Fantasy Football Preview: New York Giants 2010

This is the third installment of FFSpin.com's NFC East fantasy football preview.  You can see the other team previews here at BleacherReport.com or at www.ffspin.com.

After starting 5-0, the Giants fell flat on their faces and finished a disappointing 8-8 in 2009, including two final blowouts where it was apparent the entire team had their golf clubs packed for the off season. The once mighty Giants running game struggled all season, ultimately finishing the 2009 season ranked 17th with an average of only 115 yards per game.

Brandon Jacobs battled a knee injury that hampered him all season and limited him to only 835 yards and 5 touchdowns. That was very disappointing for the owners who expected 15 TDs in a repeat of his 2008 production.

Ahmad Bradshaw has a world of talent, but required off-season surgery on both feet which will likely force the Giants to limit his touches in an attempt to prevent a break down. We are targeting Bradshaw for 10-12 touches every week.  It’s worth mentioning that some fantasy football experts are much higher on Bradshaw than they are on Jacobs. ESPN’s Matt Moseley believes that Bradshaw has the upside to be the best running back in the NFC East.

As the running game sputtered, the Giants passing game was forced to pick up the slack. Eli Manning enjoyed a very productive 2009 and Steve Smith made history as the first player ever to catch more than 100 passes for the New York Giants. Manning finished the season as a top ten fantasy QB for the first time and set a new career high for passing yards in a season with 4,2000.  Steve Smith was not the only beneficiary of Eli’s strong season—Hakeem Nicks enjoyed an excellent rookie campaign, and Kevin Boss had career-best numbers in catches and yards and five TDs .  

We expect the Giants offense to become a more balanced attack in 2010, provided that Jacobs and Bradshaw can remain healthy.  Eli Manning’s career season in 2009 makes him a prime candidate to be overvalued in 2010 drafts.  Brandon Jacobs is only 27, but he has missed nine games during the past three seasons. Injuries are a major concern based on his history and his running style. Despite this, people are targeting him as a No.2 running back in drafts.

He may well post numbers worthy of the confidence those people are placing in him largely because he he remains the goal line back, but proceed with caution.

FANTASY FOOTBALL SPIN

Stud: WR Steve Smith —In his 3rd NFL season, a magical number for wide receivers, Smith busted out, more than doubling his 2008 yardage total.

He stated his claim as the real Steve Smith by finishing with 107 catches for 1,220 yards and seven touchdowns.  The consistency he displayed should be appealing to fantasy owners.

Smith was held to under 50 yards only three times and should remain a PPR monster as Eli Manning’s go to receiver.

Dud: RB Brandon Jacobs - Many people think that Ahmad Bradshaw is a better runner, either way, these two backs should be sharing the load and you have to wonder if there are enough points here to make both viable fantasy options.  If I were to pick one, it would be Bradshaw.  He is coming off of an injury, but Jacobs seems to be perpetually coming off an injury.  Bradshaw has a very impressive career rushing average of 5.23 yards.  You can't expect him to maintain that pace, however.  The sampling of his work is fairly small.  We saw that last year as Bradshaw more than doubled his carries (from 67 in 2008 to 163 in 2009) and fell from 5.2 ypc to a still impressive 4.8.  Here is a very interesting piece from Chase Stuart at Footballguys.com about how running backs average per carries fall off as you increase workload. 

What we have in Jacobs may be a story of diminishing returns.  His running style is punishing not only to opponents, but to himself.  His production fell of last year in a big way and Bradshaw emerged not only as a very good rushing option, but as a nice receiver out of the backfield.  

Sleeper: WR Hakeem Nicks–It’s a stretch to call Nicks a sleeper. It’s an overused term for sure, but one that gets the point across.

Nicks could be undervalued in drafts.

Nicks has a nice combo of strength and speed, and he looks like a prototypical wide receiver. He missed time early in his rookie season due to nagging toe and wrist injuries but, if healthy, he is primed for a breakout year. 

In 2009, Nicks totaled close to 800 yards and 6 touchdowns and should be a WR3 in 2010.

For the full version of this article with additional opinions from other expert fantasy football sites, go to http://www.ffspin.com/?p=1969