The Most Important Game of the Year: UConn - West Virginia Preview

Yes...tonight's game in Hartford between UConn and No. 8 West Virginia is absolutely the most important game of the Huskies' difficult, yet still hopeful, season. If there was ever a time to use the phrase "must win", tonight is the night.

The Huskies managed to get a convincing win over then-No. 3 Villanova last week on "Big Monday" that looked like it might be the start of something good. It looked like this talented but flawed team was finally "getting it."

They followed that up with a workman-like victory of Rutgers, a team that came into the game with some momentum of their own. Rutgers had won five of their last six conference games, including a win against top ten foe Georgetown.

Rutgers attempted to exploit the well known UConn weaknesses by playing in a 2-3 zone for the majority of the game. In the first half, the Huskies were sometimes sloppy, but generally patient. The shots they took were good ones. The second half was pure UConn domination...particularly on the boards. Seldom have I seen a team so thoroughly out-rebounded as Rutgers was in the second half.

The win at Rutgers accomplished several things. First, it gave the Huskies their first back-to-back winning streak in a month and the confidence that goes with that. Second, it showed the kids (and potential opponents) that they have the ability to attack a zone effectively if they simply be patient and stick to the game plan. The last thing it did was get UConn back in the "bubble" conversation.

This is where WVU comes in.

UConn is now squarely on the bubble for the NCAA tournament. They are far from a lock, but things are not as hopeless as they were less than two weeks ago.

The Huskies are now 16-11 (6-8 Big East) with games at home against Louisville, at Notre Dame, and at South Florida remaining on the regular season schedule. They are capable of winning all three of those, and if they were to lose tonight but win their last three, their combination of conference record, overall record and strength of schedule should keep them in the discussion. They would probably need one victory in the Big East tournament to secure a bid.

The best path to the NCAA tournament for UConn? Just win out the regular season.

A victory tonight against West Virginia and closing out the season with two more wins (three would be better) would make a win in New York unnecessary. That is a good thing...UConn hasn't won a Big East tournament game since reaching the semi-finals in 2005.

This is UConn's sixth meeting with a top ten ranked team having previously beaten Texas and Villanova, and losing to Duke, Kentucky, and Syracuse. 

A 3-3 record against top ten teams, 19 or 20 wins overall, a .500 or better in the toughest conference in college basketball, a SoS around No. 2, an RPI in the 40s? That is a team that should be in the field of 65.

The key tonight, as in every game, is Kemba Walker. Walker, named Big East Player of the Week for his efforts against 'Nova and Rutgers, has to maintain his newly found poise. When Kemba goes on his kamikaze drives, the whole team goes into panic mode. Walker, Jerome Dyson, and Stanley Robinson all start attacking the basket with 1-on-5 drives. If Kemba is patient and running the offense, UConn is a very, very good team.

West Virginia (21-5, 10-4 Big East) is already a lock for the NCAA tournament. They are a quality team, but they have also had a much easier schedule than UConn. Their non-conference schedule was a joke (outside of their game against Purdue...which they lost), and they have not fared well against the cream of the conference. Their four conference losses have been to Notre Dame, Syracuse, Villanova, and Pitt. This team can be beaten.

I think WVU will attempt to challenge UConn...go right after them in a contest of athleticism. This is also my hope...few teams in the country can beat UConn in a track meet. I don't think the WVU players are patient enough on defense to stay with an effective zone. They are also prone to jacking up quick shots...if those shots don't fall, it plays right into the Huskies' best weapon — the fast break.

Prediction? Yep...UConn 82 WVU 72. Book it.