Fedor Emelianenko vs. Alistair Overeem: The Numbers Do Not Lie

It would seem prudent at this juncture to look at this potential encounter in a cold hard way. No opinions, just numbers and analysis.

Due to the overwhelmingly incorrect concept that Fedor is ducking the Strikeforce Champion It is necessary to simply examine the facts and see what they reveal.

The following is a comparison of the the last five fights engaged in by each competitor.

Alistair's last 5 fights:

Brett Rogers 10-1 (W) 1 loss streak
Kaz Fujita 15-9 (W) 2 loss streak - 4 losses of 6
James Thompson 15-12 (W) 2-7-1 over previous 10
Tony Sylvester 11-3 (W) 1-2 over last 3
Gary Goodridge 23-22 (W) 2-8 over last 10 with 7 straight losses

Fedor's last 5 fights:

Brett Rogers 10-0 (W) 10-0 over last ten fights. Top 10 HW
Andre Arlovski 15-8 (W) 5 fight win streak 11 of previous 13. Top 10 HW
Tim Sylvia 24-4 (W) 7-3 over previous 10 fights Top 10 HW
Hong Man-Choi 1-0 (W) exhibition, Choi no losses (only 1 fight)
Matt Lindland 20-4 (W) 9-1 over previous 10 fights

Alistair Overeem Opponent stats last 5:

Undefeated opponents: 0
Top 10 opponents: 0
Total combined record of past 5: 74-47
combined opponent record over their prev 10: 24-26

Fedor Emelianenko stats last 5:

Undefeated Opponents: 2
Top 10 opponents: 3
Total combined record of past 5: 80-16
combined record over their prev 10: 36-5 (does not equal 50 because Choi had only 1)

The numbers would seem to indicate a vast chasm between the skill level and competitive nature of each fighter. Fedor seems to win more and against better competition. That is not an opinion, the numbers do not lie.

Perhaps Alistair only wants the fame he thinks he will get from beating Fedor. The problem is that he is not a patient person and refuses to wait his turn. Therefore he stirs up controversy by constantly calling out Fedor.

Alistair has never beaten a top 10 opponent. He has been knocked out 11 times. The questionable competition Alistair faced revealed an apparently weak jaw. The last time he fought someone that wasn't on a losing streak he was knocked out.

It would be hard to gauge fan reaction to such a fight. While the hype might be tremendous there could be some backlash if Alistair cant make a fight out of it. Fedor would then face further abuse from fans that claim he is only fed weak fighters.

So why does Fedor's camp even have to humor Alistair? If Strikeforce wants the fight then the fight will happen. To have the Champion chasing the challenger seems rather comical in itself.

If Alistair could fight an opponent such as Big Foot it would do a lot to add to his credibility. In addition the fact is that Fedor is already booked and would not be available to fight until April of 2011.

Though Big Foot is barely a top 10 guy he would at least be a respectable opponent. It would be the first time Overeem didn't fight someone on a losing streak in five years when he was demolished by Shogun Rua.

Perhaps Overeem and his camp think that if they stoke the fires high enough and manipulate writers into feeding this propaganda, that Fedor will drop his commitments to real fighters and give into Alistair's demands.

Viewing it historically it is not likely to pan out that way. After all, Fedor has Werdum and after that comes Barnett. Fedor will be not be available until around April of next year. Till then Alistair should find someone else to fight such as the aforementioned Big Foot. If he can beat Fedor then Big Foot should not pose any major challenges right?

Everyone is questioning Fedor but not many fans here or anywhere else seem to question Alistair's ability and level of competition. Fedor is constantly railed upon regarding the quality of his opponents. The question is, if Alistair is fighting far worse competition what does that say about him and why are only a few fans questioning that aspect?

Is Alistair or Fedor more important to the future of the Strikeforce operation?

Regardless, the time Alistair must wait in order to get his date with Fedor could be used productively by fighting some better opponents. He needs to challenge himself or he will not have very much chance at all of defeating Fedor.

Ironically the worse Alistair does against Fedor the worse it could end up being for Fedor's reputation.

Is Fedor being treated fairly in this war of words? The numbers seem to tell a clear story but we don't need to interpret that for anyone- it's pretty easy to understand why Fedor doesn't pay much heed to Alistair's cries, taunts, and even attacks on his very manhood.

Is Alistair simply desperately afraid that someone will beat Fedor before him? Alistair stands to gain quite a bit of money and recognition by winning such a fight. Unfortunately it is very unlikely- at least according to the math - that Fedor would lose to Alistair or anyone else for that matter.

Does Alistair have a weak jaw? Could Alistair possibly compete with Fedor on the ground?

Even if he finally gets such a fight, Alistair will likely lose anyway.

Perhaps he should start looking at the UFC as a possible career move.

Addendum: A few corrections need to be made.

Firstly Overeem has defeated a Top 10 fighter in Brett Rogers. Despite his loss to Fedor, He was listed as the #8 HW in the world. Alistair deserves credit for this win.

Secondly Alistair has been KO'd 9 times not 11.

Lastly The opponents of Overeem during his last five fights are a combined 24-26 not 26-26 as peviously listed. I believe now that it was a typo. However Fedor's opponents are actually 36-5 over the past 10. The number does not equal 50 because Choi only had one fight.

It is regretable that mistakes such as these were made on an article that based its entire premise on statistics. Additional care will be taken in the future to ensure erors such as these do not occur.