Diary of a Draft Man: Athlon Mock Draft Analysis

The first mock of the year is complete.  Let the analysis commence! 

Below are some thoughts on the 2010 Athlon Sports college fantasy football mock draft, which you can review in its entirety here .  We’ll kick things off with some overall draft comments - the value picks and head scratchers - then dive into our own picks a bit.

VALUE PICKS

02.11 Bernard Pierce (RB, Temple) - I believe Pierce is better than the 13th RB off the board.
06.06 G.J. Kinne (QB, Tulsa) - I expected him to go a couple rounds higher than this.
07.06 Diondre Borel (QB, Utah State) - Another uber-productive fantasy player who slipped through the cracks as others grabbed QBs from higher profile schools.
10.06 Alex Torres (WR, Texas Tech) - While he might not be the second coming of Michael Crabtree, Torres looked like the top WR for the Red Raiders in spring ball.  Suprised he lasted this long and was shocked to see Detron Lewis go 32 picks before him.
11.05 Patrick Edwards (WR, Houston) - If you don’t grab Cleveland or Carrier early, Edwards is a nice fallback option.  Especially in the 11th round.
13.02 Rob Housler (TE, Florida Atlantic) - Look for Housler to have a nice year with Jason Harmon & Jamari Grant off to greener pastures.
13.06 Jamie Hampton (QB, Troy) - Hampton is a guy to draft as your QB3 or QB4, who could wind up sneaking into your starting lineup more than you think this fall.
18.01 Mike McNeill (TE, Nebraska) - Good example of waiting until the late rounds to draft a decent TE.

INTRIGUING SELECTIONS

07.07 MiQuale Lewis (RB, Ball State) - Can he rebound from an atrocious 2009?
07.11 Michael Smith (RB, Utah State) - Smith is a fine-looking prospect who will replace the injured Robert Turbin if he’s unable to go this season.  Heading into this mock draft, it was tough to slap a draft value on the guy.  I suppose the 7th round sounds about right given this format.
09.09 Eugene Jarvis (RB, Kent State) - Like MiQuale, it’s tough to figure out where to pull the trigger on this former MAC star.  We must remember that he hasn’t produced a standout fantasy season since his magical 2007 campaign.  That’s 930 days and three major injuries ago. 
12.03 Steven Sheffield (QB, Texas Tech) - Sure, he comes with all sorts of questions.  But in the 12th round, “Sticks” is probably a risk worth taking.
16.06 Charles Clay (RB, Tulsa) - It’s safe to say we were all scared off by the dropoff in Clay’s 2009 production.

HEAD SCRATCHERS

01.03 Tyrelle Pryor (QB, Ohio State) - Way too high for my taste.
The wheels came off a bit in the 4th round….
04.01 Dayne Crist (QB, Notre Dame) - I was surprised to see Crist go as the 10th QB off the board.  Give me Borel, Padron, Dobbs and a host of others ahead of Crist, a first-time starter who’s coming off an ACL injury.
04.05 Brynn Harvey (RB, UCF) - Due to an injury, he might not see the field until October, at best. 
04.06 John Brantley (QB, Florida) - 11th QB off the board.  I’d prefer to take the wait-and-see approach on Tebow’s heir apparent.
04.09 Lance Kendricks (TE, Wisconsin) - I’m not sure that any tight end is worth a 4th round pick this season.
04.10 Washaun Ealey (RB, Georgia) - Seemed like there were better options on the board here.  I’m down on UGA from a fantasy perspective.
07.12 Detron Lewis (WR, Texas Tech) - Lewis over Torres (who went 3 rounds later)?
09.11 Mikel LeShoure (RB, Illinois) - I’ll admit that this pick sent me scurrying to do research on the guy.  What was I missing here?  ...Turns out I wasn’t missing anything.  LeShoure could have been had later in this draft.
10.01 Ohio State Defense - Just too early to take any defense.  Those who reached for the “can’t miss” 2009 Florida defense will surely agree.
10.02 Iowa Defense - Ditto.

NOTABLE OMISSIONS

Robert Turbin (RB, Utah State) - Remember guys, he might not play this year due to an ACL injury.  We should know more about his status in August.
Darren Evans (RB, Virginia Tech) - Ryan Williams owners might want to use The Evans Handcuff.
Bryce Beall (RB, Houston) - News of Charles Sims being ineligible came out literally a couple hours after this mock draft was completed.  Beall will leap up draft boards.
Matt Asiata (RB, Utah) - He’s coming off an injury and will have to battle Eddie Wide for carries.  Still, I thought he would go in the later rounds based on name value alone.
Taylor Potts (QB, Texas Tech) - Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

SO, WHAT DID WE LEARN HERE?

The tight ends are a mess. Solid ones can be had in the middle and late rounds.

Wait until 5 or 6 defenses are off the board before you snag one for yourself.   No need to reach for one.  Same thing goes for kickers. This theory applies to ANY season, but it’s worth repeating.  Don’t be “that guy” who reaches for a DEF or PK.  Just don’t do it.

There appears to be fewer high-profile fantasy studs in this year’s crop than in past seasons.   A sizeable amount of tried-and-true college fantasy talent is off to play on Sundays.  While in past years the sure-fire talent pool seemed to be 50-60 players deep, this year there may be a perceived dropoff after the top 30-40 are off the board. 

What does this mean to you?  It could mean that you’ll see some really out-of-whack selections beginning as early as the 4th round.  Be prepared to make these wayward drafters pay for their mistakes.

I think the 1st Round from this mock is a pretty good representation for how most real drafts will shake out in August (sans Pryor at No. 3).  Look for a blend of QBs and RBs to go early, as is the case in most years.

ROUND-BY-ROUND DRAFT DIARY - TODD DEVRIES’ SQUAD

Below are a few thoughts on each of my selections.  For a quick view of my squad, as well as Joe’s, click here.

ROUND 1

My Pick:  Case Keenum
For the second year in a row, I drew the No. 1 overall pick… and selected Mr. Keenum. 

ROUNDS 2-3 (the turn)

My Picks:  Daniel Thomas (RB, Kansas State) & James Cleveland (WR, Houston)
Had to go RB with one selection.  Thomas fit the bill.  I was pleasantly surprised to see Cleveland fall into my lap.

ROUNDS 4-5

My Picks:  Zach Collaros (QB, Cincinnati) & Mohammed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
It was slim pickings at RB as all of the big names were off the board and we had entered a new tier, so I grabbed the best available at QB and WR.  Collaros & Keenum form the best QB tandem in the league.  And Sanu makes a great WR2 in this format.

ROUNDS 6-7

My Picks:  Alfred Morris (RB, Florida Atlantic) & Baron Batch (RB, Texas Tech)
Set at QB and WR, it was time to start grabbing RBs.  Shortly after I selected Batch (remember this draft began back in April), Batch suffered an injury and reports surfaced that RBBC was a strong possibility in Lubbock this fall.  Doh!

ROUNDS 8-9

My Picks:  T.Y. Hilton (WR, Florida Int’l) & Robbie Rouse (RB, Fresno State)
Hilton had a great spring camp and could be primed for a nice rebound season. 

Rouse is a sexy pick as he tries to fill the shoes of the departed Ryan Mathews.  An RB4 with upside.

ROUNDS 10-11

My Picks: Austen Arnaud (QB, Iowa State) & Rodney Bradley (WR, Hawaii)
Arnaud will be in his second year of running the “Chase Clement Rice Offense”.  I like him as a reserve. 

Bradley is coming off a broken leg that cut his season short last fall. He claimed to be 80-90% by the end of spring.  If healthy, Bradley could wind up being an absolute steal in the 11th round.

ROUNDS 12-13

My Picks: Joe Martinek (RB, Rutgers) & Vance McDonald (TE, Rice)
Alright, by the looks of things we have now officially entered the “what the hell, let’s take a few flyers” portion of the draft.  I’ve always had some Man Love for Rutgers RBs as Brian Leonard and Ray Rice led me to titles over the years.  Can Jersey Joe significantly surpass his 967-9 statline from a year ago?

At TE, I wanted to go with a sleeper with high upside.  Vance McDonald is an athletic playmaker who has turned heads in practice the past few years.  A true Scout Team Hero.  Can he translate his ability onto the field in live action?

ROUNDS 14-15

My Picks:  Nebraska DEF & Martevious Young (QB, Southern Miss)
The run on defenses had begun and I found myself right in the sweet spot.  The Huskers defense should be a preseason top five—eight unit. 

I decided to roll the dice on Young as my QB4 as I’m not totally convinced Austin Davis will be 100% come fall.  If Young earns the starting job, he’s a Top 20 fantasy QB.

ROUNDS 16-17

My Picks: Donavan Varner (WR, Duke) & Grant Ressel (PK, Missouri)
Varner put up a 65-1047-8 statline last year - that’s more receiving yardage than Titus Young, Tyron Carrier, Patrick Edwards or James Rodgers.  However, he’ll be breaking in a new QB this fall and we’ll find out what he’s made of. 

Ressel is a top five kicker in all formats and I figured it was worth grabbing him here as I only have one selection left and about five RBs have caught my eye.

ROUND 18

My Pick:  Mike Ball (RB, Nevada)
This one was down to Ball and Bryce Beall.  I went with Ball, and about 2 hours later news broke that UH’s Charles Sims has been ruled ineligible for the 2010 season.  I do like Ball as a deep sleeper.  Remember, Luke Lippincott and his 1,000 rushing yards are gone.  Ball and Lampford Mark will battle for those stats.

ROUND-BY-ROUND DRAFT DIARY - JOE ARPASI’s SQUAD

ROUND 1

Joe’s Pick:  Colin Kaepernick (QB Nevada)
I was sitting next to Todd in the second overall position. Kaepernick is as established as they come.

ROUNDS 2-3

Joe’s Picks:  Bernard Pierce (RB, Temple) & Greg Salas (WR, Hawaii)
I needed a top RB badly here, and was worried that Pierce would be snagged up before my second round selection. Lucky for me he fell into my lap with the 23rd overall pick. That may have been the best selection of my draft. After the turn, I went with Hawaii’s high flyer Salas.

ROUNDS 4-5

Joe’s Picks:  Jake Locker (QB, Washington) & Derrick Washington (RB, Missouri)
There was going to be a large value drop at the QB position coming and I could not pass on my boy Jake Locker here. Too much value to not lock down two top ten QBs.

After Todd drafted Sanu I felt I could wait for a WR and decided to go with Derrick Washington who should have a rebound season now that he’s fully healthy.

ROUNDS 6-7

Joe’s Picks:  Jerrel Jernigan (WR, Troy) & Alexander Robinson (RB, Iowa State)
With my QBs locked down it was time to focus in on RBs and WRs. I felt that many of the RBs left could be waited on so I addressed my needs at WR first by grabbing Jernigan.

After the turn came back around to me I decided to make a safe RB pick and went with Robinson who should hit 1,000 yards and ten TDs easily in 2010.

ROUNDS 8-9

Joe’s Picks:  Mario Fannin (RB, Auburn) & Bryant Moniz (QB, Hawaii)
I decided to grab Fannin since his name was garnering attention over the spring and the fact he most likely wouldn’t last very long. Although I could have really used a WR with the next selection I decided to wait since the group of players left were pretty similar in my eyes. I instead went for value by drafting Moniz. At the time, he had left the team for personal issues.  Once news spread that the reason for his leave was due to a family issue (his father’s passing), I felt my QB situation was solid.

ROUNDS 10-11

Joe’s Picks: Juron Criner (WR, Arizona) & Vidal Hazelton (WR, Cincinnati)
Although I like the Arizona passing game this season, I think drafting Criner in round ten was my worst pick of the mock draft. He could have been had later, and I hate to reach for players. But I do like his upside and he will serve as a good spot starter in fantasy line-ups. Hazelton was the better selection of this turn. He and the Cincinnati passing game have plenty of upside. 

ROUNDS 12-13

Joe’s Picks: Jereme Brooks (WR, Utah) & Rob Housler (TE, Florida Atlantic)
I felt like I made up for my early selection of Criner with the value selection of Brooks with the 143rd overall pick. Brooks will be the top WR for the Utes and he will serve as a good WR 3/4.

ROUNDS 14-15

Joe’s Picks:  TCU DEF & Rodney Stewart (RB, Colorado)
By the time the 14th round selection came up, seven defense had been selected. Being able to grab the TCU defense as the eighth one off the board was a good value selection.

Since I had finished the QB position and I drafted three straight WRs, it was time to go RB. Stewart looks to have a bigger role in the offense and he provided a solid selection at a time when others were drafting sleepers at the RB position.

ROUNDS 16-17

Joe’s Picks: V.J. Floyd (RB, Southern Miss) & Tracy Moore (WR, Oklahoma State)
This was the portion of the draft where I decided to pick a sleeper at RB and WR to stamp my name on. If a single back can emerge at Southern Miss, they will have great fantasy value. There is a logjam right now, but Floyd had emerged more than the other backs by the end of spring camp.

Moore is a big bodied WR that could become Oklahoma State’s James Cleveland. He is a real deep sleeper, but is worth the risk toward the end of your drafts.

ROUND 18

Joe’s Pick: Jake Rogers (PK, Cincinnati)
I am not a fan of kickers, so I decided to just wait until the very end to select one. I was the very last person to select a kicker, but I was pleased to jump on the Cincinnati bandwagon, yet again…

Joe Arpasi is the co-owner of CollegeFootballGeek.com , your premier resource for college fantasy football information. Check us out.