UFC 111 Official Predictions

Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves

Alves has learned a lot since his last match with Fitch: seven wins since his last fight with Fitch and a loss to the top welterweight fighter in the world adds a lot of experience to what is already great conditioning and stand-up. Even though Jon Fitch has a great MMA record of 24-3 and a win over the once seemingly indestructible Paulo Thiago, the fight had to go to a decision.

In fact, Fitch's last six fights went to decision. On the contrary, five of Alves's last eight fights were finished, in which even George St. Pierre couldn't finish Alves. Because of his growing skill and ability to finish fights, Thiago Alves should get the victory the second time around by TKO in the third round.

Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin

Many people claim that Carwin has not exposed any weaknesses since he has gone undefeated in eleven fights. This is not true as Gonzaga caught him with a hard punch. However, this only adds to Carwin's credibility as he has been tested and pulled through with a knockout. Many who contest that we will only see how beneficial Mir's new frame is handled by fighting Lesnar are wrong.

This fight will more than likely go to the ground, and granted Carwin has wrestling experience and size comparable to Lesnar's, we will see just how useful Mir's new muscle will handle a potential ground-and-pound by a guy who on record is a lot more threatening than Lesnar. I think Mir will go to round two with Carwin, but ultimately this will either end by Mir getting KOd after trying to stand with the heavy-handed Carwin or by Mir being TKOd by ground-and-pound while in the bottom position. Either scenario will probably happen in the second round.

Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy

On paper, GSP takes this without second thought...which is why we should give it second thought. Serra did show a weakness in GSP's game. By training with Hardy, I don't think Serra could show him anything new. True, the second fight between GSP and Serra showed just how capable GSP is when he's determined; nevertheless, his previous slip with Serra needs to be taken into consideration. In 100 fights, GSP would probably defeat Serra 95 times; but all a brawler needs is that one shot, which the world saw when Serra TKOd GSP.

GSP is a great fighter because he minimizes the risk involved. This has worked out very well for him, but risk is still a part of the fight--especially when you face a brawler. Hardy seems to enjoy risk as he approaches fights aggressively, which provides him with an opportunity that Serra happened to capitalize off of. The trouble with this shows here and there, and GSP's caution is exactly what Serra capitalized off. Many of GSP's opponents have failed because they have tried to out-technique a master technician.

Hardy won't try to win by scoring points, and he's certainly not shy about saying he won't even attempt to be a better athlete than GSP during UFC 111; instead, he wants to swing for the fences. GSP has said that he is determined to win even if he has to go to the mat to do so. This can only mean he's willing to stand and trade with a brawler. That being said, I'll go out on a limb here and see what happens: Hardy takes the victory in the first round by KO.