Manchester City Will Set the Transfer Merry Go Round In Motion

There have been a few bursts of activity but the preseason transfer market has yet to fully kick into action. Much of what happens between now and the closure of the transfer window will depend on big spending Manchester City, particularly in the Premiership.

With the exception of Valencia, who need the cash from the David Silva sale to balance their books, most of the clubs Man City purchase from will look to reinvest in new players. Also as more new signings arrive at Man City an increasing number of established players will be deemed a surplus to requirements.

Given Roberto Mancini's choice of signings so far it seems likely his side will line up in a 4-3-3 formation next season. Mancini would presumably play Emmanual Adebayor as the central striker with Carlos Tevez and David Silva in the wide attacking roles. 

This would leave Roque Santa Cruz as the only alternative to Adebayor as the central striker and Craig Bellamy, Shaun Wright Phillips and Adam Johnson as potential replacements for either Tevez or Silva. In this situation either Wright Phillips or Bellamy will presumably find themselves as surplus to requirements. Wright Phillips might be more attractive to the club as he will qualify as a homegrown player under the impending rule change but Bellamy was definitely the better performer last season.

Man City now have three outstanding central midfielders in Nigel De Jong, Gareth Barry and Yaya Toure. These three would probably all line up together in a three-man midfield, meaning there would be no place in the starting 11 for either Vincent Kompany, Patrick Vieira, Stephen Ireland or Michael Johnson.

Vieira was only signed in January and is unlikely to be sold, while Kompany is equally adept as a central defender and may be retained purely due to his versatility. Michael Johnson and Stephen Ireland are both homegrown players but neither is likely to get much of a look in next season.

Johnson missed most of the previous campaign due to injury and clubs will be reluctant to sign him on a permanent basis but he might be a candidate for a loan move. It is difficult to see where Ireland will fit into Mancini's side and, like Wright Phillips, he is growing increasingly frustrated by the lack of first team opportunities. He might agitate for a move.

Defensively Mancini has probably assembled three quarters of his first choice back four. Joleon Lescott had a good first season and him and Kolo Toure are likely to continue their partnership in the centre of defence. Mancini might well consider Kompany his third choice centre back while teenage centre back Dedryck Boyata will only be used as a last resort.

New signing Jerome Boateng could fill either of the two full back slots, which leaves some uncertainty over the future of existing full backs Pabo Zalayeta, Wayne Bridge, Neduom Onuoha and Micah Richards. Zalayeta can play across the defence, as well as in midfield, which makes him a valuable squad member.

If there are no more defensive arrivals Bridge and Boateng will probably start but Boateng's versatility means the second full back slot is very much up for grabs. The futures of Richards and Onuoha are far from certain but they have both emerged from the Man City academy and might be retained purely to help the club meet the homegrown criteria.

Joe Hart's emergence as an England international will make him reluctant to spend another season playing second fiddle to Shay Given but Given's current injury means that Mancini will probably want to have Hart around for a little longer. Hart is yet another homegrown player which might affect Mancini's thinking.

Bellamy is wanted by Tottenham and will not be short of suitors if the club does decide to sanction his sale. Neither will Richards, Onuoha, Wright Phillips or Ireland who are all likely to attract varying levels of interest from Tottenham, Aston Villa and Everton.

Mancini has stated his admiration for Inter Milan forward Mario Balotelli and Wolfsburg striker Edin Dzeko. The arrival of either man would almost certainly signal the end for Roque Santa Cruz. As a striker with a proven Premiership record, Santa Cruz will attract plenty of interest but Man City are unlikely to be able to recoup their original £17.5 million investment. Robinho is very much on the market, but a loan move is more likely than a permanent transfer because he was signed for £32.5 million less than two years ago.

A number of Premiership clubs will be waiting in the wings to snap up any unwanted Man City players. I doubt they would allow any of their players to join Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool or Man Utd but the club might feel that they have improved to the extent that teams outside of the traditional "big four" are no longer a threat. Given that Tottenham and Aston Villa have a track record of signing British players, these clubs are likely to head the queue for any of City's unwanted stars.

If Dzeko does arrive, then Wolfsburg manager Steve Mclaren will definitely be in the market for a goalscoring striker. Barcelona seems to think that despite already having three world class Spanish central midfielders they need a fourth and the sale of Toure will only increase their interest in Arsenal's Cesc Fabregas. Inter will be reluctant to part ways with Mario Balotelli, but if Man City makes them an offer they really can't refuse, Benitez will probably turn his attention to want-away Liverpool midfielder Javier Mascherano.

Barcelona and Real Madrid are sure to flash some more cash, but Man City's actions over the course of the coming months will go a long way towards determining who goes where and when. The transfer market is much like the proverbial pond in which even a small stone can create a ripple effect. Man City's transfer budget is the equivalent of a large rock and when Roberto Mancini chooses to throw it clubs all across Europe will feel the effects.