UFC 111: Technical Breakdown & Betting Predicitions

For all the gambling degenerates out there who are just waiting to get some good reasons to lay down some cheddar on fight night, here are my predictions, with some technical analysis to back them up.

St. Pierre (-700) vs. Hardy (+450)

We've now endured three weeks of UFC Primetime hype suggesting that Dan Hardy has a huge striking advantage over Georges St. Pierre.

Hardy might be better than St. Pierre at landing counter shots, and he might even hit harder, but aside from that, Hardy's striking edge has been greatly exaggerated.

St. Pierre has a very good jab,  better footwork, and he mixes his attacks so well that he could really throw Hardy off-balance.

Because St. Pierre can take Hardy down nearly at will, Hardy is going to be hesitant to unleash his full striking arsenal, which should play right into the hands of St. Pierre while the fight remains standing.

On the other hand, if Hardy chooses to try to just open up with his attack, he's going to get taken down and beaten up.

Even at +450, betting on Hardy still just seems like throwing money down the drain. I don't think Hardy's chances of scoring a knockout are that high, and he doesn't really have another likely way to win.

His chances of pulling off a submission are low because he's probably going to be on the bottom of any grappling situation, and his chances of winning a decision are minimal because of what St. Pierre can do with his wrestling.

St. Pierre can win this fight in multiple ways. At the very least, St. Pierre can win with a decision if he uses his wrestling to control Hardy on the ground. Aside from that, St. Pierre can also win the fight by knockout or submission.

At -700, St. Pierre is a very pricey bet, but I still think it's the smart play, although I certainly wouldn't bet the fight too large because of the minimal potential gain. Because St. Pierre took a long time to defeat Penn and went to a decision against Alves, I do think that people underestimate his finishing skills, so if you can get a proposition bet on a St. Pierre stoppage or submission, that might be the way to go, because I don't think this fight goes the distance.

I think St. Pierre is most likely end this one by TKO on the ground, but I'd love it if he finally pulled off the armbar from back control that he's been going for in previous fights.

Pick: St. Pierre at -700, or a stoppage proposition bet with better odds

Shane Carwin (+125) vs. Frank Mir (-155)

This fight is a tough one to call, because we still haven't seen a lot from either fighter that would tell us how this one goes.

If the fight remains standing, Mir might just be able to take advantage of Carwin's plodding attack, but Mir has never really looked too good once he gets hit in the face.

Because these two fighters both bring so much high-powered offence, this fight should end in short order no matter who wins.

I'm leaning towards Carwin, because I think that he'll end up laying hands on Mir, but I'm not confident enough to bet this one.

Pick: Carwin at +125

Jon Fitch (-350) vs. Ben Saunders (+250)

Jon Fitch is rightly favored in this fight due to a big wrestling advantage.

Saunders has been able to do well in many fights because of what he can do in the clinch, but a lot of that should be minimized, since initiating a clinch means stepping right into Fitch's takedowns.

Plus-250 isn't a good enough line for me to bet Saunders, because Fitch has shown a good chin, and at worst he should be able to grind out a decision, but he also has a great chance of finishing with a submission.

Betting at -350 again minimizes gains, so I wouldn't bet this fight too heavily, but it still has good value, I think.

Pick: Fitch at -350

Jim Miller (-400) vs. Mark Bocek (+300 )

Bocek is a very good grappler, but I think Miller does MMA a bit better, due to superior wrestling and striking.

Miller could win this fight on the feet or the ground, with Bocek's best chance coming from trying to initiate a scramble. If this were a straight submission contest, I might favor Bocek, but not by much.

Even at -400, I still feel that Miller is the smart bet.

Pick: Miller at -400

Nate Diaz (-300) vs. Rory Markham (+220)

Diaz is moving up in weight class against an opponent who has already shown off some pretty decent striking and submission skill.

Markham got knocked out badly by Dan Hardy in his last fight, while Diaz is coming off a pretty close loss to lightweight contender Gray Maynard.

Diaz has far more name recognition, and because of that and Markham's latest few results, I think people have been underestimating Markham's chances.

Until Markham came in six pounds over weight, I thought this fight should have been a coin flip. Because Markham came in overweight, I do question his physical condition, but I still think he's the smarter play, because I don't think Diaz will be able to take him down, and I don't think Diaz has the power to really knock Markham out.

I still can't resist Markham at +220.

Pick: Markham at +220

Ricardo Almeida (-155) vs. Matt Brown (+125)

Matt Brown has already beaten BJJ black belts before, and he should have better striking and conditioning than Ricardo Almeida.

That being said, Ricardo Almeida should have a huge grappling advantage, and aside from that, Almeida is generally a pretty smart fighter.

Even when the fight remains on the feet, I see Almeida being able to hold his own because he'll be able to land punches when he closes distance for takedowns. Unlike Pete Sell, Almeida is savvy enough to use his grappling if he gets into any trouble on his feet, and he's just a league above Brown's last opponent, who still nearly submitted Brown.

I think Almeida should be able to get the submission in this fight.

My one worry is that Almeida might get tired out in this fight, but that isn't enough to keep me from betting Almeida, and I think this is possibly the best value bet on the card.

Pick: Almeida at -155.

Other Picks

Palhares over Drwal via submission

Riddle over Soto via decision

Pelligrino over Camoes via decision