Fantasy Football: Which NFL Receiver Should You Take First In The Draft?
Fantasy football often presents us with more to think about than many bargain for when they first get their feet wet.
Position scarcity, player ranks, statistical projections, injury reports, and who to take first overall in the draft, are just some of the questions needed to be answered, and that’s after you decide on a league, format, and a super cool name to represent yourself like A Boy Named Suh or My Johnson’s In My Calvin.
But crazy names and an over abundance of knowledge are just parts of the puzzle. You also have to make the right decision when first selecting each position. Now, while there is no guarantee your selection will be the best one, you can try and get as close as possible.
So let’s take a quick look at who could be the best number one selection at WR in 2010.
Quick Note: All of these receivers are currently ranked in my Top Ten. You can see the complete rankings of all the receivers and more by visiting my 2010 WR Rankings page.
10. Miles Austin: Dallas
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Mock drafts and rankings aside, I am still hearing whispers of a couple of folks thinking Miles Austin is who they are going after as their first WR selection…sometimes actual word of mouth is better than mock trending.
While I can agree that Austin is a top 10 receiver, I cannot justify taking him as the number one receiver overall.
Austin has to show that 2009 wasn’t a fluke, and that he can build upon what was a great season before he reaches that level.
9. Calvin Johnson: Detroit
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Calvin Johnson is a beast of a receiver, the primary target for QB Matthew Stafford, and has all the makings of being a top performing receiver in 2010.
But injuries, and a second year QB kind makes me wonder if going off the boards as the number one receiver is worth the pick. In the end, I personally could stand to pass him by for a better more reliable receiver if I am to be the first to yank one off the board.
8. Brandon Marshall: Miami
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Maybe if he was in Denver yes, but in Miami, no! Look it isn’t a question of whether or not Brandon Marshall will be an effective receiver, but rather, will he be the only receiver?
Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess are not exactly what I would call significantly threatening receivers, and when there is a lack of complimentary guys on your team, the primary receiver just isn’t going to get as many opportunistic chances, mainly due to the type of coverage he will face.
Great pick for both league formats, but not as the first receiver to go off the board.
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7. Roddy White: Atlanta
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Roddy White, at times, was as explosive as a receiver can be. But at other times, he was far too inconsistent to really think of him as a potential overall number one WR.
Don’t get me wrong, I can still see the guy grabbing 80 balls for at least 1,000-plus yards and 10 TDs, but I don’t see that production going much higher, which means he may not be the best number one selection at WR.
There are significant injury reports coming out of the NFL almost daily this year, and even Atlanta has been hit, but if White becomes a primary man, he still won’t be worth a number one WR selection.
6. DeSean Jackson: Philadelphia
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Coming in at number six is DeSean Jackson, who is one of the most electrifying receivers to wear an Eagles jersey in a long time, but is he worth being the first WR to go off the boards?
No!
Jackson may start off slow, only because as Kevin Kolb acclimates himself into the season, he will probably target TE Brent Celek and his running backs a bit more than usual, which could cut into the amount of targets in the early goings.
Jackson will wind up being a top 10 receiver, but not the guy who you should take as the first receiver off the boards. Now, if you had back to back selections……
Intermission
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Here’s the part where things get sticky. Anyone of these WRs could be a quality first selection, but which one is almost entirely impossible to predict. So we’ll talk in percentages and speculation.
The last five remaining WRs: Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, and Larry Fitzgerald, are all WRs that lead the WR rankings. Anyone of these players could conceivably be the first WR selected off the boards.
So let us continue with the best of the best.
5. Larry Fitzgerald: Arizona
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Larry Fitzgerald is a monster. Fitz is a guy who will dominate the playing field on every single down, but he is the bearer of a couple of things that could cut into his production.
Last year, Fitz was double-covered almost exclusively, and Kurt Warner already admitted he was reluctant to go deep with him as much as he wanted to, so having a rookie QB (well he’s basically a rookie) isn’t necessarily going improve his situation.
I think he has a 25 percent chance of going off the board as the first WR, nothing more.
4. Randy Moss: New England
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Randy Moss has always been known for making the types of catches that nobody else in the NFL can make. He has also been known to be a TD producing machine.
But as long a Wes Welker is in town, how affordable is Moss as the first selected WR off the boards?
I personally like Moss as the first WR to go in either format, but that’s just my opinion—my advice would be to pass on him as the first WR selected. Remember, there are still three other players who may outperform him.
Thirty-eight percent chance of going as the first WR off the boards, but between you and me, if you are in a PPR league, you can get more bang for your buck if you hold out for Welker.
3. Reggie Wayne: Indianapolis
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After Wes Welker, it was a heated competition for catches, yards, and scores with Reggie Wayne being one of the four players in that race.
One catch and one touchdown separated Wayne, Dallas Clark, Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall in the AFC, and with that said, a lot of people wonder if taking Wayne as the first WR is the right choice.
Well, he does play in Indianapolis with Peyton Manning, and he does have significant value in both PPR and Standard leagues, so why not right?
How about Clark, Anthony Gonzalez, Pierre Garcon, and Austin Collie, as well as the willingness of the Colts to run more in 2010?
I can see Wayne getting 95 balls for about 1,100 yards and 10 TDs, but nothing more, and I believe he has a 50/50 chance of being the first WR off the boards.
2. Andre Johnson: Houston
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It is probably taboo to mention Andre Johnson as anything other than the end-all, be-all of WRs in the league, but I was never one to follow the crowd just for the sake of it.
This guy had over 1,500 yards, 10 scores, and 100-plus catches in 2009, but I don’t think he is the best option as the number one WR to go off the boards.
I don’t think defenses are going to give him much real estate on the crossing routes, and I don’t think there will be too many times where he will be matched one-on-one when sprinting down the field for 30.
He’s one of the best, if not the best, and stands with a 90.5 percent chance of going as the first WR, but I would much prefer…
1. Greg Jennings: Green Bay
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Greg Jennings raked in 63 catches for 1,113 yards (16.4 avg) with four TDs, and that was with more of the work going to Donald Driver, a makeshift O-line, and an Aaron Rodgers who was in his first full year.
But that was then and this is now.
Driver will see a reduction in his workload, which you can read all about here if you’d like, the offensive line is healthy and back to 100 percent—very scary stuff—and Rodgers has a year under him, and is ready to exceed his 2009 numbers.
Jennings is the primary receiver in Green Bay for the first time in his career, and makes for a wonderful selection for PPR leaguers, and Standard leaguers. Selecting him as the first WR not only is a sound decision, but also sets you up for a ton of strategic avenues to explore later on in your draft, which is why I think he should be the number one receiver to be taken.
But hey, that’s just my opinion, what about you guys? Leave a comment below and let me know what you all think.
Please keep in mind that, while I understand that more than one receiver makes up a team, and you can cleverly build a team with the right personnel, I am simply looking at who I feel are the top 10 receivers in the draft, who could wind up being the best WR to go first off the board, and nothing more. But we can all chime in on how a great team could be built with the myriad of players out there below.
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