense will be just plain lost. QB Kevin Prince has not shown much promise, and the experiments at running a pistol offense are just that, experiments. That is not the kind of thing you want to be just trying out, just ask Auburn. Ask Michigan how long it takes to retool an offense, although they are a bit further from having the weapons they need. This team has promise, but too many questions will doom them, especially with all the good quarterbacks this conference has.
Likely Losses: @Oregon, Oregon State, @Washington, @Cal, USC, Arizona, Stanford
Big Win: @Arizona State
Bowl Prediction: Staying Home
Arizona State
9 of 10
Non-Conference Prediction: 2-1
Conference Prediction: 1-8
Total Record Prediction: 3-9
Dennis Erickson will be up against the ropes. Unless Steven Threet starts playing like that other Michigan transfer QB, Ryan Mallett, this team will lose a lot of games 21-7 or along those lines. The defense will likely look very good, but the offense will really struggle. The high point of this season will be Thomas Weber returning and looking like a million bucks, but it will all be a tease. Sorry Sun Devil fans, but your only saving grace is that you are not WSU.
Likely Losses: all but WSU
Big Win: I can’t even mention WSU and “Big Win” in the same sentence without shaking my head.
Bowl Prediction: Staying Home
Washington State
10 of 10
Non-Conference Prediction: 2-1
Conference Prediction: 0-9
Total Record Prediction: 2-10
They will probably win one this year. Correction: they will win two. They just won’t win one in conference yet, although they will threaten somebody, mark my words. “In the right direction” is the phrase WSU fans need to get used to, as they will make a bowl, eventually. The games will not be as embarrassing. Just think of Washington’s 0-12 year, its like that.
I will spare you the Likely Losses category, its just cruel to spell it out.
Big Win: SMU (I know I said I would not mention OOC games, but with WSU, it’ll be very nice)
Bowl Prediction: Staying Home
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