Vera Vs. Jones Main Card: Odds and Predictions for UFC Live

This coming Sunday, MMA fans should feel ever so briefly disoriented when the UFC’s live: Vera vs. Jones event airs on Versus and other cable TV outlets. Usually, such redemption and excitement take place on a Saturday night. For many, a sobering thought will be that work awaits in less than 12 hours.

The first scheduled fight, opposing MW boxer Alessio Sakara against James "The Sandman" Irvin promises to be a cathartic moment for Irvin for several reasons. It’s his MW debut, the same division that is owned by the man who provided him a stern  first round KO almost two years ago, a LHW Anderson Silva. Irvin will never be reprimanded for having taken the easy road, but his strategic insight will cause observers to scratch their head.

The drop in weight division from 205 to 185 will impact positively his striking power. His cardio is ridiculously bad, his ground game has yet to show, and he has a tendency to drop his hands early in the fight and forego any game plan. News coming out of the weigh-ins on Friday was that Irvin had enormous difficulties making the 185-pound mark. Surprisingly, Irvin is the slight favourite (-125) over his one-dimensional boxing opponent Alessio Sakara (-105).  Judging by the amount of time between his last outing and this one, and the fact that he STILL had issues making weight, it is entirely plausible to wonder whether Irvin is motivated enough to continue in the UFC. It is probable Irvin takes this bout lightly and gets KO’ed by the boxer.  Were this to go the ground, both would feel uncomfortable, but Irvin’s strength should prevail. UFC matchmakers picked those two to deliver a brawl and fans are likely to see just that. If the fight delivers on its promise, Sakara’s boxing will overwhelm Irvin by the end of the second round (TKO) as Irvin’s stubbornness will mar his attempt at a rebirth in the octagon.

Beyond the main card’s bout opposing Irvin and Sakara, the UFC extended its "redemption coupon" sale to both HW fighters featured in the next scheduled bout, pitting Cheick Kongo to Paul Buentello. Coming off a tough  first-round loss to Frank Mir, Kongo will need to demonstrate he still matters in the HW division. He’ll be lucky enough not to have to avoid take-downs this time around, as Buentello hasn’t been prone to take opponents down, unless falling in tandem with them. Kongo is the overwhelming favourite (-400) over Buentello (+300), who’s undertaking his second tour with the UFC. Watch for a potential KO of the Night award to come out of that fight, as both fighters share an aversion for tie-ups and cage-pressing. Kongo will use his knees and leg strikes to break Buentello’s confidence (and lower limbs) by the end of round two.

The co-main event will oppose two exciting and well-rounded BRA HW fighters, Junior Dos Santos (-300) to Gabriel Gonzaga (+220), who are expected to bring the crowd to its feet. Dos Santos id a rising star in the HW division who has run through his competition since his debut in the UFC in October 2008. He will have to contend with an opponent who can trade punches with him (see Gonzaga’s fight against Carwin…prior to Gonzaga being KO’ed). He also needs to be on the lookout for Gonzaga’s potent BJJ skills. Though Dos Santos is the overwhelming favourite, Gonzaga’s fighting credentials are much better than he’s given credit for. Training with BlackHouse, Dos Santos has ample experience with talented grapplers and BJJ fighters. It is difficult to see how Dos Santos could lose this fight though since it’s expected to be his toughest bout to date. It might go to a decision if Gonzaga successfully brings the fight to the ground.

The main event should cap an exciting evening, as the LHW bout between Jon "Bones" Jones and Brandon "The Truth" Vera features two highly skilled strikers with impressive power. Jones (-240) is the favourite over Vera (+190), as his string of early finishes earned him the reputation of being able to walk on water, turn water into wine and accomplish similar feats. His seemingly endless arsenal of tricks also helped him gain that credibility (spinning back elbows and back fists, unorthodox throws, spinning back kicks, etc.)  His last outing against Matt Hamill, before his disqualification for illegal elbows, showed how well-rounded Jones had become, pushing the pace and never allowing the sure-footed Hamill to get comfortable. Vera’s technical Muay Thai striking, cardio and experience (fights against T. Sylvia, R. Couture, F. Werdum, and K. Jardine) all contribute to make this fight Jones’ biggest and most well-rounded challenge to date. As a side note, during the UFC’s preview show, Vera stated his objective for the fight consisted of delaying Jones’ meteoric rise to the top of the UFC’s food chain. Sports psychologists everywhere will have noted Vera’s awkward confidence in that statement. Will it reflect in the Octagon? Likely so. Jones wins by UD.

Lastly, great odds are available for the undercard LHW bout opposing Eliot Marshall (+140) to Vladimir Matyushenko (-170). Matyushenko’s experience and strength should prevail, and those odds make for a good return.

Lines from Betus.com

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