Horizon League Tournament Preview: Can Anyone Stop Butler?

Tuesday night marks the official beginning of the postseason as conference tournaments begin in the Big South, Horizon League, and Ohio Valley Conference.

In the Horizon League tournament, the question that will be asked around the league and across the nation is, can anyone upset Butler?

The task is a daunting one. Butler ran through the Horizon League with an undefeated 18-0 league record, only the fourth team in league history to do so and the first since the Horizon League went to an 18-game league schedule. The next closest team, Wright State, finished six games back with a 12-6 record.

Butler placed three players on the Horizon League All-League First Team; Matt Howard, Shelvin Mack, and conference player of the year Gordon Hayward. The other two members of the starting five, Ronald Nored and Willie Veasley, earned spots on the Horizon League All-Defensive Team. 

Throw in the fact that the Bulldogs are led by Horizon League Coach of the Year Brad Stevens and are hosts of the tournament as long as Butler remains in the bracket, the task seems impossible.

But Butler had the championship game on its home court last year at Hinkle Fieldhouse, and Cleveland State walked away the victors on their way to a first-round NCAA tournament upset against Wake Forest. So there is a chance at an upset.

Wright State is the No. 2 seed for the tournament and under the Horizon League tournament format, will receive a bye along with Butler to the semifinals on Saturday night.

Wright State is led by junior guard Vaughn Duggins. Duggins averaged 14.5 points per game in route to being named to the Horizon League All-League Second Team and All-Defensive Team. Despite having a usually solid defense that ranks in the top 70 of defensive efficiency according to kenpom.com, Wright State could not slow down Butler's offense. The Bulldogs were able to pile up offensive efficiency numbers exceeding 1.2 points per possession in both of Butler's 12-point wins against the Raiders.

The other eight Horizon League teams will have to battle through two games to join Butler and Wright State in the semifinals.

No. 3 seed Wisconsin-Green Bay is led by Horizon League All-League First Team guard Rahmon Fletcher. Fletcher was hampered by a knee injury for parts of the year and missed two games because of the injury. Green Bay shoots 38 percent from three-point range, so the Phoenix could be a threat if they catch fire from outside. But Tod Kowalczyk's squad, like Wright State, had trouble slowing down Butler in their two matchups, surrendering 1.2 and 1.19 points per possession in 72-49 and 75-57 losses to the Bulldogs.

The Phoenix will host No. 10 seed Youngstown State in the first round. Youngstown State was looking to build upon last year's sixth-place finish, but stumbled to a 2-16 league mark this season. The Penguins don't do anything particularly well and most likely won't make it past Tuesday. Green Bay swept the season series with Youngstown State this season, winning 75-67 and 69-55.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee won the three-way tie-break for fourth place and will be the No. 4 seed in the tournament. Milwaukee features Horizon League All-League Second Team guard Ricky Franklin, who averaged 15.1 points per game this season, and cult legend James "Big Lumber" Eayrs.

The Panthers were one of the best teams in the nation defending their own glass this season, ranking 14th in offensive rebounds allowed, something that can be an advantage against Butler, who starts three players under 6'4". Milwaukee gave Butler a game in the building formerly known as The MECCA, losing only by seven in early February.

Milwaukee will host No. 9 seed UIC on Tuesday. Not much was expected out of the Flames this season, as they were predicted to finish ninth in the preseason poll. UIC was one of the worst shooting teams in the nation, ranking 326th in effective field goal percentage at just 43.9 percent. The Flames did play two close games against Milwaukee, losing by just five and four points in the two matchups. So an upset is possible here.

Cleveland State earned the No. 5 seed and will host Loyola (Chicago) in the first round. The Vikings are looking to defend their Horizon League tournament championship from last year. Cleveland State placed Norris Cole on the Horizon League All-League First Team and D'Aundray Brown on the All-Defensive Team this season.

The Vikings have been taking care of the ball and forcing a bunch of turnovers on the defensive end, ranking in the top 30 in that category. But Cleveland State faltered down the stretch, losing four of their last five league games.

The Ramblers, the No. 8 seed, will be looking to avenge a couple of close losses to Cleveland State. Loyola lost 62-57 in early January and 59-56 in early February. The Ramblers feature a balanced attack led by Horizon League Sixth Man of the Year Walt Gibler. Gibler, a 6'7" sophomore, averaged 11 points in just 22 minutes per game.

Loyola came within one point of Butler in a 48-47 slug fest at the Gentile Center and have been a thorn in the side of the Bulldogs, beating them twice at Hinkle in the past four years. However, the Ramblers have struggled down the stretch, losing their last four games and six of their last seven. But they could sneak up on Butler if they can put a couple of wins together to get to the semis.

The final first-round matchup features No. 6 Valparaiso and No. 7 seed Detroit. Valpo is led by Horizon League Newcomer of the Year, All-League Second Team member and Horizon League leading scorer Brandon Wood, who averaged 17.5 points per game. The Crusaders' Cory Johnson also earned a spot on the All-Newcomer Team, scoring 15.3 points per game.

Valpo almost knocked off Butler in their last game when the Bulldogs were missing Gordon Hayward, who was out with back spasms. The Crusaders can put the ball in the basket, averaging 1.08 points per possession, second best in the league. Valpo just can't stop anybody from scoring, allowing a league worst 1.08 points per possession.

Detroit was the toughest challenger to Butler's undefeated league mark. The Titans lost by two points in overtime to Butler on Jan. 10 in Detroit. Detroit also played the Bulldogs tough in Indianapolis, losing only 63-58.

The Titans totally revamped their team that only won two league games last season. Three players from Detroit, Chase Simon, Eli Holman, and Xavier Keeling, made the All-Newcomer Team in the Horizon League this season. Valpo and Detroit split the season series, each winning their home game. So Valpo gets the slight edge as the home team in this matchup.

Although an upset is unlikely, bubble teams from around the country will be keeping a close eye on the proceedings this year. A Butler loss will send a bubble team home as Butler is all but assured an at-large berth if the Bulldogs fail to claim the Horizon League's automatic bid.

Horizon League Tournament Bracket

First Round (at home sites)

Tuesday, March 2

No. 8 Loyola (Chicago) (14-15, 5-13) at No. 5 Cleveland State (15-16, 10-8), 7 PM EST

No. 9 UIC (8-21, 3-15) at No. 4 Wisconsin-Milwaukee (18-13, 10-8), 8 PM EST

No. 10 Youngstown State (8-21, 2-16) at No. 3 Wisconsin-Green Bay (20-11, 11-7), 8 PM EST

No. 7 Detroit (18-13, 9-9) at No. 6 Valparaiso (15-16, 10-8), 8 PM EST

Quarterfinals (at Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis)

Friday, March 5

Detroit/Valparaiso winner vs. Youngstown State/Wisconsin-Green Bay winner, 6 PM EST

Loyola/Cleveland State winner vs. UIC/Wisconsin-Milwaukee winner, 8:20 PM EST

Semifinals (at Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis)

Saturday, March 6

Detroit/Valparaiso/Youngstown State/Wisconsin-Green Bay vs. Wright State (19-11, 12-6), 5:15 PM EST

Loyola/Cleveland State/UIC/Wisconsin-Milwaukee vs. Butler (26-4, 18-0), 8 PM EST

Final (at higher remaining seed)

Tuesday, March 9

9 PM. EST