College Football: Which Big Ten Team Will Set the Table for a BCS Bid?

The usual recipe for getting an invitation to play in a BCS game or in one of the premier postseason bowl games calls for your favorite Big Ten squad to win their four non-conference games on their schedule, putting themselves into position to receive a favorable bid.  The recipe worked well for Wisconsin (Champs Sports), Penn State (Florida Citrus) and Iowa (Orange) last year.  

Of course, an earlier season non-conference loss does not mean that you can’t receive a BCS bid to the Rose Bowl, as Ohio State fans found out last year.

The 2010 season is just around the corner as the season begins on September 2nd.     The question on the minds of many Big Ten Football fans is whether their team has the goods to win all four of their non-conference games to set the table for a possible BCS bid.  Below is a quick overview of each Big Ten team’s schedule as well as a prediction for the team going undefeated during the non-conference portion of their respective schedule.  The teams are listed in reverse order of their probability for winning their four non-conference games.

Purdue

9/4                   @ Notre Dame

9/11                  Western Illinois

9/18                 Ball State

9/25                 Toledo

Purdue starts the season with a bang as they head into South Bend to play Notre Dame.  The schedule for the Boilermakers looks very promising because with an upset over Notre Dame, Purdue could have a good shot of being 4-0 before the Big Ten season begins.  

Purdue, who failed to become bowl game eligible last year, drew a favorable schedule in that they avoid playing both Iowa and Penn State this season.  Unfortunately, a knee injury to starting running back Ralph Bolden has put a damper on expectations in West Lafayette.

Prediction

Transfer Robert Marve should bring excitement to Purdue if his offensive line, which returns only two starters, can mature quickly and give him time.  The Boilermakers likely will start Big Ten play at 2-2 as they get their house in order with life after Bolden and begin to gel on the offensive line.

Illinois

9/4                   Missouri (Neutral Site - St. Louis, Missouri)

9/11                  Southern Illinois 

9/18                 Northern Illinois

12/3                  @ Fresno State

In Champaign, the Fighting Illini might be repeating the adage—what does not break you, makes you stronger. 

The Illini finished 3-9 in a very disappointing year. The prospects of a winning season and a bowl trip this season begin with a steep uphill climb as Illinois plays three solid out of conference opponents who all finished with winning records last year.  

The Illini open the 2010 season with Missouri who soundly beat the Illini last year 37-9.  The end of the season out of conference game on the road against Fresno State also promises to be no walk in the park as the Bulldogs have become a very good program.

Prediction  

Illinois will likely be underdogs to Missouri and Fresno State and an upset against Southern Illinois and Northern Illinois is not completely out of the question.  Illinois won’t run the table and would be very happy going 3-1 out of conference, however I expect the Illini to split their non-conference schedule.

Minnesota

9/2                   @ Middle Tennessee

9/11                  South Dakota

9/18                 USC

9/25                 Northern Illinois

The Gophers are one of only two teams in the Big Ten to play its entire non-conference schedule against teams that finished last season with .500 or better winning records.  Not to mention, no team loses more starters on both sides of the ball than the Minnesota Gophers.   

However, Coach Tim Brewster is confident that the players he has recruited will step in and play at a high level—if Coach Brew’s crew doesn’t play well it could be the last curtain call for the Coach in the Twin Cities.

Prediction

Minnesota hopefully finds a way to get to three wins before the Big Ten season starts in October against Northwestern.   The wins might not be pretty for the Gophers, but Minnesota fans should have an enjoyable September before things get more difficult during conference play.

Penn State

9/4                   Youngstown State

9/11                  @ Alabama

9/18                 Kent State

9/25                 Temple

The detractors of the Nittany Lions program in the past have generally relied on the non-conference schedule to argue that Penn State is not worthy of their ranking in the polls. 

This year, if Penn State runs the table of their non-conference schedule no one will be questioning their ranking as a team as Penn State faces defending BCS Champion Alabama in Tuscaloosa.   If the Nittany Lions make it to a BCS Bowl game, Penn State will definitely have earned the invitation as they face both Iowa and Ohio State on the road.

Prediction  

Penn State will be 3-1 going into October as Alabama has a solid football capable of repeating as National Champions.  If Joe Pa does pull off the upset, it will be a nice cherry on top of a Hall of Fame career.

Michigan

9/4                   Connecticut

9/11                  @ Notre Dame

9/18                 Massachusetts

9/25                 Bowling Green

Coach Rich Rodriquez is on the hot seat after posting back to back losing seasons in Ann Arbor.  The first two games of this season may go a long way in determining if Coach Rodriquez gets to see the end of his third season at Michigan. 

Connecticut is a program on the rise and will likely give Michigan all it can handle.  The following week, Michigan travels to the hostile environment of South Bend to take on Notre Dame.  

An 0-2 start for the Wolverines is not out of the question for Michigan, which means the seat under Coach Rodriquez is getting hotter in Ann Arbor.  Of course, a 4-0 start in Ann Arbor will have the fans ditching their pitch forks to jump on the bandwagon.

Prediction

Michigan should be positioned well to be at least 3-1 going into October as Coach Rodriquez has the players in place to run his style of offense and his defensive unit returns seven starters.  The Rodriquez era in Michigan currently has the feel of the Callahan era at Nebraska so a 4-0 start seems overly optimistic.

Northwestern

9/4                   @ Vanderbilt

9/11                  Illinois State

9/18                 @ Rice

9/25                 Central Michigan

The Northwestern Wildcats have lost their best player on both sides of the ball as QB Mike Kafka and DE Corey Wootton have gone to the NFL, so no one could fault the boys from Evanston if they did not load up on tough non-conference foes.  Central Michigan should be an interesting game for the Wildcats on September 25 and should give Northwestern fans a glimpse of the whether they will be watching their favorite squad play in a bowl game.

Prediction  

Dan Persa saw some playing time at Quarterback last year for the Wildcats and played very well in leading Northwestern in their upset win over Iowa in Iowa City last year. 

The offensive line returns several players and should be the anchor for the team.  Northwestern has been pretty consistent under Coach Pat Fitzgerald and expect the trend to continue, as the Wildcats end September with a 3-1 record.

Michigan State

9/4                   Western Michigan

9/11                  Florida Atlantic (Game played at a neutral site)

9/18                 Notre Dame

9/25                 Northern Colorado

The Spartans underachieved last year and are likely looking for redemption this season.

The 2010 non-conference schedule is comprised of three cupcakes and Notre Dame, which should give the Spartans an opportunity to chalk up some easy victories before the start of the Big Ten season.  The game against the Fighting Irish on September 18 should give fans some insight as to whether the Spartans are for real this year—of course, the first four games against the Spartans are at home.

Prediction  

The key to a 4-0 start is whether the Spartans can beat Notre Dame at home on September 18.  The experience of Michigan State Quarterback Kirk Cousins and his receiving corps should be the difference between the Spartans and the Fighting Irish when the two teams meet in East Lansing.  Michigan State should be poised for a bowl bid at 4-0 going into October.

Indiana

9/2                   Towson

9/18                 @ Western Kentucky 

9/25                 Akron

10/16                Arkansas State

The Hoosiers failed to become bowl eligible last year winning only four games.  This year, Indiana should have a decent opportunity to become bowl eligible as their four non-conference opponents last year were a combined 9-38.  

Indiana’s only road non-conference in 2011 is against the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky, who failed to win a single game last year.  If Indiana can take care of business against their non-conference opponents, the Hoosiers just might find themselves back in a bowl game.

Prediction 

Expect Indiana to start the year off right as QB Ben Chappel is an experienced and solid passer who has outstanding wide receivers.  Indiana should be able to put 21 or more points on the board against their non-conference opponents, and their defense should be able to finish off the job.  Expect the Hoosiers to pick up four non-conference wins this year—once Big Ten season begins the wins will be more difficult to achieve.

Iowa

9/4                   Eastern Illinois

9/11                  Iowa State

9/18                 @ Arizona

9/25                 Ball State

Iowa has a chance to crash the BCS Championship game if the chips fall the right way for Coach Ferentz and the Hawkeyes.   

The first three games of the season will pose challenges for Iowa. They play Eastern Illinois, who won eight games last year, bitter in-state rival Iowa State, and Arizona who finished the regular season as the 20^th ranked team in the last BCS poll. 

The last game in September against Ball State should provide the Hawkeyes with the opportunity to get healthy and give every player some playing time before the start of Big Ten play.

Prediction 

The Hawkeyes rarely blow teams out, but two of their more convincing wins last year came against their two toughest non-conference opponents this year—Iowa State and Arizona.  Both teams will be looking for some revenge, therefore a loss in September is not out of the question.  Hawkeye fans should expect some payback from the Cyclones and former Iowa Mike Stoops Wildcats but in the end, the Hawkeyes should survive a couple of close calls to get to 4-0.

Ohio State

9/4                   Marshall

9/11                  Miami (Florida)

9/18                 Ohio

9/25                 Eastern Michigan

The Buckeyes have a non-conference schedule befitting a team that has aspirations of winning the BCS Championship.  Three games which should not pose most of a challenge along with one game against a top 15 team in which the Buckeyes can demonstrate to the pollsters that they are worthy of their high preseason ranking.   If there is a knock on the Buckeyes schedule is that they do not leave friendly Columbus in September.

Prediction  

The Buckeyes have the look of a team that is ready to compete for a National Championship.  Ohio State must avoid the temptation of underestimating the Hurricanes in order to avoid the upset at home on September 11th.  The Buckeyes should, however, be standing high and mighty in the rankings at 4-0 beginning in October.

Wisconsin

9/4                   @UNLV

9/11                  San Jose State

9/18                 Arizona State

9/25                 Austin Peay

The Badgers could be the surprise team in the Big Ten that makes an unexpected run for the BCS Championship game.  Wisconsin has one of the most experienced offensive lines in the conference and their non-conference schedule should allow the Badger coaching staff an opportunity to get everyone plenty of playing time before the Big Ten schedule begins.  

Prediction  

The Badgers have arguably the best offense in the Big Ten conference as they return QB Scott Tolzien, WR Nick Toon and the Big Ten’s leading rusher in RB John Clay.   None of the teams on their non-conference schedule are particularly stout on the defensive side of the ball, so the Badgers should roll through their non-conference schedule and get to a 4-0 record.