Fantasy Pick 'Em: 2010 Shelby American

Two races down, 34 to go, as the Sprint Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for this year’s Shelby American. Kyle Busch will attempt to defend his 2009 race win after two consecutive 14th place finishes to start the year.

Jimmie Johnson won three consecutive Vegas races from 2005-07 and won last week in California. He was the best of my five suggestions last week. My lead pick, Matt Kenseth, had a seventh-place run, while my dark horse, David Ragan, was 23rd. Of my other picks, Busch was 14th, and pole-sitter Jamie McMurray wound up 17th. All in all, it was a much better day than Daytona, and everybody was in the top 25, so the day wasn’t a disaster.

I know it’s an easy pick, but can you fault me for taking Johnson this weekend? It somehow feels okay to me because of his off and on nature at Vegas. In eight starts at the track, he has three wins, but only one other top-10. During the past two years, he hasn’t finished in the top 20, although he led the most laps in last year’s event before a pit road mistake took him off the lead lap.

It’s hard to come up with a true dark horse for Vegas. The top drivers in the series usually do well, and the lesser teams don’t, according to the record books. But Bobby Labonte may be as close as it gets. He was fifth last year for the Hall of Fame Racing team that no longer runs, and he may be able to pull some similar magic for TRG Motorsports this weekend. He’s got a decent Vegas record, with an average finish of 15.7 in 12 starts, two poles, and five top-10s, with four of those finishes fifth or better.

The other three drivers I’m picking, as per tradition:

Jeff Burton has the best average finish of anybody at Vegas, and even the fact that he’s started every race at the track hasn’t weighed that down. He’s the only driver with an average finish in the single digits (9.8), and he won this race in 1999 and 2000. Save a disaster in 2001, he’s never finished worse than 17th.

Kyle Busch runs at a torrid pace at his home track. His average start of 7.7 is only second to brother Kurt, at least for drivers with multiple Vegas starts, but Rowdy is significantly better than his big brother in average finish by more than nine places. As I’ve already mentioned, he won this race last year. Since joining Sprint Cup full-time, his worst Vegas finish is 11th. Talk about stepping up for the home crowd.

Finally, Denny Hamlin completes my horrible cop-out of picking the drivers with the top four average finishes at Vegas. I know, I know. But Hamlin is outside the top 20 in points—I feel like I should get some leeway there. He also hasn’t led any laps at Vegas in his career, which would make a victory somewhat of an upset, right? He qualifies mid-pack (average start 23.5), but has an average finish of 11.0, the biggest positive difference for any active driver, meaning if he wins, he’ll have earned it by passing a lot of cars and maintaining the lead.