If Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Makes a Comeback, It Will Begin This Weekend.

Last weekend, the Daytona 500 was a classic case of the end justifying the means.

Despite a total of more than two hours worth of delays due to a pothole in the track, causing some fans to either leave the track or change the channels on their televisions, the finish was one of the more exciting in recent memory.

Some might call it contrived with the new rule regarding multiple green-white-checkered finishes at the end of a race, but the show put on by the drivers in that final lap was nothing short of epic, with Jamie McMurray managing to survive wrecks and an onslaught from several hungry drivers to take the checkered flag in what is considered the biggest stock car race in the world.

One of those drivers McMurray beat is the only one capable of garnering headlines for finishing second, Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

When the field took the green flag at lap 199, two laps short of the scheduled distance, Earnhardt was 22nd. Two green-white-checkered finish attempts and a charge that drew shades of a certain late mustachioed driver later, Earnhardt was on the bumper of McMurray’s Chevy as they took the checkered flag.

It was the most aggressive the driver of the 88 had been in a long time.

And on a day where Hendrick Motorsports struggled as a whole, the driver who finished 22 positions behind his teammates (who finished one-two-three, by the way) in the points was the only driver in Hendrick equipment who scored a top ten.

But let’s quell the talks of comeback for now. While “Junior” may have looked like his famous father in the black number three in the closing moment of Sunday’s Daytona 500, for all of last season, he was no better than A.J. Allmendinger. This is not a stab at either Earnhardt or Allmendinger, it is just the truth.

Speedweeks was very good to the 88 team, who was fast all weekend. The Daytona 500, however, is not necessarily indicative of how a strong a team will be over the course of a season. For example, Michael Waltrip has won the Daytona 500 twice. He has never finished in the top ten in points in his career.

Last year, Matt Kenseth won the race, and even the next one. He still missed the Chase for the Cup, NASCAR’s version of a playoff.

And Earnhardt only finished second this season.

The true evidence of whether or not Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is “back” will be based off the team’s performance over the next couple of months starting with one of his worst tracks statistically, Auto Club Speedway.

How bad has Earnhardt been there?

In sixteen starts at the track, he only has four top tens.

Ouch.

Want more?  In those sixteen starts, Junior has more DNF’s – three because of accident, two because of engine failure – than top tens.

Double ouch.

But it gets worse (or better, if you don’t have a card membership to Jr. Nation). In his last five starts, Earnhardt has finished worse than 25th four times, finishing 40th twice.

I guess you get the point by now.

It’s not all gloom and doom for his multitude of fans, however. There is some strong evidence to show he can be competitive this weekend.

In his first race with Hendrick Motorsports at this track two years ago, he was blazing fast all weekend before being taken out in the opening laps when Casey Mears hit a wet spot on the track and collected him. In the spring race last season, Earnhardt suffered engine problems and finished 39th. In the fall, he was relegated to 25th when a late multicar wreck took out several top ten contenders, including him.

Call it an excuse if you want, but bad luck has had a lot to do with Junior’s problems at this track.

It is well known that Rick Hendrick, owner of Hendrick Motorsports, whom Earnhardt drives for, made it a point this offseason to put extra time and effort into making the 88 team competitive again for 2010.

Right now, it’s so far, so good, with the team scoring one top five in as many races. But again, it’s one race, and as stated earlier, it’s a race that doesn’t exactly serve as an exact barometer of how a team’s season is going to go.

If Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is going to return to the success he had during the early 2000s, the road back begins with Friday’s practice at Auto Club Speedway.

And if he’s being interviewed in victory lane after Sunday’s race, then let the comeback talk run rampant.