Fantasy Favreball: Does Anybody Win?

Note: Perhaps it was a sign from above that while creating this piece lightning struck, the power went out, and I lost the article.

En garde! Brett Favre is fencing again.

What side he lands on depends which media report you believe. The swarm of NFL insiders are all over it. And by all over it I mean their sources say text messages indicate he's retiring. Did I say retiring? I'm sorry, what I meant to say is he will play if he's healthy. What's that? He's going to be a guest singer on Glee? He does have that cameo in "There's Something About Mary" to work with.

Umm, it's August, Brett. It's time to stop with the Southern charm sideshow. You are a man! You are 40! However, this act reeks of teenage stubbornness.

This isn't Hollywood, Brett. This isn't deciding between buying a high-definition television or not. Do you want to play football or retire to your 400-acre Xanadu and snuggle with your Rosebud down in Mississippi? I'm sure Dr. James Andrews is available on Line Two—24 hours a day if you need him. You are stunting the growth of your team by keeping quiet. The Minnesota Vikings can't wait forever.

But they will.

From a purely statistical viewpoint Minnesota has reason to be patient. If his ankle is sturdy enough, No. 4 should have little reason to hang 'em up now considering he's coming off the best statistical season of his career.

Last year Favre threw 33 touchdowns compared to only seven interceptions. His 2009 QB rating of 107.2 crushed his previous career high. The computers believe the Minnesota Vikings are Super Bowl contenders with a healthy Favre behind center. However, if he chooses to kick back in some Wranglers come Sundays this fall, that's where Whatifsports.com answers the call.

Following yesterday's media blitz that Favre would indeed retire, (only for reports to surface today that say he hasn't made up his mind) Whatifsports.com's NFL simulation engine went to work. We reset the Vikings' depth charts and simulated Minnesota's 2010 regular season to see how much of an impact Favre's absence would truly have on the team's success.

Life Without Favre
QB	W	L	Pass Yards	TDs	INTs
Brett Favre	11	5	4070	25	11
Tarvaris Jackson	9	7	3333	17	10
Sage Rosenfels	9	7	3491	19	15

More Action Jackson

Remember when you were a kid, and your mom would take you into a store and pinch the back of your arm before instructing you, "Don't touch anything."

I wonder if that's how Tarvaris Jackson feels right now. He's so close to snatching the keys to the Porsche, but Favre, by keeping quiet, is pinching the back of Jackson's arm and saying, "Don't touch anything." After all, this is Favre's team until the ol' gunslinger retires for the 84th time.

Jackson appeared in 12 games during the 2007 season and nine games in 2008 before Favre took over last season. His 294 passing attempts in 2007 ranked towards the bottom for starting quarterbacks that season. His role was mainly to turn and hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson.

It's no mystery that if Jackson were to take over for Favre in 2010, the Vikings' record would suffer. Profound, I know. The computers believe Minnesota will drop two games to 9-7 with Jackson at quarterback. Jackson will throw for over 600 fewer yards and eight fewer touchdowns than Favre will.

However, the most alarming stat from the computer simulation is that at 9-7, the Vikings will not make the playoffs.

One minute it looked as if Sage Rosenfels was going to be a hero in Houston. Then the quarterback was flipped over and fumbled the football only to find himself a season later holding a clipboard in Minnesota. And yet, Rosenfels still has a crack at the starting gig if Favre decides to retire.

The third-stringer did not play in a game for the Vikings in 2009. As a member of the Texans he played in six games in 2008 and nine games in 2007 in which he threw 15 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions.

If the former Iowa State Cyclone gets the nod and runs the Vikings' offense this season, you will see more passing yards, more touchdowns, and more interceptions thrown compared to Jackson. What you won't see is Week 18, 19, 20, or 21. Because as with Jackson, the computers believe Rosenfels can only muster up a 9-7 record.

Sidney Rice's 2010 Stats
QB	REC	REC Yards	TDs
Brett Favre	85	1369	8
Tarvaris Jackson	75	1215	6
Sage Rosenfels	78	1257	6

You're Leaving Me?

If you played fantasy football in 2009, you know about Sidney Rice. The Minnesota Vikings deep threat became a household name once Favre came to town. Rice recorded 83 receptions for over 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns. Before all the Favre Retirement 3.0 talk, Rice was considered a top-five fantasy wide receiver this season.

As you can see, even with Favre out of the picture, Rice will still rack up 1,000-plus yards this season, but the computers believe his touches in the end zone will take a hit by two.

It will be Adrian Peterson benefiting the most from Favre's departure, as the bulldozer will increase his production by over 100 yards if Favre does not return. He is projected to gain 1,444 rushing yards this season but will push that output to over 1,600 rushing yards if Tarvaris or Sage is the quarterback in Minnesota.

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