Tiger Woods is Still on Pace to Surpass Jack Nicklaus, Transgressions and All

In golf, like most sports, success is measured by numbers.

How many majors did you win?

How many PGA Tour events did you win?

How much money did you earn over the course of your career?

What was your career scoring average?

Well, if its numbers that we’re talking about, here are a few numbers that demonstrate why Tiger Woods is still extremely likely to break Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 career major championship victories.  

34 – Tiger Woods’ current age.

45 – Age that Woods’ prime will likely last to.

11 – Years Woods has left in his prime.

44 – Major championships Woods will likely play between now and the age of 45.

5 – Number of majors Woods needs to win to surpass Nicklaus record of 18 career major championship victories.

28 – Woods' current winning percentage at the majors.

12 – Winning percentage Woods can drop down to and still break Nicklaus' record by the age of 45.

Despite his transgressions, knee surgeries, the increasing level of competition, etc., Woods essentially needs to win five out of his next 44 majors in order to break Nicklaus’ record.

Slash Woods’ current major championship winning percentage in half and he still easily surpasses Nicklaus’ 18 majors.  

If Woods stays on his current pace, he’s statistically likely to win 12 out of his next 44 majors bringing his career total to 26.

Like any aging athlete, Woods level of dominance is bound to wane during the later stages of his career.  His final major championship tally will likely lie somewhere in between 19 and 26.

As far as anyone knows, the human race has never been able to predict the future with any real measure of accuracy.  All we can do is make the best decisions and predictions based on the information we have.

And based on these numbers, is anyone prepared to bet against Woods winning at least five out of his next 44 majors?

We will certainly find out over the next decade.  But golf is about numbers, and these numbers are telling us a story as to how the remainder of Woods’ career is likely to play out.

Whether this story transpires as the numbers suggest is the unanswerable question.