UFC 118 Breakdowns and Predictions

The UFC comes to Boston, Massachusetts for the first time ever with a card that is sure to get a lot of mainstream attention. Who is the number one Lightweight in the world? Will MMA prevail over Boxing? Saturday night will tell all.

I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!

Frankie "The Answer" Edgar Vs. "The Prodigy" B.J. Penn

Key Victories :

Edgar (B.J. Penn, Sean Sherk, Tyson Griffin, Hermes Franca, Spencer Fisher, Jim Miller, Mark Bocek)

Penn (Matt Hughes, Sean Sherk, Kenny Florian, Takanori Gomi, Matt Serra, Renzo Gracie, Jens Pulver, Diego Sanchez, Joe Stevenson, Caol Uno, Din Thomas, Duane Ludwig)

Forecast :

Imagine climbing to the top of Mount Everest. On the way up, you bested the blistering cold, hurricane-like winds, and steep cliffs. You are on top of the world. Upon descent, you are greeted by a small group of spectators. One approaches you and says, "Great job! That was incredible, but we didn’t really get to see you climb. Here’s a camera. Climb it again and shoot proof that you conquered the mountain this time."

That’s basically what happened to Frankie Edgar. At UFC 112, Edgar defeated perhaps the greatest Lightweight in the history of the sport, B.J. Penn. Before the fight, people were talking about super-fights and Penn jumping weight classes. Sure, Edgar was a worthy challenger. He just wasn’t the guy to dethrone Penn. The world would soon see different.

Edgar bested Penn for five rounds in a very close unanimous decision. Some people (myself included) scored the fight for B.J. Penn. Still, I didn’t feel like it was a complete travesty when Edgar was awarded the decision. The fight was close enough for the UFC to issue an immediate rematch.

Who is the best Lightweight in the world? It’s time to find out.

Fighting out of Toms River, New Jersey, Frankie Edgar is a member of Renzo Gracie’s Combat Team. He is a purple belt in BJJ under Ricardo Almeida. His style is Wrestling, Boxing, and BJJ. In college, he wrestled at Clarion University of Pennsylvania. He qualified for nationals all four years. The win over Penn earned Edgar an ESPY nominee from ESPN for the best upset of 2010.

Born in Kailua, Hawaii, B.J. Penn is truly a gifted athlete. He earned his black belt and won the World Jiu-Jitsu Championship with only three years of training. Outside of Randy Couture, he is the only other fighter to ever hold a UFC title in two separate weight classes (Lightweight and Welterweight). He currently trains at his own school at B.J. Penn’s MMA.

Keys to Victory :

Nothing needs to change for Edgar in this bout. He needs to get after it and blend takedowns in with his boxing combinations. At UFC 112, Edgar’s octagon control and aggressiveness won him that fight. He has to insert himself in the pocket. Don’t be afraid to exchange. Penn may have the best hands in the division, but the threat of being taken down could make him hesitant in exchanges.

Edgar’s fluidity in the pocket also proved vital in the first fight. He was able to fire off combinations in range and get back out without taking significant damage.

We need to see a more aggressive Penn this time around. In the first fight, Penn seemed passive as Edgar bounced around like Zack Galifianakis at Chuck E. Cheese. He has to get after Edgar. Octagon control played a major role in his loss in the first fight. He needs to dictate the action. This fight will be decided by Penn’s ability to cut off angles and limit Edgar’s movement.

Penn is such a fantastic boxer that he may sometimes forget about his other skills. It could prove wise to implement some takedown attempts. This could shock Edgar and keep him off balance. Penn doesn’t want to limit himself to a one-dimensional attack. Edgar has a solid chin. The best chance for Penn to finish this fight is on the ground. Why not attempt to take it there?

Prediction :

Frankie Edgar deserves to be in this position. The first victory wasn’t fluke. Edgar is for real. This will be another grueling five round bout. Penn will be more aggressive and steadily impose his will. When the verdict is read, the Lightweight division will return to a state of normalcy as "The Prodigy" reclaims his throne.

Randy "The Natural" Couture Vs. James "Lights Out" Toney

Key Victories :

Couture (Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz, Vitor Belfort, Tim Sylvia, Kevin Randleman, Gabriel Gonzaga, Pedro Rizzo, Brandon Vera, Mark Coleman, Jeremy Horn)

Toney (Muay Thai Bag)

Forecast :

For years, Boxers have talked down on the sport of MMA. They called it "human cockfighting" and "street fighting". They said MMA fighters weren’t real athletes. Some even claimed they could waltz right into the sport and defeat the MMA elite. Never before has a true superstar in the world of Boxing stepped up and competed in a major MMA organization…Until now

James "Lights Out" Toney will be the first superstar of professional Boxing to put his money where his mouth is. Will Randy Couture’s lights go out in the billed "Boxing vs. MMA" bout?

Fighting out of Las Vegas, Nevada, Randy Couture trains at Xtreme Couture. His gym includes fighters like Forrest Griffin, Tyson Griffin, Gray Maynard, Martin Kampmann, and Evan Dunham. In college, Couture was a three-time NCAA Division I All-American and a two-time Division I runner-up at Oklahoma State University. He went on to become a U.S. Olympic alternate in Greco-Roman Wrestling.

At 47 years old, Couture has competed in 15 title fights (UFC record). He has held both the UFC Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight titles. In his last bout, he ended Mark Coleman’s UFC career via rear naked choke.

James Toney was born in Grand Rapids, Michigan. His impressive list of Boxing championships include the following: IBF Middleweight Champion, IBF Super Middleweight Champion, IBF Cruiserweight Champion (wait…what?), IBF Heavyweight Champion (that’s more like it), NABO Heavyweight Champion, and currently the IBA Heavyweight Champion…Phew…

Out of 72 wins, 44 have come by KO. Toney still shows pop in his punches at age 42. Don’t expect a senior citizen slugfest in this one.

Keys to Victory :

This is a fight where Couture needs to immediately go for the takedown. I’m not saying he couldn’t beat Toney on the feet. This is MMA. The stance is completely different from a natural boxing stance. In boxing, you can keep a tighter stance because you don’t have to worry about kicks or takedowns.

This alone could make striking awkward for Toney. There is more on the line than Couture testing his boxing skills. In a way, he is representing the sport of MMA.

Couture may need to explore the outside shot. All he needs to grab is one leg for a grappling struggle to ensue. This would test Toney’s takedown defense without the danger of getting caught while working for the clinch. On the ground, it should be all Couture.

The good thing about this fight is that Couture is a Greco-Roman Wrestler. Couture will probably exchange with Toney to close the distance and utilize his dirty boxing from the clinch. Toney will have a chance to catch Couture coming in. He has to make every shot count. When Couture closes the distance, Toney needs to counter with bombs.

I hope his trainer showed him the "L" stance. If Toney comes out in a traditional boxing stance, he’ll get shredded faster than Lebron James jerseys on "The Decision" night. The main thing for Toney is to stay simple. Don’t dabble into unknown waters. He should use his boxing and avoid getting pinned against the cage.

Prediction :

Boxing fanatics underestimate the complexities of MMA. There’s Boxing, Wrestling, Muay Thai, Judo, BJJ, and various other types of disciplines involved. Take Muhammad Ali for example. Ali was arguably the greatest boxer of all time. Can you imagine what it took to get to that level? Ali was student of the game who worked hard day in and day out to perfect his craft. That was just Boxing.

Try adding in a slew of other fighting styles. With so many styles, you can never truly be a master at MMA. You will always be a student.

Randy Couture isn’t going to put on boxing gloves and outbox James Toney in a Boxing match. Like Couture, Toney has dedicated his life to being the best at his craft. Still, Toney expects to stop one of the most decorated grapplers in the history of MMA with merely a few months of grappling experience.

"If you don’t pay your electric bill, the lights go out!" Couture doesn’t have to pay his electric bill because I’ll pay it for him. This freakish charade of a fight will come to a violent end when Couture dumps Toney on his head and gets the first round TKO stoppage. Remember to set the closed captioning on your TVs for the post-fight interviews. If Ed Soares isn’t there to translate, you may miss what Toney has to say.

Demian Maia Vs. Mario Miranda

Key Victories :

Maia (Chael Sonnen, Dan Miller, Nate Quarry, Jason MacDonald, Ed Herman)

Miranda (David Loiseau, Rick Story)

Forecast :

This will be Demian Maia’s first fight back since getting served up on the dance floor by Anderson Silva at UFC 112. It was a bout that garnered a lot of criticism for Silva and affection for Maia. It’ll be interesting to see how he rebounds. Meanwhile, Mario Miranda enters this bout relatively unknown to MMA fans. This is an incredible opportunity on a pay-per-view card. A win here could skyrocket Miranda’s career.

Fighting out of Sao Paulo, Brazil, Maia is a 2nd degree BJJ black belt. He has amassed the following grappling credentials: ADCC 2007 Champion, 2006 Pan American Champion, ADCC 2005 Runner-Up, 2001 CBJJ Brazilian Champion, 2000 CBJJ World Champion, and a four time Brazilian Team Champion. Eight of Maia’s twelve MMA victories have come by submission.

In the UFC, he has received four Submission of the Night honors. He currently trains at Wand Fight Team with former Pride Middleweight Champion, Wanderlei Silva.

Mario Miranda fights out of Seattle, Washington. He trains with Matt Hume at AMC Pankration. His style consists of Greco-Roman Wrestling and BJJ. The majority of his MMA victories have come by knockout. At UFC Fight Night: Florian vs. Gomi, Miranda made his UFC debut against Gerald Harris. He was stopped in the first round by TKO. At UFC 115, he returned with a TKO victory over David "The Crow" Loiseau.

Keys to Victory :

Against a grappler, Maia is unique in the fact that he doesn’t really have to worry about takedowns. He has one of the most dangerous guards in the sport. Few are suicidal enough to explore the complexities of Maia’s guard. Maia needs to approach this fight the same way he did his bout with Dan Miller at UFC 109. He needs to stay on the outside with his striking and look to setup takedowns.

Miranda is a strong Middleweight with good punching power. Maia has to be careful during exchanges. His hands have to stay up. He can’t afford getting Goku’d on like his fight with Nate Marquardt. If Miranda feels froggy, he may actually push for takedowns. If this happens, Maia should chillax, pull guard, and work some submission magic.

There’s a game kids play on the furniture when Mommy and Daddy aren’t looking. It’s called "Hot Lava". The ground is made of lava, and you must stay off the floor to avoid an agonizing death…Ok…Maybe that was a little too dramatic, but the idea of the ground being dangerous territory for Miranda isn’t. He has to stay out of Maia’s guard.

On the feet, Miranda needs to throw from the outside and catch Maia coming in. Maia has been known to let his hands drop when exchanging in the pocket. Miranda has to sniff out such mistakes and make Maia pay for them. He should also seek out opportunities to close the distance and work Maia from the clinch. In the clinch, he could utilize knees and dirty boxing.

Prediction :

The styles will make this bout tougher than it looks on paper. Maia will struggle dragging the fight to the ground, but he will do enough on the feet to get the unanimous decision.

Kenny "Ken-Flo" Florian Vs. Gray "The Bully" Maynard

Key Victories :

Florian (Takanori Gomi, Clay Guida, Joe Stevenson, Roger Huerta, Joe Lauzon, Sam Stout, Din Thomas, Dokonjonosuke Mishima)

Maynard (Frankie Edgar, Jim Miller, Roger Huerta, Nate Diaz. Rich Clementi, Dennis Siver)

Forecast :

They should change Gray Maynard’s nickname to "The Invisible" or "The Overlooked". Despite compiling a 7-0-1 UFC record, Maynard has continuously been overlooked in title opportunities. Many thought he would definitely get a shot at current UFC Lightweight Champion, Frankie Edgar.

At Fight Night 13, Maynard defeated Edgar by unanimous decision. The UFC instead opted to give an immediate rematch to former champion, B.J. Penn.

This bout against Kenny Florian will be the biggest in Maynard’s career. Florian is an upper echelon Lightweight with two title contentions under his belt. A win here should finally put Maynard in position to challenge for the title. He’s been a good sport about the whole situation thus far. That could change if he’s passed over again.

Born in Westwood, Massachusetts, Florian trains at Florian Martial Arts Center and Tristar Gym. At Tristar, he works with David Loiseau and UFC Welterweight Champion, Georges St. Pierre. Florian was a soccer standout before venturing into MMA. He played NCAA Division I Soccer while attending Boston College.

His big break in MMA came through the first TUF season where he competed as a Middleweight. In the finals, he was defeated by Diego Sanchez. After the show, Florian went on to become one of the best Lightweights in the world. He recently defeated Takanori Gomi by rear naked choke at UFC Fight Night: Florian vs. Gomi.

Fighting out of Las Vegas, Nevada, Gray Maynard is a Wrestler and Boxer. He trains at Xtreme Couture with Randy Couture, Forrest Griffin, Tyson Griffin, and Evan Dunham. In college, Maynard wrestled alongside Rashad Evans at Michigan State University. When he graduated, he was listed as eleventh all-time in MSU history with 106 wins and seventh with 26 falls.

Maynard was also on the TUF reality show (isn’t everyone these days?). In the TUF 5 semifinals, he was defeated by Nate Diaz. Maynard defeated Diaz in a rematch at UFC Fight Night 20.

Keys to Victory :

Florian’s success will be determined by how long he can stay off his back. He needs to keep the fight standing and use his Muay Thai to pick Maynard apart. Outside of winging haymakers, Maynard doesn’t have much to offer on the feet. Florian will have to be careful throwing kicks. Maynard is a solid wrestler who will be looking for any opportunity to take the fight to the ground.

If taken down, Florian has to constantly look for sweeps, submissions, and chances to scramble. This will be a true test to his wrestling defense since his loss to Sean Sherk. Florian’s ability to defend the shot will determine the outcome of this fight.

Maynard needs to continue to do what he’s been doing. He needs to seek out takedowns and grind out a victory. Florian will be the best striker Maynard has faced in the UFC. Now isn’t the time to try to be "exciting". Maynard needs to use his boxing to setup his shots. He will have to be relentless. Florian won’t go down easy. He will likely stuff a takedown or two. Maynard has to stay composed and stick with the gameplan.

In Florian’s guard, Maynard has to watch out for submissions. Florian is a black belt in BJJ with a dangerous guard. The problems don’t end with submissions. Florian also has sharp elbows from bottom. His elbows can quickly turn a bout into a CSI crime scene. Maynard needs to be cautious in all areas.

Prediction :

This will be a very technical fight. I expect a more cautious Florian in respect to Maynard’s wrestling ability. Maynard’s limited abilities on the feet will make disguising his takedowns hard in this bout. Florian will get the best of the exchanges and defend the majority of the takedowns.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Maynard takes a round. He’s a strong wrestler with good top control. In the end, the show will ultimately belong to Florian as he cruises to a unanimous decision.

Nate Diaz Vs. Marcus Davis

Key Victories :

Diaz (Kurt Pellegrino, Josh Neer, Melvin Guillard, Manvel Gamburyan, Rory Markham)

Davis (Chris Lytle, Paul Taylor, Paul Kelly, Pete Spratt)

Forecast :

This bout will mark Nate Diaz’s first back since the WWE-like brawl at Strikeforce: Nashville. Marcus Davis better be careful. If Nate is in trouble, Nick Diaz could come floating down from the rafters with a baseball bat.

Fighting out of Stockton, California, Nate Diaz is a brown belt in BJJ. He trains at Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu alongside Nick Diaz (brother), Jake Shields, and Gilbert Melendez. In June 2007, Diaz defeated Manvel Gamburyan to become the winner of TUF Season 5. He recently decided to jump to Welterweight after dropping three of his last four Lightweight bouts.

At UFC 111, Diaz was scheduled to make his Welterweight debut against Rory Markham. When Markham failed to make weight, the bout was instead listed at Middleweight. This bout will truly be his Welterweight debut. In the Markham bout, Diaz won by first round TKO stoppage.

Marcus Davis fights out of Houlton, Maine. His style consists of Boxing and BJJ. Training at Team Sityodtong, he is surrounded by guys like Patrick Cote, Jorge Rivera, and Stephan Bonnar. Outside of MMA, Davis has compiled a professional Boxing record of 17-1-2. He rebounded from consecutive losses at UFC 113 when he TKO’d Jonathan Goulet in the second round.

Keys to Victory :

Diaz’s reach will be a big advantage coming into this bout. He needs to pepper Davis with outside punches while slowly closing the distance. The ultimate objective is to force Davis into the cage. From close range, Diaz could continue to work his boxing or utilize the clinch. Davis seemed completely lost in Ben Saunders’s clinch at UFC 106.

The clinch would open up a lot of opportunities for Diaz in this bout. He could work knees, dirty boxing, and takedowns. Davis has knockout power. Diaz will have to be smart in the exchanges to avoid getting clipped.

Davis has to use more foot movement in this bout as compared to previous ones. He can’t allow Diaz to push the action and trap him against the fence. The Diaz brothers are notorious for throwing a lot of punches and cutting off angles. Davis needs to be aggressive. Work leg kicks and feints to setup the power hand.

If possible, he should avoid the ground. Diaz is very crafty in his BJJ. Davis doesn’t possess the grappling acumen to hang with Diaz in that territory. I hope Davis has been working on his head movement.

Prediction :

Look for Diaz to work Davis on the feet. Davis will find himself pressed against the cage putting forth more defense than offense. Diaz will continue to hammer away with a gazillion punches until the ref is forced to step in in the second round. Some call Davis "The Celtic Warrior". Well, I only know one "Celtic Warrior"...and he’s the WWE champion, Sheamus!

Official Picks

B.J. Penn By Unanimous Decision

Randy Couture By Round 1 TKO Stoppage

Demian Maia By Unanimous Decision

Kenny Florian By Unanimous Decision

Nate Diaz By Round 2 TKO Stoppage