The Likelihood Of Fedor Surviving in The UFC

Fedor Emelianenko is considered by many to be the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. But the question remains: how would he do in the UFC? Widely esteemed to hold the best fighters in the world, the UFC has yet to sign "The Last Emperor," and as a result, a lot of speculation surrounding the performance of his potential addition to the UFC regularly manifests itself in MMA articles and online post.

As a result, I wanted to do a detailed look at what Emelianenko would have to offer if he signed with the UFC and, if possible, determine a likely outcome of his being put in the mix of the UFC heavyweight division. Emelianenko's victories can be broken down into the following:

-16 submissions, including 6 arm bars, 6 rear naked chokes and a few kimuras.

-7 decisions, each of which was unanimous.

-6 TKOs, which were mainly by punches.

-2 KOs, both of which were by punches.

In gauging Emelianenko's ability to fight the top UFC competition of today, I chose to break down the fights of 5 of the top fighters he has faced.

-Andrei Arlovski 15-7-0 (fought on 1/24/2009): Fedor knocked Arlovski out in 3:14 of round 1 by punch. Arlovski had been on a five fight win streak, but before those wins he had back-to-back losses against Tim Sylvia.  

-Mark Coleman 16-10-0 (fought on 4/25/2004 and 10/21/2006): In 2004, Fedor submitted Coleman by armbar in 2:11 of round 1. In 2006, Fedor submitted Coleman by armbar in 1:15 of round 2. Coleman had already lost to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira before the first match as well as to "Cro Cop" before the second match.

-Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic 26-7-2 (fought on 8/28/2005): Fedor was granted a unanimous decision. Filipovic had been on a seven fight win streak when he faced Emelianenko, but he had lost to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira before they fought.  

-Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 32-6-1 (fought on 3/16/2003 and 12/31/2004): Fedor won both matches by unanimous decision. Nogueira had been on a five fight win streak since he had first fought Emelianenko in 2003. Before that, though, he had not lost to any of the other top four fighters listed here, but after his second fight with Emelianenko he beat Tim Sylvia.     

-Tim Sylvia 25-6-0 (fought on 7/19/2008): Fedor submitted Sylvia in 0:36 of round 1. Sylvia had previously lost to Andrei Arlovski and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, although he later came back to beat Arlovski twice.  

As far as judging Emelianenko's potential success in the UFC, one might naturally reference the victories he has with three former UFC champions; but the key word here is former. Andrei Arlovski was the UFC heavyweight champ for nearly a year, but he had attained the title by default since Frank Mir was removed from competition for medical issues. Granted he defended the title once, Arlovski had not beaten Frank Mir to initially earn it while he soon lost it to Tim Sylvia.

Mark Coleman was defeated twice by Emelianenko, but he was nearly 40 the first time they fought and past his prime for both matches. Tim Sylvia lost quickly to Emelianenko, and this victory was a good demonstration of Emelianenko's fighting ability as Tim Sylvia was in his prime during their match. Nonetheless, when Emelianenko beat each of these three fighters, they had all been passed up for the title by more challenging competition. In other words, he never beat the former UFC heavyweight champs when they were at peak conditioning.

An analysis of the current heavyweight champion and a few of its future prospects is appropriate here in order to make a comparison between their fighting styles/success rate as well as Emelianenko's for the purpose of determining likelihood of victory if they ever did meet in competition. First up, Emelianenko.  

-Fedor Emelianenko 31-1-0: The biggest threat that Emelianenko offers to UFC competition is his skill with submissions and ground-and-pounds. Without a doubt, he has some distinct punching power; but given his record, he often prefers to finish fights by submission or ground-and-pound rather than by strikes. There's no doubt that Fedor can stand with some of the biggest guys in MMA and succeed, but just looking at his history alone, it indicates that he capitalizes more off of the clinch and wrestling to subdue and defeat his opponents.

The following is a list includes the current heavyweight champion and a few strong prospects that will more than likely soon compete for the UFC title.

-Shane Carwin 11-0-0: Carwin is a force to be reckoned with. He has extensive wrestling experience and can force submissions. He can also quickly knocked his opponents out in the past, but a potential downside is his cardio. The majority of his fights have ended in under one and a half minutes, so we don't know if Carwin can go the distance of a championship match demanding 5 rounds. Being strong, powerful and unbeaten, though, he is a major threat to anyone he fights as he hasn't displayed much weakness. In any troubling situations he has encountered, he has successfully come through. All of these faculties could easily work against Emelianenko given the right opportunity.

-Brock Lesnar 4-1-0: The current UFC heavyweight champion, Lesnar offers a unique combination of power, strength, speed and agility. Although he is not as experienced as his current competition, his extensive wrestling experience provides a difficult challenge for any contender, including Emelianenko, and Lesnar's skill is steadily growing.

-Frank Mir 13-4-0: The majority of Mir's wins have come about by submission. However, he has heavy hands when they make contact. In a wrestling match, he would at least match Emelianenko as Mir is a complete expert in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and effectively uses his mass to out-wrestle many opponents. It's standing and trading with Emelianenko that Mir should avoid; otherwise a clinch/wrestling match would add to Mir's odds.

-Cain Velasquez 8-0-0: Velasquez has a background in wrestling, though all but one of his fights have ended in TKOs by punches. The one victory that wasn't attained by a TKO was a unanimous decision against Cheick Kongo. Velasquez has a lot of talent, but he's still growing as a fighter. Nevertheless, beating Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in the first round is no small feat as even Emelianenko couldn't pull this off the two times he fought Nogueira. Being unbeaten and having a wrestling arsenal in reserve, nobody really knows of any weaknesses in Velasquez's game, which adds to a potential advantage against Emelianenko.      

When looking at Emelianenko's 31-1-0 record, it's quite remarkable. However, with some scrutiny, there is a seeming vulnerability that might just hinder his performance if he were to ever sign with the UFC. The toughest fighter out of the top five that he has faced is without a doubt Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Both times he fought Nogueira, it went to a decision. Granted he won both fights with a unanimous decision, he didn't dominate Nogueira.

In fact, after having been TKOd in the first round in his most recent fight, fans may actually be witnessing Nogueira's weaknesses for the first time, which would accent the difference in competition between the UFC and Pride. There's no doubt that Nogueira's a tough fighter; he's easily one of the best heavyweights in the world.

However, usually the top heavyweights with records comparable to Nogueira's don't go down in the first round to a fighter with only seven fights under his belt. I believe this goes to show how much tougher the competition is in the UFC as opposed to Pride where both Emelianenko and Nogueira easily dominated.  

How was Emelianenko able to handle Tim Sylvia in 36 seconds? He caught him quickly with a punch and followed it to the ground. Nevertheless, I believe that this is a hole in Sylvia's game more than a degree of invincibility in Emelianenko. Randy Couture exposed the exact same hole when he fought Sylvia, except they ended up going the distance with Couture winning by unanimous decision.

Nevertheless, when Couture fought Sylvia, he was 43 years old and, in my opinion, somewhat past his prime; on the contrary, when Emelianenko fought Sylvia, he was 31 years old and well in his prime. Even though Emelianenko disabled Sylvia very impressively, Sylvia has been stunned before because he's not the quickest fighter. Since Randy stunned him too, this works to neutralize Emelianenko's mystique a bit.  

Despite Emelianenko's amazing record, it's not perfect. His one recorded loss was due to a doctor stoppage in RINGS: King of Kings on 12/22/2000. Emelianenko was elbowed above one of his eyes, and since elbows were illegal in that particular contest and due to the tournament format, this was recorded as a loss instead of a "no contest." However, one fight that should have been recorded as a loss was when Emelianenko faced Ricardo Arona on 12/22/2000.

If you watch the entire fight, Emelianenko was out-wrestled and remained mounted for most of it and had very little effective offense in comparison to Arona. How Emelianenko was favored with a unanimous decision for that fight is beyond comprehension. Given that this fight showed Emelianenko's weakness in wrestling, it means those same weaknesses can be exploited in the UFC since the four top contenders in the heavyweight division all have wrestling backgrounds.   

If he had been competing in the UFC, Emelianenko's one recorded loss would have been a legitimate TKO due to a doctor stoppage. That's not to suggest that Emelianenko would not have thrown elbows himself, but given his history, he more than likely still would have utilized his wrestling and clinch work when he was elbowed in the RINGS tournament. This only goes to show weaknesses in Emelianenko's game, which are expected from time to time. However, the question is whether or not he can minimize those holes if he ever decides to compete at the top level.

Considering that Emelianenko has humbled huge opponents in the past, one should never take a Carwin, Mir, Lesnar or Velasquez victory for granted. Emelianenko is dangerous as he often catches his opponents off guard with stunning speed and great clinch wrestling. Having a black belt in Judo, he is a master at offsetting his opponents and taking them to the mat where they can be ground-and-pounded.

Then again, Emelianenko has never fought in the UFC; and though he's beaten former UFC heavyweight champions, he has never fought a UFC fighter that is still in his prime. I’m willing to bet that Carwin, Lesnar, Mir and Velasquez would offer a tough fight against Emelianenko and that at least one would beat him. These are all talented fighters in their primes and they've displayed little weakness if any. Many of them offer strong striking and excellent wrestling.

As Arona expertly demonstrated, Emelianenko can be dominated if he's in the bottom position on the ground. With excellent, massive and powerful wrestlers like Lesnar and Mir, Emelianenko would at least have his hands full as they, too, could expose his weaknesses if he's on the bottom. Alas, until he commits to competing against fighters that are currently in the UFC, I guess we'll never know just how truly dominant "The Last Emperor" would be against the best in the world.