2010 March Madness: Is Seven Seed BYU a Final Four Sleeper?

Any fan of BYU basketball in the last 25 years has experienced one thing over and over again—regular season success coupled with underwhelming postseason performance.

BYU has the most tournament appearances (25) of any program that has not made the Final Four.

In their last seven tournament games, they are 0-7. The last two years, BYU fans have suffered through disappointing losses to Texas A&M.

Suffice to say, BYU's history suggests no reason to suggest a deep run in the tourney.

Yet I've been shocked to read several notable writers from notable sites picking BYU to go all the way to the Final Four, including Stewart Mandel from SI.com in this article.

Much of the reason for people picking BYU as a potential Cinderella has to do with their ridiculously high Pomeroy ranking, which has proven to be a great predictor of future success in the NCAA tournament.

Last year the Pomeroy rankings accurately predicted 13 of the teams that made the Sweet 16, six of the Elite Eight, two of the Final Four, and one of the two teams in the championship game.

Most notably, they predicted that North Carolina would win the championship game after ranking the Tar Heels No. 1 heading into the NCAA tournament. North Carolina was third in the RPI.

Anyone who has filled out a bracket knows that is an incredible success rate.

BYU comes into the tournament ranked seventh in the Pomeroy efficiency ratings.

Only Syracuse has a better Pomeroy rating in the West region. BYU can't even meet them until the Elite Eight. BYU's strength, outside shooting, and offensive efficiency match up well against Syracuse's 2-3 zone.

Any team that makes a run in the tournament needs a go-to guy. BYU may have the best go-to guy in the country.

Jimmer Fredette is the most efficient player in the country according to Ken Pomeroy's individual player efficiency rankings. These ratings are similar to John Hollinger's NBA PER ratings.

I really like BYU to get past Florida in the first round. I wouldn't even be surprised by a BYU blowout.

However, I just don't see the Cougars getting past Kansas State. Kansas State is almost like a better version of UNLV, a conference rival that has been BYU's kryptonite in the Mountain West for the last four years. Kansas State is athletic, smart, talented, and plays very tough man-to-man defense.

But if the Cougars can get past the Wildcats, they'll be playing in Salt Lake City in the regional finals.

If they get past the Wildcats, BYU matches up much better against potential Sweet 16 opponents Pittsburgh or Xavier.

Then if they faced Syracuse in the Elite Eight, BYU is as well equipped as any team in the country to pick apart their 2-3 zone with three-point sharpshooting.

Last September, no one gave BYU's football team a chance to beat third-ranked Oklahoma in Dallas. If BYU can get past Florida, they'll have a chance to pull off a similar upset over Kansas State.

If they can do that, the sky is the limit for the Cougars. BYU has the talent to beat anyone in the country and make a deep tourney run.

Unlike the media, however, the Cougars need to take it one game at a time.

If BYU can just beat Florida, they'll have a 30-win season, the first in BYU history, and the Cougars would finally end BYU's streak of futility in the NCAA Tournament.

As a current BYU student and longtime Cougar sports fan, that's all I ask. Just beat Florida.

Then BYU can worry about Kansas State.

Upon further inspection, BYU is a sleeper for the Final Four—a very deep sleeper.