Why "Shogun" Will Prove First Performance was No Fluke

When Lyoto Machida faced Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, Rua officially lost the match by decision. Since that night, many UFC fans seem to have forgotten the booing crowd, internet polls blowing up, often showing nearly 80% in favor of Rua having won.

Even Fightmetric.com scored the match in Rua's favor, and it gave an excellent breakdown of the bout. Essentially, respective to both fighters' most effective areas, Rua's leg kick power in comparison to Machida's body punch power was twice as strong, twice as accurate, and twice as frequent. Look at the numbers for yourself.

Once Machida's legs were disabled, Shogun was able to severely nullify Machida's offense. However, he made the mistake of taking it easy the last round by trying to win by points, and not by finishing the fight.

Seemingly overnight, critics of Rua's performance became apologists for Machida's performance. Make no mistake, though: Machida won the first match by the judges' leniency and/or lack of accuracy in judging; not superior skill.

Even Machida admitted he clearly had holes in his game that Rua capitalized on. But many claim Rua's profit was due to chance, Machida not in good enough shape, et cetera.

The general consensus is that people who think Machida actually won, believe Shogun did as well as he did by chance, and that it was a fluke. But what these same fans aren't taking into consideration is that by asserting the proposition that luck was involved, they mistakenly claim that Machida gave the better performance.

No more flawless record, no more belt. Machida has a lot of talent, but Shogun knows how to beat him. Remember, there were two reasons Rua didn't officially win the first time:

1) The judging was poor

2) He thought he already had enough points to win, and he didn't push to finish the fight

The second reason was a mistake on the part of Rua and his corner, because had Rua pushed it, he would have more decisively beat Machida and possibly ended the fight. Rua learned a hard lesson, and hopefully in tonight's match he will try his best to finish the fight, and re-prove to the world that he is the true UFC light heavyweight champion.

Rua will once again tear up Machida's legs, nullify his offenses, and make Machida desperate to perform punch flurries or look for a takedown, both of which will be ineffective.

As for Machida, really the only chance he has is if he stays completely out of Rua's range and happens to catch him off guard. Rua beat Machida standing and in the clinch, so perhaps Machida will look to take the match to the ground where we don't know what will happen since there was no grappling in the first match.

Where are the good old Pride stomps when you need them?