F1 2010: The Same Old Same Old?

We've all convinced ourselves that 2010 will be a classic season, haven't we?

Optimism is part of being a sports fan. The keen anticipation before a match, or a race, or any sports event, is a key part of the fan experience. Afterwards you may kick yourself for getting so excited, but your enthusiasm will revive as the next event looms.

Our nature, it seems, is to look on the bright side of our sports interests, and were it not so then F1 would surely have withered and died, for just how often has it delivered gladiatorial battles for wins? I struggle to remember when the winner of a race has not been obvious for at least fifty laps.

There is a word often used to describe a disappointing F1 race that lacks the drama we yearn for, the word is procession. We understand the term so well because we have seen so many races in which the driver order has been constant from start to finish.

This year will be different, or so we tell ourselves. The F1 year 2010 offers a whole bunch of teams ready to fight for the glittering prizes. Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull, Mercedes, and maybe even a couple of others will be locked in combat for a season-long fiesta of hot racing action.

Yeah, right. When did that ever happen?

Isn't it more likely that one or at most two teams will swiftly emerge as dominant? Doesn't it usually go that way? And if the past is a guide to the forthcoming season, we shall have a shrewd idea after Bahrain, and cold certainty after Australia.

Maybe we've grasped at the 2010 rule changes as offering more prospects of on-track action. Possibly we have thought that the ending of in-race refuelling will force drivers to make overtaking moves instead of waiting for their opponents to pit.

Alas, there will still be pit-stops for tyre changes.

If driver X attempts to muscle past driver Y he inevitable runs the risk of car-to-car contact. His team will not thank him for throwing away a position and wrecking an expensive car, and the FIA could penalise him for causing an avoidable collision, it's happened before.

It will be much safer for X to wait for Y to stop for a tyre change. Safer, but with zero entertainment value.

When the 2010 season has ended, when the tumult and the shouting has died away, will we be left to conclude that it was the same old same old?

I passionately hope not.