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Predicting something that is so consistently unpredictable as the NFL season can be a hard task. So many factors can alter the long road of an NFL team.
Injuries, inconsistency, suspensions, and unmotivated players are just some of these road blocks that can give a good team a bad record. That is what makes predicting these totals hard. 2010 NFL over/under totals.
To help me with these totals I’ve come up with a system. A system can bring consistency to an inconsistent world. All I do is put in the information, and the system spits out the answer.
I’ve weighted this technique based on 12 factors, which all have their own multipliers depending on importance to a win or loss. Confused? Here’s an example.
All categories are weighted depending on importance to a NFL game
Quarterback Play x3
Downfield Threat x1
Running Game x3
Offensive Line x2
Underneath Receivers x1
Defensive Line x3
Pass Rush x2
Strength of Schedule x3
Now, we give each category a value worth 1-5. This is where the skill comes in. Just because a team ranked in the top 10 last year doesn’t mean you should give them a 4-5 rating.
You have to look at all the variables that go into an off season. Has the team had key subtractions? Additions? Are they getting old? Has the coaching scheme changed?
Once you assign a value to each category, your spreadsheet just needs to be totaled. Here’s an example of the system I did on the Detroit Lions.
Quarterback Play x3 3 Stafford progressed at end of last season
Downfield Threat x1 5 C. Johnson is top 3 Wr’s in the league
Running Game x3 2.5 Lions ran ball well before they trailed in 2nd half
Offensive Line x2 2.5 Rob Sims will improve this unit
Underneath Receivers x1 4 Petitgrew, Sheffler, Burleson, Best, Smith are quality
Defensive Line x3 4 Suh, Williams are team’s biggest additions
Linebackers x1 2 Peterson is only proven player
Secondary x2 2 Delmas is a 2010 pro bowl candidate
Scheme x2 3.5 Schwartz is key
Pass Rush x2 3 Cliff Avril will shine with new d-line
Strength of Schedule x3 2 NFC North is tough division, but still play Rams and Bucs
Undervalued x3 5 Same old team? I say no.
Adding up all the totals, we get a score of 82. Now we have to calculate if this score has good enough value to make a bet on.
The over/under for the Lions as provided by the Las Vegas Hilton is 5. The reason that I like taking the over of the low totals is that the ceiling is so much higher. When you bet a team to go over 10.5 wins, your ceiling is 5.5. A team with a over/under of 5, has a ceiling of 11.
Here’s a chart that shows the point totals needed to make a certain over/under play. Scores are based on previous seasons.
Over/Under Win Totals Minimum Number of Points
As you can see the Lions went over the minimum score of 80, with an 82. Considering the ceiling that the Lions have (paragraph above), this would be a safe bet. Other teams that are products of this syetm are included below.
Carolina Panthers: 7.5 Wins
Minimum # Points: 90
Carolina not only boasts a stellar running attack and offensive line, but they also have a favorable schedule in 2010. The Rams, Browns, Seahawks, and division rival Buccaneers all struggled against the run.
Combine that with how much they will be undervalued (thanks to Jake Delhommes' 18 to 8 interception/touchdown ratio), and you got a safe bet. The Panthers still finished over the total last year (8-8) even with all those turnovers.
St. Louis Rams: 5 Wins
Minimum # Points: 70
St. Louis hasn't improved much on a roster that only produced one win. They have built for the future by drafting Sam Bradford, but he won't start right away.
The defense is still vulnerable in most every area, especially in the secondary. The only thing going their way this year is a weak schedule against the NFC West.
Chicago Bears: 8 Wins
Minimum # Points: 88
Chicago has made some loud additions, but that usually doesn't turn into wins. They have holes along the offensive and defensive line. They have no downfield threat. They can't run the ball. Their schedule is also very tough playing Green Bay and Minnesota twice.
Detroit Lions: 5 Wins
Minimum # of Points :70
Detroit has seen a turn around like no other team in the NFL. They now boast a defensive line that will dominate with the additions of Suh, Corey Williams, and Kyle Vanden Bosch. Add that to under valued third year player Cliff Avril, and you've got a team that is exteremly under valued.
They bosast one of the best downfield threats in the game with Calvin Johnson. A young, strong armed quarterback, and a offensive line that will improve with the 10 ranked guard Rob Sims.