2010 Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Outlook—Is This Matt Stafford's Big Year?

It seems like each year Detroit Lions fans make the biggest fantasy football mistake—drafting Lions players.

Not that I'm not guilty myself. It's something you can't help but do sometimes. For instance, last season I drafted Calvin Johnson in the second round. Luckily, I also drafted Miles Austin and Vincent Jackson. 

Kevin Smith was another mistake, often taken in the first three rounds in the majority of drafts last season, only to disappoint. Not that he's a bad player, but running behind an average at best offensive line, and being injured played part for a mostly failed season.

It would not have surprised me if a lot of Lions fans selected Matthew Stafford as well, more than likely as their last pick. Even though he showed that he can be a good quarterback in the NFL, fantasy football is all about stats, not growth and development—unless you're playing in a keepers league.

For the first time in years, I'm actually very optimistic for the upcoming 2010 season. With all the additions the Lions made in the offseason, I think you will see a breakout year for the Lions at the skill positions.

QB Matthew Stafford

2009 Stats: 10 games, 61.0 QB rating, 201 completions, 377 attempts, 53.3 comp. percentage, 2,267 yards, 226.7 yards per game, 13 touchdowns, 20 interceptions.

2010 Projected Stats: 330 completions, 520 attempts, 63.4 comp. percentage, 3,650 yards, 228 yards per game, 30 touchdowns, 23 interceptions.

While I see the Lions leaning more toward a pass-oriented offense, I still believe Stafford will throw a lot of interceptions. The biggest addition to Stafford's passing attack is rookie running back Jahvid Best.

Let's break it down:

It all starts with the addition of wide receiver Nate Burleson. Now that Detroit has a genuine second receiver, Stafford won't have to always look at Johnson as his first option, and can spread the ball around the field more.

Tight end Tony Scheffler, acquired from Denver in the Ernie Sims trade, should prove to be more valuable than thought. Many Lions fans disagreed with the move, but look at what it does for Stafford; pairing Scheffler up with 2009 first-round pick Brandon Pettigrew gives Detroit a deadly two-tight-end formation.

Scheffler, who is known as a receiving tight end, who can also play some slot, fits nicely with Pettigrew, who is more of a blocking tight end who can catch. The middle of the field should be a very reasonable option for Stafford this season.

Now to Jahvid Best. The biggest reason I've been begging Detroit to draft him since last fall, is his ability to catch the ball.

Unlike last year, where opposing safeties could play a little deeper and cheat towards the wide receiver, the addition of Best alone will eliminate this. 

Not only the safeties but linebackers as well—when Best is in the back field, he's always going to be an option to catch the ball, freezing linebackers, and opening the middle of the field for the tight ends. I expect a lot of play action this season, because not only can Best catch, but he can also take you for a spin running the ball.

With all that said, the biggest impact all this will make is freeing up Calvin Johnson. Everyone in the NFL knows what Johnson brings each  Sunday. In my mind, he's the most explosive receiver in the game, but hasn't has his chance to really shine. 

With all the respectable additions to the pass game, you won't see nearly as much double and triple-teams on Calvin. Imagine what he can do with single coverage. I don't think even Revis Island could contain him.

While I have Stafford's numbers looking pretty good, I'm only giving him the benefit of the doubt because I really believe he will be a great passer.

That said, If you can get him in the mid-later rounds as your back-up, I find that it's a risk worth taking, because he has all the ability and weapons to put up big numbers this season.

Projected 2010 Stats for Receivers:

Calvin Johnson: 80 receptions, 1250 yards, 12 touchdowns

Nate Burleson: 55 receptions, 700 yards, six touchdowns

Tony Scheffler: 35 receptions, 450 yards, four touchdowns

Brandon Pettigrew: 30 receptions, 350 yards, three touchdowns

Jahvid Best: 50 Receptions, 400 yards, two touchdowns

Remember, these numbers are only projections. It's not like the third and fourth receivers won't catch the football, but for the five major targets, these are numbers to consider.

Johnson, like every year so far, is a projected first wide receiver, while a guy like Burleson will make a great spot starter or a fourth receiver in deeper leagues. 

As for the tight ends, I would consider you not put too much stock into either one of them as your No. 1 guy. If, however, all the top tight ends slip away through out your draft, I believe Scheffler will be the better fantasy option of the two because of his red zone ability.

Running Game

With Kevin Smith's uncertain rehab progress, it's hard to put a number on him, simply because he may not be ready by week one. So we're going to consider Best the starter.

We already know what Best can bring to the passing game, but he is also, as you know, a very explosive runner. In my mind I think Best is best suited for the one-two punch running back system. So don't expect much over 250 carries.

But what you can expect is a good yards-per-rush average, and somewhere around the 200 carries mark, building up his carries as the season progresses.

Projected 2010 Stats for Jahvid Best:

210 rush attempts, 1,150 yards, 5.4-yard average, seven touchdowns.

If Best is the starter throughout the whole year, those numbers are very realistic for a guy with his skill set. I could see him as a great second running back, and even a first if you're short on backs.

Team Defense

My advice would be to stay away. Even though the Lions made great strides in becoming a better defense, the position that needed to be filled the most, was hardly addressed.

The Lions cornerbacks, like last year, are very weak. Sure, you can say they went and got a whole new backfield, but unless rookie Amari Spivey has a great season, none of the moves were really upgrades. 

However, if you have the room on your team in the last round, I'd say take a chance. One of the biggest reasons Detroit defense was so bad last year was the lack of the pass rush.

With a whole new, and very much improved defensive line, the Lions will most definitely be getting to the quarterback more often, causing bad passes, and making the corners look good. I think they do have a great sleeper impact. 

Finally...

For your upcoming fantasy football season draft, the only player I will say is a lock is Johnson. The others will be risks, and might come back to bite you if you take them too early on.

Yet, with all the moves to make the team better this year, Detroit has a lot of players who could give great sleeper pick value.

And remember, it's only fantasy football. Please try not to break your computer when you realize you drafted a bust, and good luck in your upcoming season.

Follow Zac Jones on Twitter at http://twitter.com/zrojones