Tiger Woods Won't Pass Jack Nicklaus: How His Inevitable Failure Unfolds

What used to be such a sure thing is not quite so certain anymore. Tiger Woods may not be able to lay claim to his ultimate goal and Jack Nicklaus may very well be able to call his record 18 Major Championships safe for the first time in a while.

Remember, Tiger is still four short of even tying the Golden Bear.

Ever since his famous “hello world” in August 1996, the golfer from Windemere, Florida has owned the golf scene. As soon as he won the Las Vegas Invitational during his rookie season in a playoff against Davis Love III, sports pundits began thrusting the title of "potentially the greatest ever" upon him.

His record setting 1997 Masters title only helped that case. Even though it was his first Major Championship, the fact that he won by 12 strokes immediately made Nicklaus’ record breakable in many minds.

Then he just kept winning.

He completed the Tiger Slam in 2000-2001 when he held all four Major Championship trophies at the same time.

As if that wasn’t enough, fast forward to 2008.

With 13 Major Championships already under his belt, Tiger won the U.S. Open in a playoff over Rocco Mediate on a leg that was literally broken. The "greatest ever" cries had never gone away, but they only grew louder in the wake of this performance.

The question had become “How many will he beat Jack Nicklaus by?” instead of “Will he beat Jack Nicklaus?”

Sure, concerns were voiced over his health and impending knee surgery, but they were quelled when he returned to win six PGA Tour titles in 2009.

Then all hell broke lose: a never-ending sex scandal, an impending divorce from his wife, and the public reversal of opinion. The 14-time Major Championship winner suddenly went from being a public hero, role-model, and most loved athlete to the centerpiece of incessant controversy.

Since then, the results have not exactly been Tiger-like.

A tie for fourth at the Masters, a missed cut at the Quail Hollow Championship, a withdrawal at the Players Championship, a tie for 19^th at the Memorial Tournament, a tie for fourth at the U.S. Open, a tie for 46^th at the AT&T National, and a tie for 23^rd at the British Open.

This week Eldrick finished +18, in a tie for 78^th at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational; the field only consisted of 80 players. This is a tournament where he has historically experienced great success, but that success eluded him this week just like the bottom of the cup did. 

If you were asked to guess whose tournament record that was from this year, Tiger Woods would probably not jump to mind.

Simply put, Tiger has lost his edge.

The reality of the situation is that he is just not that much more physically talented than the rest of the golfers on the PGA Tour. He just doesn’t have the same advantage he used to own.

The reason for Tiger's dominance was his mental game. His father used to do everything possible to shake his concentration, even dropping a bag of clubs directly in front of him during his backswing. They had a codeword that Tiger could use if he ever wanted the torture to stop, but he never used it.

As a result of this training, Tiger had by far the best mental game in professional golf. He possessed the killer instinct, as symbolized by his red shirt on Sundays.

When he had a lead, the tournament’s trophy might as well have been handed to him. The rest of the field feared him.

That is no longer the case. Players don’t quiver when they see his name listed amongst the field. Some even wear red on Sundays, a decision that would have broken an unwritten rule in the past. Unheralded players like Y.E. Yang have faced the challenge of going head-to-head with Tiger and come out on top.

Too many things are going against Tiger for him to surpass Nicklaus.

Every single move he makes is scrutinized and he’s being forced to play with less emotion than he previously did. The young guns on the PGA Tour are only getting better and taking titles away from him.

Players aren’t intimidated by him.

Moreover, golf is undergoing another cyclical change. Long ago, there was a premium placed on accuracy because the courses were shorter, but then players started trying to hit the ball further. So courses became longer to accommodate for the change in playing style.

Now instead of becoming even longer, many courses are implementing thicker rough and narrower fairways—this does not suit Tiger’s game.

Due to his extraordinary power but lack of accuracy with the woods in his bag, Tiger has lost the advantage given to him because of the course changes. Until he learns to hit the ball with the same accuracy that many amateur golfers have, he will struggle.

So assuming that Tiger Woods improves his game again and straightens out his mental state, he would still have to win five more Major Championships to surpass the record.

Tiger is currently 34 years old, so let’s say that his prime endures until he’s 40 years old. This gives him 21 shots at Major Championships and he has to win five of those. Considering he’s won 14 Major titles in 59 attempts during the best years of his career, the feat seems unlikely.

He has won four Masters titles in his 15 attempts, so if we prorate this to the five more shots he’ll have before he’s 40, it gives him either one or two more wins. Because of his advancing age, let’s round down and give him one more win.

This leaves him needing four more Major titles.

We also have the PGA Championship.

His four victories have come twice at Medinah Country Club, once at Southern Hills Country Club, and once at Valhalla Country Club. Through 2016, only Valhalla is listed as a future site of the Major Championship, so let’s assume he wins that tournament but no others.

This leaves him needing three more Major titles.

In the Open Championship, Tiger has won three times—twice at St. Andrews and once at Royal Liverpool Golf Club. Without any runner-up finishes and only four top-10 performances when he didn’t win, it seems as though Tiger has to play these courses to triumph. Through 2014, only Royal Liverpool is on the docket, so let’s assume he wins there.

This leaves him needing two more Major titles.

The U.S. Open Championship is the only tourney and the chances don’t look so good.

Tiger Woods has won at Torrey Pines Golf Course, Bethpage State Park, and Pebble Beach Golf Links. The tournament is simply not made for him anymore with his diminished accuracy and the ever-growing rough. Unless he summons up some magic at Pebble in 2019, the chances of winning here are not so good.

Even if we say he manages to win one, this still leaves him short of Jack Nicklaus in his quest for the record.

Simply put, Tiger will not become the most successful Major Championship winner of all time.

His skills are not that much better than the rest of the field anymore. His mental game has fallen apart and doesn’t look to reach the level it was once at for quite some time. And the rest of the field is not quite as scared of him as they once were.

If this week at Bridgestone was any indication, it could be a while before Tiger even wins again, much less wins a Major Championship.

Jack Nicklaus, you can finally exhale.