WHY JAMES TONEY WILL KNOCK OUT RANDY COUTURE

The mma faithful are unanimous: top ten heavyweight boxer, James Toney, will fall to Randy Couture! “He ain’t got a chance,” they say.  “Poor, old, world-class heavyweight boxer; he’s outclassed and overmatched.”  Here’s my response: what world are you living in? Listed below are my top reasons why Toney will knock out Randy Couture, and why Randy is helpless to stop it!

Let’s start with the fact that in the real world, Randy Couture could not get a license to box James Toney. In the real world, such a bout – a boxing match – would be viewed as pugilistic murder. A guy who has not fought a single, professional boxing match, going up against a world-class heavyweight fighter.  Randy wouldn’t last two, three minute rounds. And he probably wouldn’t last one. And that’s not in any way a criticism. Only a fool would step into the ring with a pro boxer without having an extensive amateur boxing background and professional training.  In spite of this obvious fact, mma fans sincerely believe that James Toney doesn’t have a chance against Randy! A guy with dynamite in his fists squaring off against a guy who isn’t a pro fighter! Take a step back – the whole idea is crazy! Yet, mma fans insist Toney doesn’t have a chance! Why is this?

When mma began, and fighters in different disciplines squared off against one another, pure strikers were at a disadvantage. The problem with this argument is that mma itself has evolved tremendously and bears no resemblance to the sport in the early 90’s. There are no longer any purists who practice only one form of martial arts. Today’s competitors generally bring one martial arts specialty into the octagon, and work on learning other skills to supplement their specialty.

There is absolutely no reason why someone who hits well like Toney, can’t come into this sport and learn the defensive skills needed to avoid being taken down. Mma fans can name any number of guys who fight on their feet, and prefer not to go to the mat. For Toney to make this work, he must focus on avoiding the take down and setting up his man for hard strikes. Why is this so impossible?   

When Brock Lesnar decided to get involved in mma, his primary skill set consisted of his college and pro wrestling backgrounds. This is why Brock was written off when he made his debut. How could a guy with a mere college wrestling background compete against mixed martial artists skilled in wrestling, jiu jitsu, boxing, etc.? Does anyone out there remember this? Hello? Wasn’t this the reason Brock was mocked for thinking he could get into the octagon with the UFC’s best?     

            But as I have written before, the brilliance of Brock Lesnar – yes, the brilliance of Brock Lesnar – is that when he made up his mind to do mma, he hired the best team, he committed himself to bringing up his weaknesses, and most importantly, he brought in people to develop a strategy to beat the man in front of him. Brock did not set out to become the best mixed martial artist; Brock set out to beat the man in front of him. There is a difference. And it worked!   

            James Toney has the money to bring in the talent to teach him the skills he needs in order to beat Randy Couture. Read that again: James Toney has the MONEY to bring in the talent to teach him what he needs in order to beat the man in front of him. Not to try to be the best mixed martial artist. To beat the man in front of him! It worked for Brock and it can work for James Toney.

            One of the advantages Brock enjoyed when he started in mma was that there was no footage of him fighting. Nothing to go on. When Heath Herring faced him, he had no idea what Brock might do. On the other hand, there is extensive footage of Herring, Frank Mir, and Randy Couture. Brock’s team was able to develop strategies that worked against these men even though Brock was arguably not as well rounded in martial arts because they had a superb athlete in Brock who could execute those strategies.

We all know there is plenty of footage available of Randy. I won’t say he is predictable – that would be very unfair. But you can catalog his strengths by watching film on him, and anticipate what he is likely to do.

            For example, for years we have heard that Randy is great at fighting against the cage and dirty boxing is one of his strengths. But what passes for dirty boxing in mma is a far cry from real “dirty boxing”. I have watched Muhammad Ali’s fights for years. He was one shrewd dirty fighter. I know it is heresy to say this but watch his fight against Foreman. Ali was the master at holding and hitting. In fact, watch any of his fights! Ali knew every trick in the book and he used them all. Experienced boxers know loads of tricks that are against the rules. If you think Randy excels at dirty boxing, wait until he faces Toney!

The light weight of the mma gloves will favor Toney, not Couture. Boxers train with 16 ounce gloves to build strength and endurance. With 4 ounce gloves, Toney will punch harder, faster and with greater leverage than anyone Randy has ever faced.

What about their chins? There has been some discussion lately about whether boxers have better chins than mma fighters. An athlete’s ability to absorb punishment and avoid being knocked out is an absolute prerequisite for success in boxing. You don’t make it to the top of your weight class without having a solid chin in boxing. Are there guys who make it to the top who don’t have good chins? Sometimes. Floyd Patterson might be a good example. But they are in the minority. The fighters at the top of every weight class are the guys who are hardest to take out. By definition, lesser fighters have tried and failed. Toney is a guy who can absorb punishment and he’s been tested. Can Randy take a shot? I would say it’s not clear. Your chin gets worse with age. It’s a fact of life.

We know from news reports that Toney has brought mma fighters to his camp to practice with “in secret”. I mention the secrecy part of this for a reason: some have asked why his training is a secret. When you consider the dynamic between these two men, you realize that Toney’s camp does not want to give away what they are teaching him because Randy could work around it. By keeping his training a secret, Randy has nothing to go on. Randy will have no idea what Toney is capable of when he steps into the octagon. That is scarey, when you think about it. That is what Heath Herring dealt with when he faced Brock and we know how that ended.

None of us know for sure if James will be able to execute the plan that his team develops for him, and I have no idea what kind of athletic ability Toney has, but I have seen Brock succeed, so I know it can be done if you have a gifted athlete who is motivated. 

Some have said this bout will be a freak show, but I disagree. Toney is talking trash to sell tickets because this is a business. But he is not playing around anymore than Brock was when he wanted to get into the UFC. Brock did the same thing and look how far he’s come in a short time.  Brock made people into believers after two bouts. And he made good on his promise to avenge his loss to Frank Mir! That’s all it will take here. One or two good showings is all it will take. Toney is not Kimbo Slice and the fans who think he is, are making a mistake.

Randy is taking a chance getting in the ring with Toney, but he is a true warrior and he likes a challenge. Will Toney knock out Couture when they square off? I think there is a good chance he will. And then you will hear the cries that Couture is washed up and should get out of the game for good. I just hope the fans give Randy his due. Whatever the outcome, he deserves a lot of credit for taking Toney on! This will not be an easy fight!