UFC 114: Where Does a Win Put Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in the Title Mix?

In terms of skill, the best fight that can be made in the light heavyweight division is a rematch between UFC champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

However, the sport of MMA and the business of the UFC are two totally different things. The most competitive matches never trump the most financially lucrative ones, and this fight falls under the most competitive category.

The job of the UFC is to convince the American fans that Rogerio Nogueira is the top contender for the title, and to transform this match from not only the best fight in the division, but also the biggest.

The originally scheduled bout between Rogerio and the ever-popular Forrest Griffin would have gone a long way in doing so, but as most of you know, Griffin was forced to pull out of the fight due to a shoulder injury.

Jason Brilz, who is 3-1 in the UFC, agreed to step in for Griffin on less than four weeks notice. Brilz is by no means a household name, even with the hardcore fans. A win for Rogerio, which is very near guaranteed, will do little to instill the confidence in fans that will push him to the next level of popularity.

A highlight reel finish will certainly help the cause, but Rogerio will need a household name on his UFC resume before a fight with Shogun can sell a decent number of pay-per-views.

Rogerio's MMA resume certainly is not lacking recognizable names in the win column. Since 2005 he has stopped such notables as Dan Henderson, Alistair Overeem, Vladimir Matyushenko, and most recently in his UFC debut, Luis Cane.

And how good was his 2005 bout with Shogun? I'd consider it one of the best fights I've ever seen in my life.

In the second round of the 2005 Pride Middleweight Grand Prix, the two battled evenly for twenty full minutes of action, dropping each other numerous times in a match that most felt could have gone either way.

Shogun barely pulled it out with a few extra takedowns, and then went on to win the tournament. Most would agree that if Rogerio had been given the decision in that fight, he would have been the one to capture the title.

While that is speculative, the competitiveness with the now UFC champion is not.

To those who say Rogerio must pay his dues and work his way up the UFC ladder, I say that the sport is MMA, not UFC.

Rogerio has been fighting topnotch opponents since the beginning of the decade. Pride fans remember the thrilling main event he shared with Kazushi Sakuraba in 2003, which he won, and the first-round submission of Dan Henderson in 2005.

No, the Brazilian is not without his accomplishments, but he is without the popularity in a country that now seems the center of the sport. Beating Brilz will not be enough for a main event match against Shogun, so the UFC will have to consider who they can match him with that has enough name value to catapult him to that level.

The two most likely fights that spring to my mind would either be a recovered Forrest Griffin, or, if he can get past his August meeting with James Toney, Randy Couture.

Randy has stated he hopes to get a shot at the title once he takes care of Toney, but most would see that as a bit undeserved. If Couture could get a win over someone like Rogerio, he would certainly have a case for being the top contender. And if Rogerio could add a win over someone like Couture to his resume, that would certainly earn him a place in the minds of casual fans.

The story lines would already be set since Couture lost to Rogerio's twin brother at heavyweight last year.

A less likely option would be to put Rogerio in with the winner of Chuck Liddell vs. Rich Franklin. Both would be underdogs, but they both have big names in the UFC.

If this was only a sport, Rogerio would be a likely challenger for the title by the end of the year. But this is also a business, and he must work both sides if he plans to capture that belt.