Is Jonathan Papelbon the Best Fantasy Baseball Closer? I Don't Think So…

Eric StashinFeb 18, 2010

As I’ve done a few mock drafts recently, it has become more and more surprising to me the order that closers come off the board. The first time I saw Jonathan Papelbon as the first closer taken I was able to dismiss it. It was just a one-time thing, right?

Well, when I did another mock draft last night and once again Papelbon was the first closer taken I have to begin to wonder what is going on?

Don’t get me wrong, Papelbon is among of the elite closers in the league, but is he really the best one available?

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Before we answer that question, let’s look at his line from 2009:

1 Wins
38 Saves
68.0 Innings
1.85 ERA
1.15 WHIP
76 Strikeouts (10.06 K/9)
24 Walks (3.18 BB/9)
.297 BABIP

That’s an amazing line, there’s no arguing that fact, but there are some concerns, most notably with the control. He has a career BB/9 of 2.33, so there’s a good chance he improves there, but seeing him struggle there has got to make you take notice.

Is that enough to make you say, stay away? Of course not, but it’s worth noting.

What could be a bigger issue is the number of innings he throws in a season. Just look at his totals the past four seasons:

2006 - 68.1
2007 - 58.1
2008 - 69.1
2009 - 68.0

Compare that to someone like Jonathan Broxton, who has thrown 76 innings or more in three out of the last four seasons, including a year of 82. Is it a huge difference? No, but when you strikeout batters at the rates that these two guys do, an extra 12 innings means an extra 13 or 14 strikeouts. That adds definite value.

It also gives his ERA and WHIP a little bit of a greater weight on your entire team’s. Again, not a huge difference, but it certainly is worth noting.

What about the value of Joe Nathan, who has had an ERA above 1.88 twice since 2004, when he became a full-time closer? Over that same span he’s had a WHIP above 0.98 once (and never above 1.02) and has never had less than 36 saves. Why is he being valued below Papelbon?

Is it because of the fact that the Papelbon pitches for the Red Sox? That’s great and all, but it’s just not enough to make me say that he should be the first closer off the board. The Dodgers and Twins are no slouches and should offer plenty of save opportunities for their respective closers.

Let’s take a look at what I’m projecting for Papelbon in 2010:

65.0 IP, 4 W, 38 SV, 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 72 K (9.97 K/9), 18 BB (2.49 BB/9)

Don’t get me wrong, those are tremendous statistics and ones that I’d love to have on any of my teams, but is it really enough to make me go out of my way to select him as the first closer taken? No, it’s not. If no other closer had been taken and I was itching to take one, Papelbon wouldn’t be my selection and it’s nothing against his abilities.

It’s just that Broxton and Nathan, just as examples, are better options in my mind based on what they bring to the table.

What about you? Do you see Papelbon as the best closer available? If you do, why?

If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5), click here .

Make sure to check out some of our 2010 projections, including: