BCS Championship Breakdown: Which Contenders Will Make it to New Orleans?

Who's going to the BCS National Championship?  With nine teams boasting a legit shot at the national title, it appears to be little more than a crap shoot.  So I'll break down each team and let you know who will actually be in New Orleans come January 7th.

Hawaii (9-0)
Marquee Wins: ?
Record Against Ranked Teams: (0-0)
Remaining Schedule: at Nevada, Boise State, Washington
Bottom Line: Pretender.  No chance.

Lets give the Warriors the benefit of the doubt and assume they win out.  So they are undefeated with one win against a ranked team (assuming Boise State is still ranked when they meet November 23rd).  This resume couldn't get them a job as a bag boy.  Colt Brennan may very well throw for 4000 yards again by the time it's over with, but all they will have to show for themselves is an undeserved BCS bowl bid.  Not to mention the trouncing they will get in the aforementioned bowl.  June Jones should schedule a real opponent so the world can see that his offensive scheme only works against bad teams.

Ohio State (10-1)
Marquee Wins: Wisconsin, Purdue, Penn State
Record Against Ranked Teams: (3-0)
Remaining Schedule: at Michigan
Bottom Line: Written off by too many to be considered seriously.

Late losses are almost always fatal in college football.  Couple the Ohio State loss to Illinois with the Big Ten conference's mediocrity this year and the Buckeyes are stopped dead in their tracks.  And this is very unfortunate because despite comments and rankings by many analysts, Ohio State is pretty good this year and should be ranked higher.  They have a defense giving up only 11.4 points and 237.5 total yards per game.  And they're 3-0 against ranked teams.  But even with a big win over Michigan at the Big House it won't be enough.  Maybe if they had a conference championship.  Who knows?

West Virginia (8-1)
Marquee Wins: Rutgers, Louisville, Maryland
Record Against Ranked Teams: (1-1)
Remaining Schedule: at Cincy, UCONN, Pitt
Bottom Line: Need a lot of help to move up. Doesn't look too promising.

The Mountaineers have some issues to overcome.  What initially looked like a stout Big East conference has been put in its place.  South Florida, Rutgers, and Louisville have all been bumped from the top 25, reestablishing the fact that the Big East isn't quite ready to play with the big boys.  Also, West Virginia must still dispatch the two surprise teams of the conference in UConn and Cincy.  Both of these teams are playing way over their heads and a win over West Virginia by either should not be a surprise.  Even if the Mountaineers win out they would still be in line behind Oklahoma, Oregon, LSU, and Ohio State. So they will need some help. But hey, it could happen.  The Big 12 will beat each other up and the SEC Championship is no joke.  The good thing is they still have Pat White and Steve Slaton for another year. 

Arizona State (9-1)
Marquee Wins: Cal, UCLA
Record Against Ranked Teams: (1-1)
Remaining Schedule: USC, Arizona
Bottom Line: Not enough firepower to win out.

Dennis Erickson has done a great job with his group in a Pac 10 conference that gets better every year. That said, ASU's middle of the road offense and defense won't be enough to finish the season without another loss.  The Sun Devils will lose at home to a USC team looking to salvage the season.  And ASU will be completely eliminated from national title contention and conference title contention.

Kansas (10-0)
Marquee Wins: Kansas State, Texas A&M
Record Against Ranked Teams: (1-0)
Remaining Schedule: Iowa State, Missouri, Big 12 Championship (TBD)
Bottom Line: The Cinderella story will not have a happy ending.

The Jayhaws have put together a great year with some gaudy statistics. Quarterback Todd Reesing has had a great year throwing 26 TD's with only 4 interceptions. The Kansas offense averages just under 46 points a game while the defense averages giving up only 15.  But Kansas has yet to play a team that has accumulated more than six wins this year.  And of the five other Big 12 opponents with a winning record, the Jayhawks have played just one of them (Texas A&M, 6-4).  Somehow Kansas has scratched out 10 wins without even being tested.  Mangino and the boys will be tested November 24 at home against Missouri.  And Missouri will be plenty inspired to win this game.  A win here will mean an opportunity to avenge the Tigers' only loss of the season against Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship in December.  Missouri will likely win, though the outcome of this game is of little importance in the national title hunt.  Oklahoma will beat whoever shows up to the title game in Missouri.

Missouri (9-1)
Marquee Wins: Illinois, Texas Tech, Texas A&M
Record Against Ranked Teams: (2-1)
Remaining Schedule: at Kansas St., at Kansas, Big 12 Championship (TBD)
Bottom Line: Two losses to the Sooners will keep the Tigers out of the hunt.

Missouri has a better resume than Kansas but as indicated above, it still won't be enough.  Oklahoma looms in the wings waiting to pounce on the Tigers again in the Big 12 Championship game should Missouri advance this far.

Oregon (8-1)
Marquee Wins: Michigan, USC, Arizona St.
Record Against Ranked Teams: (2-1)
Remaining Schedule: at Arizona, at UCLA, Oregon St.
Bottom Line: Oregon will be in the National Championship.

It won't be easy, but Oregon will win out.  The in state rivalry game with the Beavers will be the most important Civil War game in recent history.  Dixon will be Heisman-like and carry his team to the remaining three victories and on to New Orleans for the BCS National Championship Game.

LSU (9-1)
Marquee Wins: Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn, Alabama
Record Against Ranked Teams: (5-1)
Remaining Schedule: Ole Miss, Arkansas, SEC Championship
Bottom Line: LSU will fall just short.

With 5 wins and only 1 loss against ranked teams, LSU boasts the best resume of any team in the national title hunt and deserves its #1 ranking.  The Tigers' brutal schedule will include a total of 8 games against ranked teams when all is said and done.  LSU should easily slide past Ole Miss and Arkansas.  While the McFadden vs. LSU's #1 Defense matchup will be interesting to watch, it should be no contest.  Then all the Bayou Bengals have to do is win the SEC Championship—a very tall order.  The opponent will be either Tennessee or Georgia.  Georgia has turned a new leaf and looks very dangerous.  The Vols appear to be the better option for the Tigers, but it will be no easy task.  Quarterback Matt Flynn's numbers have been merely OK all season, and LSU is due to for a misstep.  LSU will lose a tough game in Atlanta and come up one game short of the national championship. 

Oklahoma (9-1)
Marquee Wins: Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M
Record Against Ranked Teams: (2-0)
Remaining Schedule: at Texas Tech, Oklahoma St.
Bottom Line: Thanks to a loss by LSU, the Sooners are in.

Oklahoma is the best team in Big 12.  Plain and simple.  Quarterback Sam Bradford has a ridiculous 180.36 QB rating with 28 TDS and 6 INTs while completing 70 percent of his passes.  He may even challenge Oregon's Dixon for the Heisman.  And the defense isn't that bad either.  All the Sooners have to do is win out and wait for LSU to fall.  Then they will take their place behind Oregon in the BCS standings.

So there you have it—Oklahoma vs. Oregon, January 7, 2008 in New Orleans.  And if you don't remember the last time these two met, click here to refresh your memory.  The Sooners will be chomping at the bit for some revenge.

Note: Record Against Ranked Teams statistic tabulated by rank of opponent at time of contest.

*Edit (post Dixon injury)

I wish I had never written this article, but it's here. Given that my entire prognostication was contingent on Oregon's Dixon staying healthy and Heisman-like, it appears that this article is worthless. Dixon is hurt and the Ducks are out. That'll teach me to try and predict 2007 college football. Clearly I have much to learn. Since the the matchup is incorrect, I'd like to propose that unlikely West Virginia takes Oregon's place in the title game. I told you it could happen. The stars are beginning to align.

Oklahoma vs. West Virginia BCS National Title Guess #2

But actually what I would love to happen is for everyone to lose again. How fun would it be to try and figure out what two loss team deserves to play for a national title?