UFC vs. Boxing: Who Will Prevail?

Does the name Art Jimmerson ring a bell?

 

Think back about 17 years ago to the first UFC. Jimmerson had the misfortune of drawing legend Royce Gracie in his first-ever fight inside the UFC octagon. Considering he earned his living as a boxer, Jimmerson opted to wear one boxing glove. After Gracie took him down with ease, the confused Jimmerson tapped out shortly thereafter.

 

It was apparent from the get-go; boxers had no business fighting in the UFC.

 

Why is this relevant today? This Saturday night another boxer enters the UFC octagon as James “Lights Out” Toney takes on UFC veteran Randy Couture in a three-round bout. Although Toney’s and Jimmerson’s boxing exploits should never be compared, Vegas doesn’t think Toney will fare any better in the world of mixed martial arts; Sportsbook.com currently has him as a +400 underdog versus the 47-year-old Couture.

 

Does Toney have a shot against the UFC Hall of Famer? Let’s take a look.

 

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out Toney’s strategy: keep the fight off the mat and slug it out. Couture would be crazy to play into Toney’s only strength (boxing), however, so Toney will have to catch Couture right away with one solid punch or an array of blows.

 

Although Toney has 44 knockouts in his professional boxing career, he has had difficulty finishing the fight early over recent years. As a matter of fact, in his last ten fights he has only one KO or TKO. That being said, Toney is a decorated boxer and still has plenty of one-punch power compared to Couture’s MMA counterparts.

 

Also keep in mind that he will be wearing four-ounce MMA gloves instead of traditional boxing gloves.

 

You hear people say all the time in these type of matchups, “Well, if he can catch him with a lucky punch…” and it rarely happens. Well that is pretty much what happened when former boxer Ray Mercer knocked out former UFC heavyweight champ Tim Sylvia in June of 2009. The result: a nine-second, one-punch KO.

 

Then again, Sylvia made the mistake that Couture won’t—he attempted to stand with a boxer.

 

Couture isn’t known for his chin, as five of his ten MMA losses have come via KO or TKO.

 

Vegas isn’t stupid; Couture is a -600 at Sportsbook.com for a reason. They know he will attempt to get this fight on the mat as fast as possible. He will open the fight very cautious, maybe throwing a couple of kicks to Toney’s front leg. He’ll then attempt a double-leg takedown with successful results.

 

Although we don’t know Toney’s takedown defense, it is hard to imagine him being able to fend off an accomplished wrestler like Couture.

 

When Couture shoots in, Toney will have one shot to rock him, likely with an uppercut. In order for that punch to do significant damage, it will have to be landed almost perfectly.  While shooting in, Couture will be at about waist level to Toney. Essentially, Toney will need to land a split-second uppercut about a torso lower than he is accustomed to.

 

Couture will unleash some good, old-fashioned ground-and-pound. Toney will give up his back and Couture will win by rear naked choke in the first round.

 

In all, UFC 118 offers ten fights to bet on. Some of the odds are below, let me hear your winners.

 

 

UFC 118 Betting Odds (Courtesy of Sportsbook.com)

 

BJ Penn (-300) vs. Frankie Edgar (+240)

Kenny Florian (-155) vs. Gray Maynard (+125)

Nate Diaz (-200) vs. Marcus Davis (+160)

Andre Winner (-120) vs. Nick Lentz (-110)

Nick Osipczak (-140) vs. Greg Soto (+110)